Who will replace Andy MacPhail?

It was announced last night that Andy MacPhail will move on to do what every important person does when he leaves his position: spend time with his family.  What matters more is that he will not be spending any time at all with the Orioles.  He turned down Angelos' offer to return to the Orioles in a myriad of capacities.  However, four and a half years of running the team was enough.  It has been mentioned that MacPhail had control over the team.  It has also been mentioned that there are certain people who are "made men" in the organization whom MacPhail could not touch.  It has also been suggested that deals with Wieters, Markakis, and even Roberts involved the hand of Angelos.  We will likely not know what happened or what did not.  I do think though that MacPhail had more freedom to move than his predecessors had since Syd Thrift's tenure.  I honestly think Thrift probably had the freest hand of any GM under Angelos.

This leaves the team in a situation where they are trying to determine where to go from here and to what degree the new hire will have control over the team.  In fact, it has been a position where GM candidates (and individuals were contacted before MacPhail made his decision) have specifically asked for a descriptions of duties and responsibilities.  Many individuals who are considered potential top talent for a GM position are likely to be weary about what it means t be a Baltimore GM.  Frank Wren's issues and Jim Duquette's rants suggest that Angelos has, in the past, wielded a very heavy hand.  Buck Showalter's presence may be a concern as well.  Showalter is someone who Angelos supposedly offered the GM position to and we know how an Angelos confidant can deep six a GM in spectacular fashion (see Thrift doing in Wren).

Recently I was asked if I would take a position in the Orioles front office if I was asked (note: no one associated with the Orioles front office asked me this).  Simply, yes.  There are only 30 front offices in baseball.  These jobs are quite difficult to come by, so if a baseball team, any baseball team, offered me a position, I would likely sign a contract that I considered fair.  This is even more true for a GM.  There are only 30 slots.  Executive will put up with a lot to be the king even if he is more of a viceroy.  Anyway, I digree.

If you are interested in reading more about potential GMs for the Orioles, check out our Life Without Andy series.

2011 Minor League Recap

Beginning Monday we will be reviewing this past season in the O's Minor League system. The breakdown will be as follows:

Monday (10/10) - Gulf Coast O's and NY-Penn (SS-A Aberdeen), with brief look at the DSL O's
Tuesday (10/11) - Sally (A Delmarva)
Wedensday (10/12) - Carolina League (A-Adv. Frederick)
Thursday (10/13) - Eastern League (AA Bowie)
Friday (10/14) - International League (AAA Norfolk)

The following week we'll look at the Minor League Player of the Year (as selected by us), and will give a quick recap of the O's prospects that did not log time in the system this year. I'm off to Jupiter, Florida for a scouting trip (WWBA World Championship) October 20-24, but we'll jump into our prospect rankings when I return.

Enjoy the playoffs; see you on Monday!

Mark Reynolds' 2011 is Third Worst for a Guy Hitting 37 home runs or more

At least Reynolds fields better than he dresses.

I have read in a few places how Mark Reynolds was a great revelation this past year and gave the Orioles a true power hitter.  It is certainly true that he is an amazing power hitter and his bat does grade out as above average.  He works the count well, gets his walks, and crushes pitches he squares up on.  Half of Reynolds' hits are fly balls and a quarter of them leave the yard.  It is all very impressive.  However, his difficulties in using his bat to get on base is rather inadequate and drops the value of his bat.  His offense basically profiles as above average for third base, below average for first base, and average for left field.  His defense erodes the rest of his value and makes it arguable that even with the home run capability, he might be more of a role player coming off the bench against southpaws than as a starter.  Mark Reynolds really is not someone the team should consider for an extension.

It is remarkable how peculiar this past season was.  His offense and his defense (split between third and first) was worth 30 and -25 runs, respectively.  This earned him a rWAR of 0.5.  For context, your league average starter should be worth about 2 rWAR.  Below the 2 mark and you need to seriously consider the guy to be a spare part.  Amazingly, David Hernandez, one of the guys the Orioles traded for Reynolds, earned a 1.1 rWAR this past year and is making a tenth of Reynolds' salary.  The conclusion that Hernandez in the bullpen would have been better or at least equal to Reynolds in the field was one I would not have been comfortable making last year.  I knew Reynolds' defense was poor, but it was such a train wreck this past season that it effectively obscured his hitting.

It should be clear that Reynolds has no place on this team at third base.  It should also be clear that you are looking at an average 1B at best.  At DH, he would be more valuable than Vlad, but Vlad performed like a replacement player this past year.  I think it all goes back to seeing how well Reynolds can play left field and then not picking up the option as the team wanders into the 2012 off season.

List of the five worst seasons by rWAR for players who hit 37 or more homeruns.

1) Dave Kingman - 1982, 37 HR, 204/285/432, -0.2 rWAR
Only player to hit 37 home runs or more and have a negative rWAR.
 
2) Dante Bichette - 1995, 40 HR, 340/364/620, 0.3 rWAR
Evidence of how crazy a run environment Coors Field was and how awful of an outfielder Bichette was.

3) Mark Reynolds - 2011, 37 HR, 221/323/483, 0.5 rWAR
Good offense mitigated by terrible defense at third and first.

4) Cecil Fielder - 1996, 39 HR, 252/350/484, 0.5 rWAR
I could see the same exact line for his son when he is 32.

5) Adam Dunn - 2006, 40 HR, 234/365/490, 0.6 rWAR
Just miserable defense, pure and simple.

JP Ricciardi? O no.

JP Ricciardi

The colorful site, Drunk Jays Fans, is a good read almost every day, but make sure you are not at work as it can be a bit unsuitable.  One of the more comical parts over the years has been their amazing coverage of the J.P. Ricciardi era in Toronto.  Ricciardi at times was a train wreck.  JP said some outright foolish things about Adam Dunn and then bizarrely lied about calling to apologize to Dunn.  Sometimes, he comes off as a slightly less believable version of Jim Duquette.  He doled out crazy contracts to guys like Vernon Wells and Alex Rios although neither had shown consistently solid performance.  As you can imagine, Dan Connolly's inclusion of JP as a potential GM for the Orioles unsettled me a bit.

Mind you, JP has a strong pedigree.  He emerged from the A's system during Sandy Alderson's tenure and become more prominent when Billy Beane took over.  JP was a scout who quickly believed in putting more value in quantitative measures.  He was a trail blazer, a trend setter.  He was a Moneyball guy and he could not let go of the fact that Moneyball was not a static thing.  A few week's back, Keith Law discussed his time with the Jays working under JP.  From that account, JP comes off as a bit of a zealot.  Maybe failure has chilled him out some and he has become more aware that statistics is not Moneyball, but rather finding undervalued commodities.

Here is the entire list Connolly reported:

Jerry Dipoto, senior vice president, Diamondbacks
Gerry Hunsicker, senior VP, Rays
Dan Jennings, assistant general manager, Marlins
Wayne Krivsky, former special assistant to GM, Mets
Tony LaCava, assistant GM, Blue Jays
Damon Oppenheimer, scouting director, Yankees
A.J. Preller, senior director of player personnel, Rangers
Scott Proefrock, assistant GM, Phillies
J.P. Ricciardi, special assistant to GM, Mets
Scott Servais, senior director of player development, Rangers

I have reported on many of them in the past. If I were to rank them in order of preference, it would look like this:

Preller>LaCava>Jennings>Dipoto>Hunsicker>Oppenheimer>Krivky>Proefrock>Servais>JP