2011 Trade Deadline: Koji Uehara

In the off season before the 2009 season, two older Japanese pitchers hit the market.  Both Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara were seen as older (for both 2009 would be their age 34 season) pitchers who were elite talents in Japan, but could have issues in MLB.  The Orioles were in on both pitchers as they needed starting pitching.  They balked at Kenshin's asking price which was rumored to be for a 3 year, 30 MM contract (he wound up signing with the Braves for 3 years and 23 MM) and decided to give Koji a shot with a two year deal at five million per season.  Koji had the more impressive career, but of late his value had been depressed by solely relieving and getting hurt.  Starting turned out to be too much for Koji, but he has settled into a relief role nicely and has been much more accomplished than Kenshin who is now in the minors.

Koji, currently in the first year of an almost assured two year deal and being paid 4 MM each season, is the Orioles' best trading chip in the bullpen.  At 4MM, he is not cheap, but the cost is not exorbitant.  Second, Koji has an ERA under two with a 55/8 split over 44 innings.  Third, he does have closer experience and probably should have been closing for the Orioles this season.  Fourth, if free agent compensation exists in 2012, he will likely earn it as he currently projects as the most valuable relief pitcher in the AL according to the Elias rating projection.  

Case to Keep
The Orioles' bullpen is rather thin.  Kevin Gregg is an average pitcher who gets saves.  He just is not someone you should trust in a save situation.  Jim Johnson, supposedly, is being made into a starting pitcher.  After that, you have nothing of note.  Koji is relatively cheap for a "proven" reliever, signed for another year, and will likely be just as valuable next year if not more so.  He is certainly always a risk to be injured, but if the tradeoff is a marginal B level prospect now vs a marginal B level prospect next year or free agent compensation . . . it makes some sense to delay a deal until the next trade deadline.  Added to this, there sure are a lot of right handed relievers on the market right now.  You will need a team that has blinders on and focus solely on Koji or the team is going to take in something of little value.

Case to Trade
What does one of the worst teams in baseball need with an elite setup man?  Koji currently is that and he is not making the Orioles an exceptionally better team.  Added to this, he has faced a significant injury in each of the past two years, but has been healthy this season.  Mind you that during his entire tenure with the Orioles, he has been an excellent pitcher.  He has a track record and other teams have to recognize that.  With the availability of several right handed relievers, the Orioles may not get a great deal for Koji . . . but I do not think we would see something too far off from what the team received for George Sherrill a couple years ago.  My guess is a low B level prospect and a somewhat low ceiling C level prospect.  Sherrill netted the team a high B level prospect and a low ceiling C level prospect.

Possible Trade Partners and Targets
The following teams were chosen because they are within five games of the playoffs and have received bottom third production from their bullpen.

AL

Detroit Tigers
The Tigers' pitching is a bit of a mess.  They are basically Verlander, Valverde, Albequerque, and Furbush.  Nothing else.  They have been rumored to be heavy into any available starting pitcher, but could also use more depth in the bullpen.  My guess is that you could receive Chance Ruffin who would be the low B pitcher.  He is an advanced relief arm that should replace Koji in the pen next year.  He is unlikely to be as good as Koji, but the team would have six cost controlled years.  The Tigers' system is full of C level guys, so you could simply take your pick.  Adam Wilk might be reasonable.

Texas Rangers
The bullpen consists of a strong closer (Neftali Feliz), a strong left handed setup man (Darren Oliver), and average quality depth.  The team lacks that shutdown 7th or 8th inning guy that Koji could be for them.  I think the Rangers are also smart enough to understand that Koji's performance is relatively cheap, you get a second year, and he is likely to give free agent compensation in return.  I think with big eyes you ask for Tanner Scheppers or Mike Olt.  Scheppers will be a strong arm coming out of the pen and Olt is a fine hitter who should be ready when Mark Reynolds departs.  Both of those will be hard gets.  I imagine Scheppers would be easier to pry.  Falling back on those, you could target a softer target such as Chris Davis or Andrew Clark.  Davis is a masher who kills AAA pitching and also kills MLB pitching if he is able to hit it.  Andrew Clark was a late round pick who is old for his leagues, but is showing good power and discipline.  Clark should be someone the Rangers would be fine being without and may have more usefulness to the Orioles than Davis.

NL
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies need some more depth in that pen from the right side and Koji would be a solid fit for them.  The team is often thought of as being in it to win it at all times, but Koji's 4MM price tag might be too much.  For him to go there, the team would have to pony up the rest of this year's tab.  That would be for a shade over a million.  In return, they could ask for 1B Jonathan Singleton who is suffering some growing pains in HiA ball this year.  They could also ask for Jared Cosart who is a pitcher with high potential, but some questions as to his long term viability as a starter.  As arms go though, someone like Julio Rodriguez might be more realistic.

