Delay in Content

Sorry for the delay in content. Jon was pulled away on business and I am down in Durham, N.C. for USA Baseball scouting events, including the Prospect Classic (pitting the USA 18U squad against the Collegiate National Team). I'll post a quick recap of O's action the last two days later tonight, and this weekend we'll look at the start of the International Free Agent signing period (which is today, July 2nd).

Thanks for your patience!
Nick

Mark Reynolds needs to step down to be a 30/-30 player

After 74 games, Mark Reynolds has given us what we have expected.  He hits well . . . or, to be more specific, he makes enough solid contact and walks enough to make up for all the times he does not make contact.  He has also been incredibly rough at third base.  Both of these were expected and he is roughly the exact player we knew was coming here.  For the season, Reynolds is on pace to be 41 batting runs above replacement and -20 fielding run above average (from Baseball Reference).  If he ends up with those he will have had his second best offensive season and his worst defensive season.  There have been 5 players in the history of baseball who have had 41 BRAR or more and -20 FRAA or less. 

Dick Deitz 1970 42 batting runs -20 fielding runs
Joe Torre 1971 62 batting runs -25 fielding runs
Jeff Burroughs 1974 48 batting runs -21 fielding runs
Dale Murphy 1985 44 batting runs -21 fielding runs
Bernie Williams 2002 42 batting runs -22 fielding runs

If Reynolds is able to keep this up, he will be in select company.  Dietz was a strong hitter for a few seasons and likely would have been in the Majors longer if he had the benefit of a DH.  Torre is arguably a HoFer as a result of his playing days.  Burroughs had a somewhat uneven career with really only three solid offensive seasons.  Dale Murphy was a bat in search of a position and was likely going to be a sure fire HoFer until his knees quit on him.  Bernie Williams is a slightly better version of Dale Murphy.  Just as bad of a defender, but a tad better bat and a tad longer career.  Although he does have that Yankee glow while Murphy has that pre-Atlanta Dynasty patina.

A 40/-20 club may be a good way to measure a usable player (this is not position weighted though).  However, I think there is a certain special something to a 30/-30 club.  Mark Reynolds should easily get the offensive side of that equation.  He is in the midst of a career offensive year.  His defense is just not bad enough at this point.  He manages to get to a good number of balls, so that he saves a number of doubles by stabbing the ball even if it is followed by a poor throw.  This is especially true with the Orioles defense behind him in left.  Anyway, the 30/-30 club is quite small:

Ryan Braun 2007 33 batting runs -35 fielding runs
Jason Bay 2008 31 batting runs -35 fielding runs
Adam Dunn 2009 34 batting runs -33 fielding runs

Ryan Braun's 2007 season is quite remarkable in that he accomplished this while playing only 113 games.  If he had played his normal 155 games he would have had a 45/-48 season.  That would have been quite remarkable.  The Brewers feared those defensive numbers and shifted him to the outfield where he has shown more aptitude.  Jason Bay is not a good defensive outfielder, but his 2008 season may have been a bit of an abnormality.  It was somewhat of a surprise when the Mets signed him to play left field for them.  Even more of a surprise is that his defense has been passable while the bottom dropped out of his bat.  Some thought it had to do with his fly balls not finding enough room in the spacious confines of Citi Field.  However, he has been a much much better hitter at home than on the road.  Adam Dunn's defense was ignored for a season in Washington, shifted to first, and is now where he belongs as a DH for the White Sox.

Mark Reynolds may be a butcher at third, but his bat covers for him.  He may be worth more in left field or at first base.  Reynolds played a little bit of left in the minors and does not seem exceptionally bad out there.  His first base time in the Majors for Arizona looked quite poor.  It might make most sense for the former shortstop to play some outfield.  Of course, this means we need a new third baseman and I do not see that available in the system for next year.  Perhaps the best course of action is to put up with his poor defense as long as he is getting his walks and hitting home runs.

