Life After Andy MacPhail: Newcomers Outside of the Organization

Former O's Front Office Employee Scott Proefrock

Since our last piece on potential replacement for Andy MacPhail, we have seen a good deal of conjecturing and pulling for Buck Showalter to leave the dugout and climb the management ladder.  There are many who subscribe to the belief that Buck is an accomplished franchise builder as every team he has been fired from had appeared and/or won a World Series within five or so years after his termination.  If that is not convincing for you, there are many that wax on and on about how incredibly prepared Buck is for each game.  That nuanced day-to-day preparation may serve a front office well.  Of course, the skills that make one a good manager may not necessarily make one a good General Manager.  For instance, managers are typically skilled at getting specific short term objectives whereas General Managers require long term planning and vision.  Well, that is unless you get a sweetheart deal like Ruben Amaro where you can just blow through all of your resources to keep that window wide open.

Another option that would likely work well with Buck would be to hire a young up-and-coming GM prospect who can take care of the day-to-day front office tasks while Buck gives broad organizational directives from the dugout.  This certainly could be done and some argue it is exactly what is being done in St. Louis for better or worse.  St. Louis has won a World Series, but a great deal of luck and Albert Pujols helped that occur.  Anyway, here is a list of GM prospects outside of the organization.

Rick Hahn
Assistant GM, Chicago White Sox

What is there to say about Rick Hahn that has not been said already?  He has routinely been mentioned as the top GM candidate over the past three or four years by Sports Illustrated, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus.  It appears almost every year he is offered an interview by prominent organizations and either winds up backing out of interviews or being given better terms/responsibilities within the White Sox organization.  He essentially runs the White Sox with directives handed out by Kenny Williams, so one would have to wonder whether he would find the Orioles a good destination if he had to answer to Buck as well as finding himself having to compete with a stacked AL East.  I think he certainly would be someone who Angelos would like as Hahn is very competent with running organizational duties.

Dan Jennings
Vice President, Player Personnel and Assistant General Manager, Florida Marlins

Jennings has been rumored for GM positions for about ten years now.  Last year he was a finalist in the Mets opening before losing out to Sandy Alderson.  Jennings is known as being skilled at scouting and would probably complement Buck Showalter quite well.  As a long time Florida employee, he is also well aware of Joe Jordan.  If the Orioles want more continuity along with revamping the organization to be more efficient, Jennings might be that guy and Jordan might be a great help to him.  The weakness here though is that this leaves no one in the front office in control who has experience running the day-to-day operations of the team.  Buck would need someone who is well skilled to be able to turn deals that Buck cannot do while sitting in the dugout.  I do think Jennings would be an interesting choice.

A.J. Preller
Senior Director, Player Personnel, Texas Rangers

This is my hope.  Preller is a high energy, at-all-costs type of GM and is quickly climbing through the ranks.  An often recounted story is that Preller took up Spanish while working for the Rangers in order to more freely communicate with people in Latin America, strengthening the Rangers' ability to acquire talent there.  He often is compared to his boss Jon Daniels with the same major concern: he is too inexperienced.  However, he has been employed at a high level on the baseball operations side and has been given high marks for the last several years.  The Orioles could be a good launching pad for him.  If Buck could act more like a Nolan Ryan and give Preller the freedom to fit the system to Buck's ordered shape then it might be a good pairing.  With or without Buck, Preller would be my choice.

Tyrone Brooks
Director of Baseball Operations, Pittsburgh Pirates

Brooks is an alumni of the University of Maryland, so you have some local roots here.  He has spent a lot of time working in the scouting and personnel departments for the Braves, Indians, and the Pirates.  He is another young GM prospect (at 34, I think, he is a year older than Preller) who would be willing to cede power to Buck in exchange for the chance to more directly shape an organization.  Brooks' is most known for his effort in social networking.  In 2009, he founded the Baseball Industry Network which tries to connect those interested in baseball operations to find those opportunities.  He also fits the Buck mold well as he is directly involved in high level roster management, such as the Pirates deadline deals for Ludwick and Lee.  He could be the combination of new blood, communication, and front office operation skills to be a successful GM.