Conclusion
The only way I deal Koji is if the team pulls back someone like Jonathan Singleton, Jared Cosart, or Mike Olt.  I would need a high ceiling low minors prospect.  Trading Koji away for depth makes no sense to me.  He fulfills a role in the pen and the team could wait until the situation improves to spin him off to someone who values him more.  The worst case scenario is that Koji turns into a prospect or two through whatever the revised free agent compensation system winds up being. 

The Trades of Buck Showalter (Part I): Arizona

There has been some rumblings that maybe Buck Showalter may be the Orioles General Manager next year.  I thought in light of that, it might be good to look at trades he made during his tenure with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers.  At these two locations it has been said that he personally carried a lot of weight when dealing players and also in free agency.  In Arizona, he was key also in stadium and uniform design.  He supposedly got around.  However, I just want to look at trades.  My first run through of this is quite generic.  I am merely comparing the career rWAR of each player from the moment of the trade until the end of said player's career.

Arizona Diamondbacks
1997
Mark Davis (-0.1 rWAR) to the Milwaukee Brewers for essentially nothing +0.1
Scott Winchester (-1.1) for Felix Rodriguez (6.2) +7.3
Matt Drews (minors), Gabe Alvarez (-0.8), and Joe Randa (16.8) for Travis Fryman (7.8) -8.2
Jesus Martinez (minors) for Devon White (5.3) +5.3
Chuck McElroy (2.0) for Harvey Pulliam (0) -2.0
Travis Fryman (7.8) and Tom Martin (-1.6) for Matt Williams (6.6) +0.4
Total = +2.9 rWAR

1998
Mike Bell (0.2) for Joe Lisio (minors) -0.2
Todd Erdos (-0.5) and Marty Janzen (0) for Andy Fox (-1.1) -0.6
Chris Jones (-0.6) for Ricky Pickett (-0.3) +0.3
Joe Lisio (minors) and Scott Brow (0) for Willie Banks (0.6) +0.6
Russ Springer (2.8) for Alan Embree (1.9) -0.9
Reid Cornelius (0.8) for Walt White (minors)
Willie Blair (-0.9) and Jorge Fabregas (-2.6) for Nelson Figueroa (1.4) and Bernard Gilkey (-1.0) +1.1
Hensley Muelens (0) for nothing 0
Jeff Suppan (15.0) for money -15.0
Alan Embree (1.8) for Dante Powell (-0.4) -2.2
Bob Wolcott (-0.2) for Bart Miadich (-0.1) +0.1
Felix Rodriguez (7.1) for Chris Van Rossum (minors) and Troy Brohan (0.0)
Karim Garcia (-0.8) for Luis Gonzalez (25.3) +26.1
Total = +9.3 WAR

1999
Paul Weichard (minors) and Jason Boyd (-1.8) for Tony Womack (2.1) +3.9
Ben Ford (-0.6) and Izzy Molina (0.0) for Darren Holmes (0.8) +1.4
Clint Sandowsky (-0.6) for John Frascatore (1.0) +1.6
Neil Weber (0) for Blake Mayo (minors) 0
Ron Calloway (-1.9) for John Pachot (minors) +1.9
Tony Batista (9.5) and John Frascatore (0.8) for Dan Plesac (2.2) -8.1
Abraham Nunez (-0.4), Vladimir Nunez (-1.1), and Brad Penny (21.4) for Matt Mantei (2.4) -17.5
Belvani Martinez (minors) for Lenny Harris (-0.8) -0.8
Dante Powell (0.1) for Luis Ordaz (-2.1) -2.2
Total = -19.8 WAR

2000
Josh McAfee (minors) for Brian Dallimore (0.4) +0.4
Lenny Harris (0) for Bill Pullsipher (-1.0) -1.0
Andy Fox (-0.4) for Danny Bautista (0.2) +0.6
Omar Daal (1.5), Nelson Figueroa (1.5), Travis Lee (4.4), and Vincente Padilla (9.4) for Curt Schilling (35.4) +18.6
Total = +18.6

In Summary
1997 - 2000
2.9 + 9.3 - 19.8 + 18.6 = 11.0 rWAR

In 2011 dollars, that rWAR is worth about 48 MM.  It probably translates to an extra win per year, which is not bad.  It certainly would fall within the realm of average to me, but we really do not have a population to compare this number with.  My next effort will be to evaluate his Rangers years.  Finally, I will use a different way to measure these trades by weighting the performance by year.