Cup of jO's: Platoon Advantages' Expansion Draft

The folks over at the Platoon Advantage decided it would be fun to do a thought exercise where they would come up with an expansion draft with each blogger taking a team.  The rest of us in ESPN's Sweetspot Network cooperated by providing protected lists and pull back lists.  How did it work?  I'll let them explain:

1997 Expansion Draft, were as follows:

A) Players who were drafted in the last two amateur drafts (2010 and 2011) were not eligible to be selected in the Expansion draft. Also, players selected in the 2009 amateur draft who were under the age of 19 at the time they were selected are also exempt. Teams do not have to protect these players. These same rules apply to amateur free agents who signed in the same timeframe. Therefore, neither expansion club could pick Mike Trout from the Angels.

B) Any player who is going to be a free agent, obviously, will not need to be protected in this draft, since they will not be on their team’s roster at the time of the draft. Therefore, the Mets do not have to burn a spot on Jose Reyes, unless they happen to sign him to an extension before then.

C) Teams are required to submit a list of 15 eligible players who will be “protected” for the first round, meaning that neither expansion team can select them. The Marlins, for instance, protected Mike Stanton, recognizing that he was an incredible young talent with a low salary that any expansion team would pounce on.

D) The expansion teams are only allowed to select one player from any organization per round. For instance, if one club selected Adrian Beltre from the Texas Rangers, the Rangers couldn’t lose anyone else for the rest of that round.

E) After each expansion team has picked 15 players (which would mean that every MLB club has had one players selected), each club is allowed to protect three additional players for Round 2. At that point, the process repeats itself, with 15 more picks, and three more protected players, for Round 3. This continues until each expansion team has selected 35 players.

So, who did we protect?  Who did we not protect?

First 15 . . .
C Matt Wieters - Is currently one of the best catchers in baseball.  Really.  He is.
RF Nick Markakis - He has to be better than this and he is signed to a reasonable contract.
CF Adam Jones - Reasonable salary and near All Star performance.
SP Jeremy Guthrie - Veteran pitcher, quality pitcher, cheap pitcher.
SP Brian Matusz - Lots of promise even with his recent setbacks.
SP Chris Tillman - This might surprise people, but Tillman has youth and ability.  He is still mighty young.
SP Jake Arrieta - Young, solid thrower...as you can tell, we are hoarding our pitching.
SP Zach Britton - Same thing.
SP Brad Bergesen - This might also surprise people, but he could be a cheap valuable back end starter.
SS J.J. Hardy - One of the better players on the team and a valuable trade piece.
OF Felix Pie - This list was made about eight weeks ago, I would now leave Pie off of it.
LF Luke Scott - Reasonable contract and potential value on the market.
OF Xavier Avery - Raw, toolsy outfielder.  Even with continued poor performance, I would still protect him.
UTL LJ Hoes - He has also had a rough season, but the O's system does not have many have to protect guys.
SP Bobby Bundy - We have always been high on him here at the Depot and think he can be a solid mid rotation starter.

Who did we leave available?
We left many of our high priced relievers and older veterans for the taking.  We have long thought poorly of the Roberts extension and wished for some intervention.  We also were not very high on Vlad and the multiple millions spent on fringe relievers.

Who was taken in the first round?
3B Josh Bell - We are fine with this.  Bell showed a lot of promise when he came over from the Dodgers organization.  However, his improving defense stopped improving and he has largely lost his ability to take a walk.  Without a glove, you need a big bat to succeed.  He has that potential, but I severely doubt he can fulfill that potential.

We were then allowed to pull back three players:
LF Nolan Reimold - Part of us still believes there is an above average bat here.  Reimold is getting older, but that ability is still there for him to emerge as a late bloomer.
1B Brandon Snyder - He has a good swing and not much else.  However, that might be enough.
1B Tyler Townsend - He has ability and there just is not much for us to protect on this squad.

