Cup of jO's: Jonah Hill is no Paul DePodesta

Last night's 8-4 loss to the Washington Nationals was full of interesting outcomes.  First, the Orioles racked up 18 hits while scoring 4 runs.  Typically, you would expect a team to plate about 41% of their players who hit the ball.  The Orioles on the other hand managed to do that 22% of the time.  This included 4 for 5 nights from both Nick Markakis and Adam Jones.  Neither scored once.  I am not sure I have ever seen that.  The worst case scenario is that at least three of the five times through the line up you would have both men on base.  Even if that event happened with two outs every time, the run expectancy value would be 1.41 runs.  Based on the actual scenarios last night, expectancy would have been 3.38 runs.  If the batters behind Markakis and Jones were able to hit last like like average hitters, this would have been a much tighter game.  Unfortunately, Wieters had a severe case of hitting grounders last night.

The second interesting event for me last night was Mark Reynolds' 15th error.  It amazes me how hot and cold he is.  One second he will make a fantastic play and the next he will botch a sure out.  His fielding takes away almost all of his value as a hitter.  That is a rare feat.  I will actually have more on this at a later date with numbers and maybe a graph.  For now, all I have to say is that the Orioles might be best served thinking about Reynolds as a first basemen or a DH next year.  However, there are just no good options out there for third base next year.  There is a splinter of hope that Josh Bell figures things out well enough, but his defense is just as bad and good as Reynolds.  Robert Andino has the glove for third, but not the bat.  The best bats at short who might be able to flip are Jimmy Rollins and perhaps Marco Scutaro.  Neither of their bats look considerably better than what we have so cheaply in Robert Andino.  Maybe the O's are stuck with Reynolds at third.

The third interesting thing was that Jeremy Accardo was designated for assignment.  I imagine he will pass through waivers and have the option of going to Norfolk.  Accardo is another example of a relief pitcher the Orioles signed on in free agency who just did not work out.  Thinking back to the past five or six years, I am hard pressed to think of a single free agent reliever the Orioles managed to sign and it turn out alright.  You could argue Kevin Gregg this year, but his peripherals look like he is in for some adverse regression.  You could also argue the second go around with Koji, which I could only muster that it was a resigning.  Outside of those two instances we have Mike Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Danys Baez, Jaime Walker, Scott Williamson . . . well, Wil Ohman worked out.  Ohman netted us Rick VandenHurk.  You compare that to the Rays and Padres who turn relievers into gold and compensation draft picks.

---

A few days ago the Moneyball trailer was released.

What I find amusing is Jonah Hill as the representation of Paul DePodesta.  DePodesta played baseball and , I think, was a wide receiver at Harvard.  Jonah does not exactly strike me as an Ivy League wideout.  Perhaps that is why the character's name has been changed to "Peter Brand" in the movie, which is a change from the initial scripts.  Word was originally that the character was to be played by Demetri Martin.  Martin does not strike me as a wideout either.

Jonah Hill - - Paul DePodesta - - Demetri Martin

 I decided to run Paul DePodesta's image through face recognition software to come up with the top three actors who share the greatest resemblance.

Jason Biggs (33yo)

 Biggs is best known for the American Pie series.  He lately has been in a series of made for TV movies with a few straight to DVD offerings.  It also appears he has done some voiceover work.  Soon he will be back in another American Pie offering.  Jason Biggs is the right age abouts, has the face, and the rest of him is probably close enough, but with the trouble Moneyball had getting made . . . it may have been seen as him not having enough audience pull.  Jonah Hill certainly has his fans.  That might be a deciding factor against Jason Biggs.



Alexis Denisof (45 yo)

Denisof's wife Alyson Hannigan shares a connection with our first option Jason Biggs.  They were both prominent in American Pie series.  Denisof though is best known to followers of Joss Whedon.  He appeared in Whedon's Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Angel, and Dollhouse.  He has always made a few appearances on How I Met Your Mother.  Mainstream audiences are probably peripherally aware of Denisof, but I would be surprised if many would recognize his name.  There, Biggs has an advantage.  Denisof does the face and body type of Paul DePodesta, but is about ten years too old.  Biggs is probably a better choice. 