The Science of Baseball: July 17, 2011

After weeks of various activities (e.g. moving, wandering in Texas) we are back in order with another edition of the Science of Baseball.  This week we will consider the effect of beetroot juice on performance, the effect of nicotine on performance, and then finally whether or not a modified game of baseball can help blind people with their balance.  So...quite a mix today.

Acute dietary nitrate supplementation improves cycling time trial performance.
K Lansley et al
Medicine and Science in Sport and Exercise 2011 43:1125-1131

A recent study by Andrew Jones' Exeter group found when cycling subjects are given beetroot juice with or without nitrates that it significantly affected finishing times.  On 2.5 and 10 mile distances, total time decreased by three percent when half a liter of beetroot juice still containing nitrates was consumed just prior to the beginning of the time trial.  Nitrates are known to affect blood flow in two ways: (1) nitrate can widen blood vessels which allows for a greater volume of blood to flow and (2) it is known to permit muscles to work more efficiently with respect to oxygen consumption.  Baseball to many extents is nothing like cycling, but I think we may be able to draw two different applications to baseball.  Beetroot juice may be useful to deal with season-long stamina issues and it might also be useful to starting pitchers.  That said, this information still requires quite a bit of testing, so do not expect beetroot juice to rapidly alter overall performance ability.

Keep this in mind though...there is now more evidence pointing to beetroot juice not only being an effective performance enhancing supplement than hGH, but also the end effect is greater than anything produced for hGH.  Think about that really hard.  Beetroot Juice.

Prompt but inefficient: nicotine differentially modulates discrete components of attention.
S. Vangkilde et al.
Psychopharmacology In Press

This study decided to put more focus on how nicotine affects information processing.  There have been several conflicting studies over to what extent nicotine improves or inhibits recognition and motor skills.  This study utilized 24 non-smokers who were dosed with nicotine by chewing nicotine gum.  They were then put through a regime of recognition and selection cognitive tests.  What they found was that reaction time did decrease when individuals were dosed with nicotine.  However, their ability to properly focus and select what was most important was inhibited.

What does this all mean?  Nicotine is probably not very helpful.

Can baseball improve balance in blind subjects?
Marini et al.
Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness 51:227-232

Blind baseball is an interesting sport.  Both sighted and non-sighted people play this game with sighted players donning blind folds.  There are only two bases (first and third) and reaching base before a player gets to the ball (which beeps) then you score a run.  You can learn more here about the sport.  In this study, researchers looked at the ability of blind baseball to be a therapy tool for blind individuals.  They took a group of non-baseball players and split them into two groups: one that would play baseball and one that would continue doing what they normally did.  The study found that participants in blind baseball actually improved their balancing ability.  What I wonder is whether blind baseball would help sighted baseball players.  Sight is probably more useful in baseball than the sound as you can see things before you hear them, but there is likely to be a benefit to perceiving sound.  It might not be a balance issue for sighted individuals.  I don't know.  Things to think about.

Life After Andy MacPhail: Options Within the Organization

Andy MacPhail is in the last year of his contract.  Peter Angelos has mentioned that there will be no negotiations until the season is over.  This has led many to believe that one or the other is looking for more flexibility when it comes time to determine how Andy relates to this team in the future.  The two scenarios I have heard mentioned most often would have Andy MacPhail graduating to more of a directional presence at the top of the organization.  This would be similar to his capacity with the Cubs and somewhat similar to Nolan Ryan's role with the Rangers.  MacPhail would be involved in major issues and with the direction of the club, but would leave day to day operations to someone else.  Eventually, MacPhail would move over to a role with Major League Baseball and have Cal Ripken Jr. take over.  The second scenario is for MacPhail to immediately take a role with Major League Baseball and a new presence takes over in the same capacity MacPhail currently serves.

There are several candidates to take the reins of the day to day operations.  There are internal options, experienced external options, and inexperienced external options.  In a series of three posts, I will review some of those potential options.  This first post will consider internal options.

Matt Klentak
30 years old
Director of Baseball Operations

Matt graduated from Dartmouth in 2002.  While in school he managed an internship with Major League Baseball.  That spun into another internship with the Rockies focused on organizing scouting materials and financial issues.  That became a full time position with Major League Baseball.  In his four years with Major League Baseball's Labor Relations Department he advised on all teams on the Collective Bargaining Agreement.  Klentak was also part of the Salary Arbitration Support Program and the Rule 4 Draft Support Program, providing economic and baseball analyses.  In his current capacity, Klentak is the director of baseball operations for the Orioles and is heavily involved in contract negotiations and how to work the 40 man and active rosters.  He certainly is a rising star in baseball and appears well regarded within the Organization.