Who was taken in the second round?
3B Mark Reynolds - We are also fine with this.  The way we see things is that Reynolds is being paid as a 2 win player.  When everything is working, he is exactly that.  Past attempts to have him play first base were dreadful and we are not sure how well he can play left field.  This might have been a poor decision on our part to pull back Snyder and not Reynolds, but we also enjoy the increased payroll flexibility.  Unfortunately, say hello to new third baseman Robert Andino!

We were then allowed to pull three more back:
C Caleb Joseph - Potentially a useful backup offensive oriented catcher.
SP Ryan Berry - I think this was before we knew the extent of his injuries, but he is a fine pitching prospect.
RP Koji Uehara - Reasonably priced, solid reliever who may be useful in trade.

No one else was selected from the organization.

We were pretty happy with how we came out in the end.  We really did not lose much and we really did not have much to lose.  Sadly, we really we not able to get rid of any of the sillier contracts we have on the books, but we knew coming in that these guys kind of knew what they were doing (outside of not taking James Shields--what?).  Anyway, anyone have any better suggestions how we should have gone about it?

Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 12

It has been awhile since I last posted the Orioles predicted wins and playoff probability.  All of the systems were sliding between 76 and 80 wins.  That just did not seem an incredibly exciting thing to update every week.  So where has a month later left us?  Between 76 and 80.  Perhaps it is slightly exciting to note that the Camden Depot and PECOTA predictions are beginning to move away from the Pythagorean.

A few more detailed notes:

• The Orioles took four wins against Seattle during the six games in which they will face each other this year.  My system predicted 3.43 wins, so this was a good outcome for the team.
• They split even with the Nationals three games a piece.  3.42 wins were expected.
• Against Cincinnati they took two of three while the expectation was 1.47 wins.
• They dropped two of their three to the Pirates where they were expected to win 1.67.

Out of these four finished series, they are +0.01 wins based on my initial projection.  This is practically breaking even.  Series against the Yankees, Jays, and Indians are not going so well and the team is likely to under-perform against those teams.

Before we get to the updated graph, here are some solid posts over the past month:
They Lathe Bats, Don't They?  An interview with a guy who makes bats for some of the Orioles
Science of Baseball Always a crowd pleaser
Revisiting MLB Reallignment

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Dempsey's Army Presents: Last Week in Chats (June 20-26)

Monday afternoons Heath from Dempsey's Army will recount all things Baltimore Orioles from the previous week's chats. It is a convenient way to learn what national writers think about specific issues that relate to the Orioles.
Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Jerry Crasnik, ESPN

Charlie milwaukee [via mobile]
Where do you see prince fielder playing next season? The teams that need and can pay fielder already have a high profile name at that position.

Jerry Crasnick (1:06 PM)
Charlie, Yep, with Boston, the Yankees and others already spoken for at first base, that puts a bit of a crimp in Prince's market. At the moment, you hear the Cubs and O's floating around as potential candidates. And as much as you hear that the Brewers are "priced out" on Prince, I wouldn't write them off entirely. Scott Boras needs to keep them in the mix as a potential landing spot.


Derek Carty, Baseball Prospectus

Ralph (Arlington):
Rank em please: Brantly, Markakis, Pagan, Torres

Derek Carty:
I think you've got the order right there. Michael Brantley, Nick Markakis, Angel Pagan, Andres Torres. Brantley and Markakis are close, but I'd probably go Brantley first.

Yatchisin (Santa Barbara):
Do you think Brian Matusz will get right this year? Opens on DL, comes off, pitches mediocre at best, tweaks hammy.... I had high hopes for him, and now am at the point of cutting him for free agent Bud Norris.

Derek Carty:
I wouldn't give up on Matusz, but if you can drop him for Norris, I'd definitely do it.


Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:57 Comment From Mark
Hi everyone. Dave, what do you think Guthrie's trade value is and would he be an upgrade for the Reds rotation? Also do you think the Marlins would trade Sanchez?

12:57 Dave Cameron:
I don't think he'll be seen as a premium guy, since he's more good command than great stuff. And no, I don't think Anibal goes anywhere.