Scott Proefrock
Assistant General Manager, Philadelphia Phillies

This would be the choice that makes sense to me if Andy MacPhail is involved in the hiring process.  Proefrock was a member of MacPhail's front office for several years.  It seems he left to go to the Phillies only due to them offering him a position with more responsibilities.  Proefrock has cut his teeth some more with the Phillies and would come back to Baltimore with familiarity of the current system in place, but also with new ideas and honed skills to manage the franchise.  Additionally, Proefrock's experience has largely been high level operations and contract decisions.  He is more business oriented than baseball oriented, which is something that could pair well with Buck.

My Ranking of These Five?

A.J. Preller
Rick Hahn
Dan Jennings
Tyrone Brooks
Scott Proefrock

I think Preller is a special talent.  I think Hahn could run things smoothly and am willing to blame many of that organizations' mistakes on Kenny Williams' apparent shoot from the hip strategy.  I am intrigued by Jennings' experience in scouting and developing players with Florida as well as there being some continuity with Joe Jordan.  Trust me, Jordan is not great, but he certainly is not a problem in Baltimore.  Brooks is an interesting wild card.  I find that intriguing, but am at the point here where I'd begin looking elsewhere.  Finally, I am not sure whether Proefrock has the skills to diagnose the Orioles' problems and be able to fix them.  Outside of that, I'm not sure to what extent a guy who is great at nuts and bolts is going to do for the organization.

I think that Proefrock, Preller, and Jennings are all options here.  I think it would also be accurate to say that those options are in that order.

Cup of jO's (August 4, 2011): Callis on Bundy/Bauer deals

Game Summary
Orioles 2, Royals 6
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Baltimore's quest for its first AL series win in almost two months will last at least one more night, as Jeremy Guthrie and the Birds fell to Kansas City 6-2. In what has become a frighteningly routine occurrence when Guthrie takes the hill, the Baltimore bats were nowhere to be seen, with just three runners reaching base after the third inning (two by hit and one by strikeout). Baltimore will look to Zach Britton to break his streak of "meh" starts tonight; he's opposite Jeff Francis. STATS LLC preview here.

Of interest....
Trevor Bauer became the first top 10 pick in the 2011 draft to ink a deal when he agreed to a Major League contract with a $4.45 million bonus and a structure that could allow him to earn over $7 million through its duration. Bauer, selected one pick before Orioles top pick Dylan Bundy, was this year's recipient of USA Baseball's Golden Spikes Award, as well as Baseball America's Collegiate Player of the Year Award. At first glance, it would seem that Orioles fans should be pleased that an advanced college arm selected in front of Bundy received such a "reasonable" package. After all, it would follow that a lower pick, with a riskier developmental profile, would likely be looking at a slightly lesser deal, right? Wrong.

As we have pointed out a number of times here at the Depot, bonus comps are rarely used among draft picks, and are almost never used among draft picks from different cross-sections (college vs. high school, pitcher vs. position player, two-sport vs. one-sport, etc.). Baseball America's Jim Callis sums up the issue well in a discussion with MASN's Steve Melewski:

"Bauer is a college pitcher but a high school guy (like Bundy) has got more leverage...I don't think it's a great comp (comparing Bauer and Bundy), even though they were picked back to back...I am sure the Orioles would love to tell Dylan Bundy's representation, 'Hey, Bauer got $4.45 (million) guaranteed, so Dylan has to come in under that.' But I don't think the Orioles would try to make that argument and I think B.B.I. Sports Group (Bundy's representatives) would laugh at them if they did...MLB likes to act like these deals impact everybody else and they really don't. As agents tell me, this isn't arbitration like the comps there; it doesn't work that way."