James van der Beek (34yo)

There seems to be a theme here with actors who might be a few years out of the lime light.  Jonah Hill might be able to score himself as more relevant.  Like Jason Biggs, van der Beek is also well known for who he used to be . . . who was Dawson Leery on Dawson's Creek.  Like Denisof, he too has also appeared on How I Met Your Mother.  In terms of fit, van der Beek is the right age, right face, right body type, and he could pass with a dye job.  He currently is doing some TV work as it comes.  Of these three, I'd say the lowest scoring match would be the best option.  Moneyball could have been to van der Beek as Pulp Fiction was to John Travolta.


Do you have better options?  Perhaps an actor slightly more current in his popularity.

Cup of jO's: Should Dylan Bundy get a Major League deal?

Game Wrap
Toronto 6, Baltimore 5
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Summary

The Orioles once again find themselves in the midst of a losing streak, dropping their third straight game, and third straight to divisional opponents not housed in Boston or New York. Baltimore fought back in the late innings after Toronto grabbed the early lead against Chris Jakubauskas. The momentum seeming to shift definitively in the O's favor after Matt Wieters launched his sixth homerun of the year in the eighth inning -- a two run blast off of reliever Mark Rzepczynski. But Felix Pie was stranded at third base in the eighth, Nick Markakis was stranded at second base in the ninth, Derrek Lee was stranded at second base in the tenth, and Adam Lind ended the game in the bottom of the eleventh with a lead-off walk-off homerun off a hanging splitter from Koji Uehara. Jake Arrieta will try to stop the skid this evening.

Of interest...
Of interest to me this morning is an article by Baseball America's Matt Eddy, who took a look at the track record for college pitchers that signed Major League deals out of the Draft between 2001 and 2010. As part of my responsibilities as an associate scout for a Major League organization, I spent Saturday at the ball field with my area scout watching one of our draftees, speaking with his family and trying to figure out how much our organization should offer the young man to try and entice him to sign. Throughout the game we touched on a couple of our other signees and our progress towards signing them, the draft in general, and the media coverage of the draft (the loudest chuckle came when it was mentioned that one prominent outlet referred to a pre-glasses Ricky Vaughn-esque prep arm as a "strike thrower"). We eventually made our way to discussing Dylan Bundy (Baltimore's First Round selection) and our best guesses as to what a final contract would look like.

Much has been written about Bundy, and a few minutes of "Googling" will reveal a common sentiment that Bundy is generally as advanced as the college arms in the class, and thus could move very quickly through the minors. In presenting my best guess as to the final deal, I stated that the primary sticking point will likely be whether or not Baltimore gives him a Major League deal. My colleague took the opposite stance, stating they'll have no issue doing as much, and would be right to do so. To be clear, our opinion on the matter should have no impact on the actual negotiations, and neither of us saw enough of Bundy this spring to provide actual insight into how the process should shake down -- this was just two evaluators (one good; one learning) spitballing.

It is natural that Matt Eddy's piece caught my eye when I scanned through my morning readings, and as soon as I hit "publish" on the blogger.com interface I am going to forward the article to my Area Scout to stimulate further discussion. Essentially, Eddy concludes that the players offered Major League deals were "worthy" according to draft time evaluations, but neither the size of their deal nor the number of options they ultimately burned through (anywhere from zero to four) correlated with their future success. The group of 14 arms was a true mixed bag, with successes such as Justin Verlander, Mark Prior, David Price and Jeremy Guthrie (with Brian Matusz and Max Scherzer each showing promise) and flops the likes of Dewon Brazelton, Craig Hansen and Andrew Miller, with a whole lot of tweeners and TBDs*.

While the article doesn't point us in a particularly useful direction with regards to determining the correct course of action for Baltimore and Bundy, it does illustrate that even the surest arms in a given draft are not necessarily "safe", and even the arms that ultimately make it can take drastically different paths on their way to productivity.