I'm not sure if he will be a good or bad selection as a GM.  He seems to be a favorite of Andy MacPhail and that might mean something to Angelos.  The only time I have heard him speak extensively about baseball was on the organization pulling in a consultant to evaluate the cost of International talent.  The study is proprietary information, so I cannot say anything about it as he did not discuss it other than the outcome.  As such, I doubt the methodology.  That said, he might be good.

Joe Jordan
48 years old
Director of Amateur Scouting

Jordan started out with the Giants in the minors as a catcher in 1985.  When an injury ended his career, he returned to college to finish his degree and to serve as an assistant coach, a position he held for three years.  He then entered into the financial world before returning back to baseball in 1997 as a scout for the Montreal Expos.  He climbed up to the role of National Crosschecker with the Florida Marlins before he joined the Orioles in 2004 as their Scouting Director in the Flanagan GM era.  His time with the Orioles has been bittersweet.  He has managed to receive decent value for his draft picks and is highly regarded in the industry.  There may be some rivalry between his group and the developmental staff, so he may not be an easy choice.  Additionally, his selections have largely not been slam dunk talent grabs.  The 2009 draft might be a black eye from which Jordan will be remembered within the organization.  I doubt he will be considered for a promotion and think he will remain with the club only if a MacPhail disciple, like Klentak, takes over.

John Stockstill
Upper 40s (cannot find his birth date)
Director of Player Development

I have had difficulty researching Stockstill's early baseball background.  His main responsibilities began with MacPhail's Cubs orginally as a scouting coordinator for Minor League Operations within their organization.  After two years, he became the Cubs' scouting director.  He served in this capacity from 1999 to 2005.  These drafts were not particularly good ones for Stockstill.

1999 - Nothing
2000 - Dontrelle Willis
2001 - Mark Prior, Ryan Theriot, Ricky Nolasco, and Geovany Soto
2002 - Rich Hill, Taylor Teagarden, and Randy Wells
2003 - Sean Marshall and Casey McGehee
2004 - Sam Fuld
2005 - Nothing

He then joined the Orioles as an Assistant GM with a focus on evaluation.  This grew into an International Scouting Director position.  Before 2010, he switched places with his brother David Stockstill and is not the Director of Player Development.  Stockstill certainly is experienced, but I am not exactly sold on his performance.  As a scouting director, he often would target safe college players early and then go for hard to sign players in later rounds.  He did not target the right safe college players and was to able to sign the right overslots.  As the international scouting director for the Orioles, it is difficult to judge him as few resources were used.  Now as the director of player development, he has not had enough time to show any proficiency.

Cal Ripken Jr.
50 years old
President and CEO of Ripken Baseball

Cal is the obvious fan favorite and he has certainly shown an interest in being involved to a great degree at the top of the organization.  There has been some discussion over what responsibilities he would ultimately have and apparently him and Peter Angelos discuss baseball and business often.  He is likely the easiest and riskiest signing of everyone the Orioles could consider.  Cal has never been involved in player development and acquisition.  He was a great player, but playing the game requires a different skill set than evaluating and acting on evaluations as well as working within current and future monetary limits.  There is certainly a possibility that Cal could become the Joe Morgan of General Managers.  Making matters worse, Cal carries such weight around Baltimore he just might be almost unfireable.  The short of it for me is that there are far too many risks for me to hire him on the slim chance he actually can do this job.

Buck Showalter
55 years old
Manager

Showalter is known primarily for taking uneven, young teams and crafting winners out of them.  He is also known for directly and indirectly forcing player acquisition.  He teamed up with the Arizona Diamondbacks two years before their first game to help shape their roster.  In Texas, Showalter was known for pushing Alex Rodriguez out of Arlington and for trading Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young for Adam Easton and Akinori Otsuka.  After Texas, Showalter acted to some capacity as a Senior Adviser to the Cleveland Indians before being snatched up by ESPN to be an analyst (a position he had prior to his Texas job).  To be kind, his efforts at moving players has been incredibly uneven if not horrible.  He does seem to have sway in the organization and is said to dine with Peter Angelos every week or two alone.  At the very least, I expect Showalter to be highly involved in the selection of the next General Manager.  It also would not surprise me if he pulls a Dick Cheney and recommends himself.

My Ranking of these Five?
1. Matt Klentak
2. Joe Jordan
3. Cal Ripken Jr.
4. Buck Showalter
5. John Stockstill

Of these five, I think Klentak might be the only one who might be good for the organization.  However, there is just a major lack of information on him.  Jordan has a good eye for talent and is fond of prospects, which might be good.  Cal is a wild card.  Buck has shown he makes poor decisions.  Stockstill has never been involved with any group that wound up being incredibly valuable  With all of his previous chances, I do not see the point of giving him further opportunities.

Next Up?
Five potential general managers outside of the organization who have experience.