In reality, these bonuses are generally not very difficult to figure out. As someone with some experience in the process, I have found that generally history wins out and history tells us 1) bonuses for a player type are unlikely to improve be more than 40-50%, and only by that much in the rarest of circumstances, and 2) Andy MacPhail and the Orioles are unlikely to negotiate a record breaking deal.

Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg were back-to-back "generational" players who received total packages topping anything previously handed out. Those record breaking deals topped their closest comp (for Strasburg, college arm David Price; for Harper, high school position player Donavan Tate) by around 50%. Using that as a general guide, we set Bundy's "max" deal at around $10 million, or right around 50% more that high school arms Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello received. In reality, Bundy is not a "generational" talent -- that is, he doesn't stand easily above his contemporaries, as far as scouting profiles are concerned. Accordingly, we put his expected bonus close to either what Porcello earned: around $3.5 million guaranteed and a Major League deal worth upwards of $7 million, or what Jameson Taillon earned as the top high school arm in last year's draft: $6.5 million in bonus money and a Minor League deal.

Inflation might bring those numbers up some -- let's bump the window to $7.0 to 8.0 million. Baltimore's sensitivity to slot suggestions, or more accurately not outdistancing early slot projections by to wide a margin, could cause this number to fall some. Additionally, the Orioles have proven to be shrewd negotiators willing to draw a line in the sand when they have determined that a player is incentivized to sign and they have made what they consider to be a fair offer.

Historically, the largest Major League deal Baltimore has given to a high school pitcher is Adam Loewen's 2002 Major League deal that included about $3.5 million in bonus and another $800 thousand in guaranteed salary. Baltimore's most recent 1st Round high school arm Matt Hobgood received $2.4 million and a Minor League deal as the fifth overall selection in 2009. It's safe to say that any Major League deal signed by Bundy will eclipse $800 thousand in salary given to Loewen and likely that the bonus will improve -- if only nominally -- over the $3.5 million offered to Loewen.

While Bundy has leverage as high schooler with the option of going to college and re-entering the draft, that leverage is limited due to: 1) the risk associated with playing as an amateur for three more seasons before being able to declare again (he is a Texas commit and four-year college players must wait until their junior year, or the year in which they are 21 within 45 days of the draft), 2) the uncertainty as to how the new Collective Bargaining Agreement might change the draft landscape (including instituting slot bonuses for 1st Rounders), and 3) the fact that he has very little room to improve as a top 5 talent in 2011.

Risk 1 can be avoided by retracting his commitment to Texas and enrolling in a junior college, as junior college players are eligible for the draft each year, regardless of age or standing. Risk 2 has not come into play with the negotiated deals to which I have been privy this summer, though the risk is much larger for a top 5 pick looking at seven figures than it is to a 3rd or 4th Rounder receiving mid-six figures and about 5% over slot recommendation. The final risk is the largest, and ultimately negates any perceived leverage Bundy has.

While it's true that Bundy could go to a junior college and re-enter next year as a favorite to go 1st overall, that choice carries with it risk of injury, change in draft slot structure and the risk of under-performance. The latter is the hardest to drum home to players and their families, as most top talents have difficulty envisioning struggling.

So where do we end up? The lower threshold for bonus/ML deal package is probably around $6.5 million -- what Jameson Taillon received as the top pick last year. The upper threshold is probably around $8 million -- about a 14% improvement on the total ML package received by Porcello. When discussing this signing with two National League evaluators, the consensus was that Bundy would receive a ML deal due to his advanced profile, with a bonus likely in the $3.5-4 million range and salary structure bringing the total haul to $7 million. Whether Baltimore keeps the number slightly under that or Bundy pushes the number upwards of $8 million will depend on a myriad of factors, the most important of which is probably as simple as who blinks first on the eve of August 15th.