* - Jeremy Guthrie's name was orginally mentioned twice in this sentence.

Revisiting MLB Reallignment and Expansion: Part I

One division leagues were good enough for Brook and the '66 O's

This past weekend Buster Olney reported that there has been some talk about reallignment MLB into two leagues without divisions.  There is also the possibility that with the uneven number of teams in each league that either there will be interleague games everyday or that two teams will be added to MLB.  The traditionalist in me is somewhat conflicted in that this is a radical change (which is bad), but corrects for the radical change implemented in 1969.  Before then, there were ten team leagues.  The new model would pit 15 teams (or 16) against each other and the top five records would move on to postseason play.  I actually like this idea and most Oriole fans should like it as well.

A major reason why Orioles fans should like this is that it ceases to make the Orioles look like a team that cannot make the postseason.  As it stands, the team has to win the division or a wild card by facing off against teams with better revenue (Boston, New York) or better front offices (Boston, Tampa, Toronto(?)).  It is likely that two of the best teams in baseball are likely to emerge from the AL East.  By scrapping the divisions and bringing back a balanced schedule, the Orioles stand a greater chance of playing meaningful baseball in September.

The next best reason is that it is a fair way to determine who are the best teams.  As it stands right now, you could have teams with losing records or barely winning records make the playoffs.  These teams, in a playoff format, can string wins together and win out.  This might be great for underdog story lines (yes, I am thinking of the Cardinals a few years back), but it is more likely to prevent us from seeing great baseball in October.  The five best teams in baseball should be rewarded.  The league should not subject itself to a poor design merely due to history.  They need to do what logically makes sense.  If you want the best teams in the playoffs to figure out who the best team is, then put the best teams in the playoffs.  It is rather simple.

The third reason I think this is a great idea is that it will be another force to push players from concentrating in a single city with large revenue streams.  For instance, if you are a star player and are being courted by New York, Boston, and Baltimore, you will lean toward Boston and New York because they are organizations that are likely to be in the playoffs.  A player who is in the playoffs is likely to earn more money during the contract due to performance payouts and the player is likely to gain that playoff aura which will earn him more money when he becomes a free agent again (think Carlos Beltran).  For players who are career minded, playoff appearances look good in the current climate with respect to Hall of Fame considerations.  All of these reasons push the players away from the Orioles and require the team to appeal to a player's desire of money against two titans of revenue.  This helps even the playing field as well.

I do not really have any reason to scrap interleague play other than to say that it is also a source of unfairness.  It does not appear to increase revenue.  Whatever fan attracting revenue it had is lost or is so swamped out with meaningless games that a Mets-Yankees rivalry means awfully little.  I also think that scrapping interleague play will bring more interest to the All Star game as well as to the World Series.  With that in mind . . . I am all for MLB expansion.  People will often complain about there not being enough talent to go around, but they really need to go back and rewatch baseball just prior to the first of the two 1990s expansions.  Talent level slightly dipped after that expansion and the second, but has plateau out again. 

With that in mind, here is my radical reallignment idea:

I divided the leagues to try to make the leagues even with respect to team value which resulted in five teams switching leagues.  All five teams are transferred to take advantage of potential rivalries due to geographic proximity.

American League (7838 MM)
New York Yankees (1700)
Boston Red Sox (912)
Texas Rangers (561)
Minnesota Twins (490)
Houston Astros (474) - develop in state rivalry
Seattle Mariners (449)
Washington Nationals (417) - develop Baltimore rivalry
Baltimore Orioles (411)
Detroit Tigers (385)
Florida Marlins (360) - develop rivalry with Tampa
Cleveland Indians (353)
Kansas City Royals (351)
Toronto Blue Jays (337)
Tampa Bay Rays (331)
Oakland A's (304)

National League (7843 MM)
Los Angeles Dodgers (800)
Chicago Cubs (773)
New York Mets (747)
Philadelphia Phillies (609)
San Francisco Giants (563)
Los Angeles Angels (554) - shift value to NL, create cross town rival with Dodgers
Chicago White Sox (526) -  shift value to NL, create cross town rival with White Sox
St. Louis Cardinals (518)
Atlanta Braves (482)
Colorado Rockies (414)
San Diego Padres (406)
Arizona Diamondbacks (396)
Milwaukee Brewers (376)
Cincinatti Reds (375)
Pittsburgh Pirates (304)

As these leagues stand, this puts 15 teams in each.  In my next post, I will look at the top five cities that should be considered for MLB expansion.