Keith Law, ESPN

JP (DC)
I know this isn't a fantasy specific chat, but I am stuck with Ike Davis and Brian Roberts on my DL. Which player is more likely to return this season and contribute?

Klaw (2:10 PM)
Sounds like Davis might be done for the year.

Peter (Los Angeles)
Another Futures Game Question: Do you think Manny Machado & Jameson Taillon get invites this year or are they too young?

Klaw (2:19 PM)
Figured I'd answer these together. I'd say Perez and Profar or Perez and Martin. And I think both Machado and Taillon should be invited - they belong on ability.

Mike Morse (Washington DC)
*crossing Keith Law off Christmas card list*

Klaw (2:20 PM)
That's OK, Matt Wieters still sends me three every year.

Brian (AZ)
Which players from the draft do you think will get major league contracts?

Klaw (2:27 PM)
Cole, Bauer, Hultzen, Rendon. Maybe Bundy.

Norman (San Jose)
do you think Johnathan Schoop has enough bat for 3B?

Klaw (3:16 PM)
Yesp.

Klaw (3:16 PM)
Yes, and yep.


Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs.com

1:14 Comment From Rick
How do you feel about Adam Jones sustaining this level of production to a potential 25/100/15 season?

1:15 Matt Klaassen:
I was actually looking at Jones earlier. He's always had potential, but his plate approach has been so bad... this season, he's not getting lucky with BABIP or anything, and he's walking a bit more, yet he's still swinging (and missing) at about the same rate. Some guys are able to defy those peripherals. I really have no idea what's up with him. He's a special athlete, I'll give him that.






Jayson Stark, ESPN

Cole (Baltimore)
Do you think the Orioles trade Jeremy Guthrie? What would a team have to give up to get him

Jayson Stark (1:17 PM)
I continue to hear they're not anxious to trade him. And even though it isn't his fault he's 2-9, it isn't helping his value. He's one of those guys whose value to his current team is probably greater than his value on the market, but that could change.

Pete (Maryland)
Jayson - Rank of Prince Fielder's most likely destinations in 2012? Cubs, Orioles, Brewers, Angels, Rangers?

Jayson Stark (1:20 PM)
He should really go to the American League, shouldn't he? Nevertheless, I'd make the Orioles No. 1 and the Cubs No. 2. Very dubious he'd wind up with any of the other teams on your list.

Cup of jO's: Putting Reynolds Fielding into Perspective

The Orioles beat the Reds yesterday 7-5.  The game was a bit of a nail biter as Oriole pitching kept allowing the Reds get back in.  In addition there was about a one or two inning stretch where home plate umpire Al Porter seemed to be incredibly confused by his strike zone.  Regardless, the three home runs the Orioles hit proved to be too much for the Reds.  It also hurt the Reds that they left 14 men on base in comparison to the Orioles leaving seven.  Those differences are going to hurt you.

---

Mark Reynolds made two more throwing errors yesterday as well as making a few good plays.  This made me want to know just how bad historically has his defense been amongst third basemen?  The most recent update for baseball reference is that he is sitting at -10 runs.  This places him in a tie with the 103rd worst defense.  Two Orioles also share that feat: 1989 Craig Worthington and 1983 Leo Hernandez.  The last I calculated, Reynolds is on pace to be -21 runs above average for his fielding.  That would tie him for ninth worst ever with 1990 Jim Presley.

Here are the bottom ten:

1. Ryan Braun 2007 -35
2. Gary Sheffield 1993 -32
3. Ty Wigginton 2003 -28
4. Joe Torre 1971 -25
5. Mark Teahan 2005 -24
6. Edwin Encarnacion 2007 -22
--. Fernando Tatis 1999
--. Greg Norton 1999
9. Jim Preseley 1990 -21
10. Dave Hollins 1998 -19

It certainly is a good thing Mark Reynolds mashes.  A good number of poor defenders are often "rested" at DH, shifted to first, or sometimes hidden in Left Field.  However, Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, and Luke Scott are preventing him to move to those locations.  It surely will be interesting to see how far he climbs up this list.