2011 Trade Deadline: Koji Uehara, reality vs. possibility (Part 2)

In Part 1 of our look at the Koji Uehara deal, we broke down Baltimore's haul (Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis). In Part 2, we will take a closer look at each of our suggested deals for Uehara, provide some more indepth analysis of the players we were targeting and finally compare our hauls with Baltimore's actual get.

The possibilities...
Detroit Tigers
Our suggested packages:

1. Chance Ruffin (rhp, Tigers - ML) and Drew Smyly (lhp, Lakeland - AA)


2. Andy Oliver (lhp, Toledo - AAA) and Drew Smyly

Whether you prefer option 1 or option 2 depends on whether you prefer a good relief arm that could be stretched out to start, or a potential solid starter that could be good in relief. I lean to to the Chance Ruffin package, as it gives you a "now" bullpen arm that can step into the 6th/7th inning and push everyone else back an inning. Eventually I expect Ruffin to be a late-inning guy if he stays in the pen. There is a chance he grows into a mid-rotation arm if stretched out.

Scouting Summarys (Ruffin and Smyly):
Ruffin is a slightly undersized righty that showed four pitches as both a starter and a closer at the University of Texas. He has pitched exclusively in relief for the Tigers, logging just 45 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before being promoted last week. You can find some of my scouting video on Ruffin here.

At UT, Ruffin generally sat 90-92 mph with his fastball and has bumped that to 91-94 mph this summer. There is some armside life and he has shown an ability to spot it to both sides of the plate. His slider is a wipeout offering at its best, coming with tilt and late bite (generally low-80s velo). Though he hasn't shown them often as a pro, Ruffin also has an 11-to-5 curve and a change-up in his repertoire. The curve doesn't have great depth, but when he snaps a good one its tight and can change the eye-level of the hitter. His change is undeveloped, and stands as the biggest hurdle to converting to a starter.

His armslot is true three-quarters, and the arm action is fairly clean. He'll flash the ball to hitters on the backside, but the ill effects are minimal since his slider and fastball grip are not easily discernable. If he were to fold a change-up in the mix more often, he may need to address this.

Ruffin is a potential late-inning arm with closer stuff if he can continue to grow his fastball and slider command. Even if he does not make the conversion to starter, it would be nice to see him drop his curveball from time to time, as it could be another putaway pitch and at minimum would give him a true change-of-pace offering.

Smyly was a 2nd Round selection in the 2010 draft and has spent the bulk of 2011 in Lakeland (A+), where he averaged 8.6 SO/9 and 3.67 SO/BB. He has made one start at Double-A Erie, tossing seven shutout innings while striking out eight and allowing just six baserunners (four via hit, two via walk).

Long and lean, Smyly's strength is his ability to change speeds and create tough angles with his long limbs. His fastball vacillates between 87 and 92, sitting most comfortably 89-91 mph with solid bore. His curve works well out of a high slot and is an above-average to plus pitch when he's hitting his release. Smyly has made strides with his change-up, which was fringy at best at Alabama and likely tops out as an average offering when all is said and done.

Smyly's high arm slot and long arms helps to produce excellent plane on each of his offerings, and makes him very difficult to square-up. His landing could be softened some, particularly on his curve which he has a tendency not to finish. He'll come across his body some, as well, but all in all there is a lot to like about his easy motion and release.

Smyly could be a mid-rotation arm with continued improvement in his secondaries. His easy motion has allowed him to locate well -- even with inconsistent off-speed stuff -- and he offers enough physical projection that you could dream on another uptick in velo, as well.

Conclusion:
Ruffin - Potential late inning arm, Major League ready, could handle late-inning work by 2012.
Smyly - Potential mid-rotation starter, Double-A in 2012, could be ML ready by late 2012/early 2013.