Cup of jO's: Evaluating catchers' ability to frame pitches

Game Wrap
No game last tonight. Tonight Baltimore kicks-off a series in Toronto.

Of interest...
Of interest to me this morning is an article from last week, found over at the Hardball Times. Max Marchi put together an interesting attempt at evaluating a catcher's ability to frame pitches. It is an interesting read tackling an interesting question -- exactly how important is a catcher's ability to frame a pitch? Entering the piece, I admit I was dubious that 1) a study on the matter would be of any utility, and 2) the ultimate impact of having a "good" versus an "average" pitch framer would be negligable. While I'm not sold on some of the conclusions, I do think Marchi put together an interesting argument with solid support and at minimum a nifty little framework through which to view the skill:

"[P]laying with a receiver who is good at framing pitches is the equivalent of having a pitcher friendly umpire calling the game."

Without delving into the deep and dirties here (you should absolutely check out the piece), Marchi essentially concludes that a catcher can positively impact a pitcher's ability to get a called strike on a pitch out of the zone, and the catchers most adept at this skill can be worth up to two extra wins a year. While intuitively this seems excessive to me, I would not go so far as to say it is unbelievable. In particular, this particular skill amounts to an ability to manifest an out in two-strike counts or shift counts to pitcher friendly, where batter outcome expectency tends to favor the defending team. In any event, provided you buy into this skill as having a non-negligable impact on a team's win probability, Baltimore fans should be pleased to have a quiet and steady receiver in Wieters.

Finally, Marchi suggests his valuations may even be conservative:

The number could even be a conservative estimate. In fact, as soon as a pitcher realizes his catcher gives him an edge on borderline pitches, he should immediately begin to exploit the advantage.

This is a stretch, assuming pitchers can generally place the ball with enough precision to hit specific "off the plate windows" required to get a strike call while missing the zone. I am also unsure as to why Marchi would believe that pitchers aren't already trying to hit these "just off the plate" spots as is. Of course I believe the receiving skill to be valuable, and I can even buy into the skill's contributions to win probability being something north of negligible. But I don't personally see this as the next overlooked and undervalued area for GM's to farm.

Maybe Jon will have some thoughts as to how reliable he believes the "added wins" calculations to be...

2011 Depot Draft Coverage: O's Draft vs. Depot's Draft Pt.1

I am going to be putting together a more in-depth review of the O's draft as part of the DSS full draft review in the coming weeks. For now we are going to do a brief recap of the Orioles draft and our Depot Shadow Draft through the first ten rounds. We'll cover Rounds 1-5 this afternoon and post Rounds 6-10 this evening. We will touch on a few later round picks over the weekend.

1st Round
Orioles Selection
Dylan Bundy (rhp, Owasso HS, Owasso, Okla.) Bundy was viewed by many, including us, as the top prep arm in the draft class, and one of the best overall draft-eligible arms. This selection was roundly applauded by the trade journals and national publications covering the amateur draft, as well as the talking heads at MLB Network and ESPN. Bundy lacks prototypical size, but is plenty strong and utilizes sound mechanics and an advanced approach to the craft. Along with Gerrit Cole, the Oklahoma ace sat on draft day as one of the only true potential #1 starters available. Our full report on Bundy can be found here. While we ended-up going in a different direction in our Shadow Draft, this is a strong pick and a nice pairing with last year's 1st Rounder, Manny Machado (ss, A Delmarva)


Depot Selection
Anthony Rendon (3b, Rice Univ.) With our unprotected pick (pick given in exchange for our 2010 Shadow Draft pick, Karsten Whitson, not signing) we tabbed the #1 prospect on our board -- Anthony Rendon. The Rice third basemen struggled through the spring with a sore shoulder, limiting him to DH duty. Time will tell if his down power output in 2011 was a result of the shoulder, being pitched around, the new BBCOR bats, or some combination. In the end, the upside was too great to pass on, as "Tony Rendoni" represents elite upside in the safest cross-section of draft-eligible players -- college position players -- and also addresses an organizational need. Our full report on Rendon, including several in-game videos, can be found here.