Cup of jO's: Eye Color and Circadian Rhythm

Backbone Mountain

Garrett County's Backbone Mountain has the highest point of altitude in the Great State of Maryland.  The point, Hoye Crest, 3,360 feet high.  Last night in the Orioles' 10-5 loss to the Cincinnati Reds, the nine home runs added up to 3,633 feet.  I'm not sure that helps you appreciate the way runs were scored last night, but it certainly was an impressive hitting feat.  Unfortunately, the Reds had the better end of it.  The Reds had one more home run and more instances of having men on base.  Also it is unfortunate that the Reds offensive explosion came against Brian Matusz.  On average he is giving up almost three home runs per nine innings, which will not get it done.

I also found it a concern how Matusz' fastball changed as the night went on.  He peaked in the first inning with an 89.3 mph fastball.  The pitches hung around 88.3 during that inning.  In the second inning, it dropped to 87.5 mph.  In the third, 87 mph.  In the fourth, 86 mph.  In the fifth, a shade under 86.  That difference of a little over 3 mph is something you do not see in a starting pitcher.  That is serious fatiguing.  I imagine the 26 pitch third inning was tiring, but the trend was in place before that inning.  I do not think this bodes well for him.  You could tell that him and Wieters knew it was not good as they steadily shifted over to throwing his change up almost exclusively toward the end of the outing.  The final home run he gave up was a four pitch at bat and each pitch was a change up.  Showalter and Matusz both claim there is no injury, but I am at a loss to explain how a starter is not showing any ability to maintain velocity over the course of a couple innings.

---

In light of me not posting a Science of Baseball tonight, I thought I would write a few things about Josh Hamilton's assertion that blue eyes are bad for hitting.  I figure if we wait another week or two we will wind up finding someone posting on eye color and hitting based on ESPN profiles.  I hope I don't have to do it.  Other studies that might be similar are ones where pitching performance was compared between sunny and cloudy days.  Hitters did better on cloudy days.  As well as this recent preliminary one where player specific circadian rhythms appear to dictate how well a player performs.  In other words, night owls do better when playing at night because they are capable of staying alert.

I think it makes sense that lighter eye colors would relate to light sensitivity and this could affect the ability of a player to recognize pitches and speed.  A player basically decides when and where to swing by the time the ball has traveled about ten feet from the pitchers hand.  (side-note: I think it was the other day when an announcer or journalist wrote how pitchers had the advantage in a Reds-Giants game because the stadium shadow had moved from behind the catcher to right in front of the plate.  That makes no sense.  You can blindfold a batter for the majority of the ball's flight path because hitting it has nothing to do with last moment reactions.  Your eyes, brain, and muscles just cannot process and respond to a projectile that quickly.  So, the shadow would have had to have been about 50 feet in front of home plate to make any difference).  Anyway, Hamilton may be suffering from two things: light sensitivity and having a circadian rhythm that helps him more at night.  It should be noted that blue eyes are not blue eyes are not blue eyes.  Not every blue eyed person shows light sensitivity.  Even using baseball statistics, I am pretty sure J.J. Hardy has blue eyes and his hitting is the same day or night.

Understanding light sensitivity and circadian rhythms might prove to be beneficial for a team.  If you are looking for a time to sit a batter or how to utilize a platoon.  It might be a good idea to look at a players day/night splits and probably normalize it with dome play data.  The dome is basically your light controlled data set while non-dome is affected by light and time.  For instance, Luke Scott hits 775 OPS in the day and 875 OPS at night with an 829 OPS in a dome.  What this may tell us is that Luke is not particularly affected by light, but he does appear to have better focus for night games.  It may be that if Buck wants to give Luke a day off, he should target games in the afternoon.  When looking at MLB in general, there typically not much of a difference between OPS in day and night games.  This might be a real effect and it might be an area in which a manager could exploit.