Texas Rangers
Our suggested packages:

1. Robbie Erlin (lhp, Frisco - AA; Note: traded to San Diego, now San Antonio - AA)


2. Mike Olt (3b, Myrtle Beach - A+)


3. Jordan Akins (of, Rangers - Rookie) and Justin Grimm (rhp, Myrtle Beach - A+)

I ranked Mike Olt as a 3rd Round talent last spring, and the Rangers nabbed him in the Supplemental-1st Round, ultimately singing him for an affordable $715,000. In his first taste of pro ball he has improved his contact rate and his defense, while continuing to show good power. Still, at 22 years old in HiA, I have enough concerns about his probability to prefer the safety of option 1 or the disbursed risk of option 3. While option 3 may ultimately provide the highest upside, it probably makes more sense to focus on talent closer to contributing with the current "core" in place at Baltimore. That leaves Robbie Erlin as our suggested package with the Rangers.

Scouting Summarys (Erlin):
Robbie Erlin split his 2011 summer in the Rangers system between Myrtle Beach (A+) and Frisco (AA), before being moved to the Padres system as part of the Mike Adams trade. Erlin is undersized for a starter, listed at just 6-foot, 175-pounds, but possesses the arsenal and command to eventually land him in the middle of a Major League rotation. He has consistently hit a BB/9 rate around 1.0 as he's progressed through the Minors, while posting a career SO/9 rate over 9.0 through 246 innings (never dipping below 8.7 at any level).

His arsenal is lead by an upper-80s to low-90s fastball that tops around 92 mph -- an average offering that plays up because of Erlin's surgical placement. His secondaries consist of an upper-70s hard 1-to-7 breaker that flashes plus and is consistently and average or better offering, and a mid-70s change with fade and late drop. Both his breaking ball and change-up could be true plus offerings when all is said and done, and at minimum the diminutive lefty should boast three average or better weapons with easy plus to plus-plus command.

Erlin's mechanics are minimalist and clean, with excellent pacing, a short arm circle and consistent timing and release. He throws out of a high-three-quarters slot, giving his pitches some angle in spire of his size. With one of the prettiest motions you will find, there is little doubt that Erlin will continue to place pitches to the quadrants, which will help him make the necessary adjustments at Triple-A and eventually with the big club in San Diego.

Though he won't light up radar guns, Erlin is a strike thrower with two potential plus offerings in his curve and change-up, who shows elite command of all of his offerings and an advanced approach to pitching. He works with a purpose on the mound and will be providing valuable innings at the Major League level sooner rather than later. He tops out as a #3, but is a good bet to get there.

Conclusion:
Erlin - Potential mid-rotation starter, Triple-A in 2012, could be ML ready by early 2012.

Philadelphia Phillies
Our suggested packages:

1. Jonathan Singleton (1b, Lakeland - A+; Note: traded to Houston, now Lancaster - A+)


2. Brody Colvin (rhp, Lakeland - A+)

Jonathan Singleton was included in the Hunter Pence deal, along with fellow Lakeland prospect and Futures Game participant Jarred Cosart and Josh Zeid (Reading - AA), and thus is highly unlikely to have been available to land a relief arm. Similarly, it seems unlikely Philly would unload Brody Colvin after already moving one third of the Lakeland Trio (Cosart, Colvin and Trevor May). Accordingly, we aren't going to dig into the details on Singleton or Colvin...yet. Check in tomorrow, as we'll be writing up two larger deals potentially available to Baltimore -- one of which could have netted Colvin, Singelton and more.

Conclusion:
Neither suggested package likely available for Uehara.


Pittsburgh Pirates
Our suggested packages:

1. Zach Von Rosenberg (rhp, West Virginia - A)


2. Starling Marte (of, Altoona - AA) and Brooks Pounders (rhp, West Virginia - A)


3. Starling Marte and Jeff Locke (rhp, Altoona - AA)

None of the players listed above ended-up moved this past weekend. Further, Pittsburgh's acquisition of Derrek Lee (see yesterday's Cup of jO's) and Ryan Ludwick in exchange for organizational filler indicates that while the Bucs are still taking 2011 seriously, they aren't going to sacrifice any significant future pieces for a one year push. That leaves us dubious that any of the above would seriously be shopped for a relief arm. There were rumors that the Pirates were in on some of the big arms floating around, but we are comfortable striking them from consideration given what actually transpired at the deadline.

Conclusion:
Unlikely to move suggested players for Uehara.


Settling on our deal...
After narrowing our search and providing details on our targets, we are left with two potential packages for Uehara:

1. Uehara to the Tigers for Chance Ruffin and Drew Smyly


2. Uehara to the Rangers for Robbie Erlin

Saying this, we of course note that there is no guarantee that the Tigers or the Rangers would have agreed to these terms. It is our best estimation based on our own player evaluation, our analysis of what transpired at the deadline, and our analysis of the needs of all teams involved.

Erlin was moved to San Diego along with fellow Double-A arm Joe Wieland in exchange for relief pitching. Wieland's growth in 2011 puts him closer to Erlin in "value" now than he was at the beginning of the season, and it is not a stretch to think that had Baltimore pushed for Erlin they could have received him.

All signs indicate that Ruffin is to be the "player to be named later" in the deal that brought Doug Fister and David Pauley over from Seattle. With Francisco Martinez anchoring that trade from the Detroit side, it's certainly possible that the Tigers could have found another player -- perhaps Andy Oliver -- to include in the Seattle package. Further, the Tigers would have had no need for Pauley with Koji in pocket, so perhaps no player would have been needed to sub into that deal at all.

The benefit of the Detroit deal is two-fold: 1) you get back two pieces, each of which could be above-average Major Leaguers, and 2) you get a ready replacement for Uehara in the pen. The benefit of the Texas deal is the high-probability that Erlin will find success, given his command and approach. With the Orioles's influx of young arms in place and recently stumbling at the Major League level, and with many of them struggling in particular with command, the thought of adding a 1 BB/9 arm to the mix at some point next year is too good to pass on. Both packages are good value for Koji, but if we make the call we go with Erlin.

Camden Depot suggested trade:
Koji Uehara (rhp, ML) to Texas Rangers
Robbie Erlin (rhp, AA) to Baltimore Orioles

It's a toss-up whether we like Erlin more, less, or about the same as the Tommy Hunter/Chris Davis package actually received. There is big upside in Davis's bat and Hunter has already shown success as a starter and reliever in the pitcher-friendly Ballpark in Arlington. It will be interesting to compare these three over the next four years and revisit this post once everything shakes out.

Next up:
Did Baltimore miss the boat on a potential blockbuster? Another two part series exploring a few deals larger in structure and centered on two different O's.

Cup of jO's (August 3, 2011): Britt answers on Pie's antics

Game Summary
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Alfredo Simon shut down the Royals over seven innings, walking just one run on four hits and a walk. Tommy Hunter, acquired in the Koji Uehara deal, made his first appearance with the club, allowing two singles and a run. Chris Davis hit his first homerun as an Oriole, allowing an Everrett Teaford fastball to travel deep on the outer half before muscling it out to the opposite field. It was a good night all around for the Birds, who take a step towards winning their first AL series since the first week of June. Jeremy Guthrie takes the mound tonight opposite former 1st Rounder Luke Hochevar; you can check out the STATS LLC game preview here.

Of interest....
Last week Jon touched on Felix Pie's peculiar habit of chasing down batting helmets tossed during walk off celebrations. Britt Ghiroli of MLB.com asked Felix about this ritual and reported her findings at Britt's Bird Watch:

“It’s a touchdown,” Pie said of grabbing the helmet in celebratory glee. “It’s like we scored a touchdown.”

Makes perfect sense to me. Hopefully we'll get a chance to see a few more touchdown celebrations in 2011. When we do, make sure to keep your eye on #18.

Cup of jO's (August 1, 2011): Derrek Lee dump

Game Summary
Orioles 2, Yankees 4
Box Score / Play-by-Play / AP Recap

Baltimore dropped the final game of the series to the Bombers and finish the AL East portion of their road trip with a 2-5 record against Toronto and New York. The Birds round out July without winning a single series and have now gone almost two months since winning a series against an AL opponent. They were outscored 33-10 in the Bronx.

Next up is Kansas City -- Alfredo Simon will toe the rubber opposite former Oriole Bruce Chen on Tuesday night in the opening game of a three-game set.

Of interest...
In addition to trading stopper Koji Uehara this past weekend, Derrek Lee was moved to Pittsburgh in exchange for first baseman Aaron Baker, a 23-year old org bat who has spent 2011 in the A-Advanced Florida State League. Baker has a tick above-average raw pop and a thick frame portending impressive batting practice displays. His bat speed is merely "okay", and it's unlikely he amounts to more than an organizational piece capable of playing a solid first base and providing average production until he runs into advanced arms.

While the return is nominal, no one really expected a haul for the veteran Lee, who has struggled through a disappointing 2011 posting a triple-slash line of .246/.302/.404 over 364 plate appearances. At the same time, Orioles fans have much to celebrate with this transaction. With a tip of the hat to Mr. Lee for serving his sentence in Charm City, and best wishes as he departs for a NL Central pennant race as the second newest member of the Bucs (Pittsburgh subsequently acquired Ryan Ludwick from the Padres), Baltimoreans can take away two big positives from the former All-Star's departure.

First and foremost, this signals that Andy MacPhail and the brain trust coordinating the personnel decisions appear to truly be dedicated to giving Chris Davis every chance to get comfortable and show what he has as a starting first baseman. This was a large concern following the Uehara deal, as noted in Part 1 of our Koji trade analysis, and it is terrific news that the organization is going to make at least a two month commitment to figuring out whether or not Davis looks like a future contributor.

Secondly, Baltimore should be saving a little over one million dollars once cash considerations on the Lee deal are taken into account. Hopefully we will see that saved money funneled into draft signings. It would be a nice chunk of change to tack on to the offer to Georgia commit Nicky Delmonico (3b, Farragut HS, Knoxville, Tenn.) or enough to sign TCU outfielder Jason Coats outright (with some jingle left over). Of course, it's possible that the freed-up cash is required to meet 1st Rounder Dylan Bundy's immense asking price, but with plenty of other troubles in Birdland we prefer to remain positive. Here's to looking back on August 16th and fondly remembering when Mr. MacPhail was able to move Derrek Lee for an org bat and an overslot signing or two.

Note: We will not be running a "possibilities" piece on the Lee deal. Baltimore achieved a solid salary dump -- little more needs to fleshed out here. We will discuss Koji a bit more today (promise) and will also share some thoughts on what, if any, other moves would have been nice to see prior to yesterday's 4pm Eastern trade deadline.

2011 Trade Deadline: Koji Uehara, reality vs. possibility (Part 1)

In our last discussion of Koji Uehara we laid out some potential suitors and target packages we would expect attainable in exchange for one of the top relievers this summer. Between then and now, Koji was shipped off to the Texas Rangers for two reasonably young players ready to step in at the Major League level -- Chris Davis (cof/cif) and Tommy Hunter (rhp). Below we'll examine this return. This afternoon we will finish with our analysis as to what we would have liked to have seen done, as relates to Uehara.

Reality: Koji for Davis and Hunter
The trade package that Andy MacPhail landed ends up a very solid return from a value standpoint. Baltimore sold high on a mid-30s relief arm with one more year of control ready to vest ($4 million) and obtained two mid-20s talents with no need for any more time in the Minors. My assumption is that the deal was structured around Uehara for Hunter, with Baltimore pushing for Davis's inclusion and Texas agreeing in exchange for the O's picking-up $2 million of Koji's 2012 salary. The $2 million is not insignificant in this context, but even as a fringe-average ML bat Davis will be worth more than that over his next four seasons under control.

Chris Davis (corner infield/corner outfield)
Most prospect enthusiasts are well aware that Davis's calling card is his elite raw power, which grades as a 75/80 on the scouting scale. The issue comes in trying to get that raw power to manifest in Major League game action, as he's long to contact with a max effort swing. This forces Davis to commit early to pitches and has lead to far too many empty swings chasing off-speed pitches at the Big League level. If Davis can make some adjustments and shorten his swing, he should see a decrease in strikeouts, which in turn should give him extra contact opportunities to get his power involved. There is Mark Reynolds upside, but it is going to take just short of an overhaul in approach and swing. As a secondary piece to the deal, this is a fine risk, but the odds are against Davis until he proves he has the ability to start making adjustments.

Defensively, Davis has soft hands at first base, and enough athleticism to fill in at a corner outfield spot or even at third. While his athleticism gives him enough flexibility to move around some, his best fit is at the three spot, and it seems unlikely he tops out at more than a fringe average defender in the other three corners.

Tommy Hunter (rhp)
Hunter is an established back-end starter with five more years of control before he can leave via free agency. Not a bad start, eh? In fact, that alone is certain "enough" return on Koji to make this a smart deal. Hunter is a big, durable body with an easy arm and uncomplicated motion. His fastball lives in the 89-92 range, but can bump as high as 96 mph when he's reaching back for it. He'll drop an upper-70s breaker for a different look, he commands the solid average pitch well enough. His change-up is also a legit average Major League offering, and when he turns it over he gets some fade.

While Hunter boasts a true average arsenal and commands each of his three offerings, his ceiling is limited due to his lack of a true out pitch and a corresponding inability to miss bats. Baltimore is hoping for a durable innings-eater that consistently will get them 6 or 7 innings a start. With continued growth we could see Hunter put together a season or two of legit #3 production, placing him on par with the likes of Jake Arrieta from a "value" standpoint. All-in-all a nice arm to have under control for the next four seasons, and someone that will hopefully provide some stability at the #4 spot while Baltimore waits for Matusz, Britton and perhaps Tillman and Arrieta to take a step forward.

Final thoughts
It is impossible to look at the deal and consider it a loss for the O's. In return for a relief arm with no real role in the club's future, Baltimore landed two 25 year olds -- one with a bit of upside and not a lot of probability, and the other likely to be a solid contributor but not much more than that. Further, adding $2 million to the deal is a no brainer if it gets you back Davis. It is another strong value package landed by MacPhail and another feather in his "good trade" hat.

The biggest challenge for Baltimore is going to be not falling into bad habits moving forward. While the return for the deal is solid, much of it is negated if Baltimore turns around and commits another $5-7 million per year on a two or three year deal for more relief pitching this off-season. Further, the Orioles can't approach developing Davis the same way that they have Nolan Reimold. Davis needs to play and the Orioles need to see what they have in the once promising slugger. Considering the monster year Davis has had at Triple-A Round Rock, it would behoove Buck Showalter to slide Davis right into the recently vacated hole at first base (discussion of the Derreck Lee trade to follow) and see where things stand come October.

Our preferred return for Koji would have been a more forward thinking package, sacrificing some proximity to the Majors for additional upside. One of Davis or Hunter and one higher upside talent, further away, would have been a boon. The same, this is hardly a package to be disappointed in. Hopefully the pro scouts pushing for Davis have identified what they would like fixed, and the Orioles end-up with two two 30-35 homerun run bats at the infield corners in 2012.

In a bit we'll post our suggested trade packages for Koji and provide some more info on the players we were hoping to see come back to the Birds.

Cup of jO's: Felix Pie's Celebration Technique

We do have some trade deadline perspective to share, but first . . . I noticed from an Orioles' message board that Felix Pie celebrates home runs in a strange way.

Click on the image and watch the helmet.

 My guess is that is Pie lost a bet at some point this season and has to chase down helmets.

Anyone have a better guess?