Derek "Bubba" Starling (of, Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.) We stayed with upside with our protected pick, grabbing perhaps the highest-ceilinged talent in the entire draft. Starling has split his attention between three sports (this year, just football and baseball) and is less refined than his contemporaries at the top of our preference list. Despite limited focus on baseball, he stood out among the top high school talents through last year's scouting circuit, and represents a true potential five-tool talent capable of plus defense in center field and true plus tools across the board. This is a roll of the dice, but our feeling was that Baltimore needs impact talent more than anything, and pairing Rendon with Starling gives the O's a shot at the two top positional talents available. Because Starling is a two-sport player, his bonus will likely be broken down over five years, which should allow us to target one or two more over-slotters later on. Our full report on Starling with lots of video can be found here.


2nd Round
Orioles Selection
Jason Esposito (3b, Vanderbilt Univ.) Esposito ended his 2010 season at Vandy as an early 1st Round favorite, but struggled some manifesting power with wood through the summer with the USA Collegiate National Team. He shifted off of shortstop this spring and fit nicely at third base, showing solid hands, enough range and a strong and accurate arm. The big question mark for Esposito will be his ability to square-up advanced pitching, and in particular good velocity, with wood. Tony Pente at OriolesHangout.com reported that Scouting Director Joe Jordan feels confident that bat speed will not be an issue (with a focus on "going the other way" the culprit in his uneven performances last summer and this spring). If he hits, he has the potential to provide 20-25 homeruns a year and solid defense at third.

Depot Selection
Dillon Howard (rhp, Searcy HS, Searcy, Ark.) With Daniel Norris (lhp, Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn.) and Dillon Howard on the board, we couldn't pass on the opportunity to add another young power arm to our system (keep in mind we drafted Zack Wheeler and Brody Colvin in prior Shadow Drafts). Howard throws a bowling ball of a fastball, showing bore and producing soft groundball contact. His change-up, at its best, is in the discussion for best prep off-speed behind Tyler Beede, and the projectable frame gives some comfort that he'll get even stronger as he continues to mature -- lessening the chance that the longer pro seasons will negatively impact his stuff. Howard will be a tough sign, but we estimate around $1.5 to 2 million could get it done.


3rd Round
Orioles Selection
Mike Wright (rhp, East Carolina Univ.) Wright is a big bodied groundball machine, firing a 89-92 mph sinker and a low-80s slider with average bite. Over 100 IP this spring, Wright allowed just two homeruns -- we'll see this is a theme for Baltimore this year. The Orioles clearly see Wright as a potential starter and he has the size to endure a long pro season. His arsenal is currently light for a pro starter, but his fastball/slider combo will be enough to live on through A-ball, giving him time to refine his change-up or look to add an off-speed in another form, such as a splitter. This is a slight reach in our opinion, but if Jordan and company are correct in viewing Wright as a starter, they could be landing a true #3/#4 on the cheap.

Depot Selection
Logan Verrett (rhp, Baylor Univ.) Verrett didn't thrill this spring, and didn't get much ink in the national press. But the Baylor righty was solid and continued to show the three-pitch mix that projects well to a pro rotation. He can miss bats with both secondaries (change-up and slider) and will scrape 94 mph, sitting more regularly 89-92. He lacks Wright's size, and his fastball, but has a more well-rounded complement of offerings. His ceiling probably isn't any higher than Wright's, but he may have a slightly better chance of reaching it.


4th Round
Orioles Selection
Kyle Simon (rhp, Univ. of Arizona) Simon throws from a low, almost side-armed, slot, relying primarily on a fastball/change-up pairing. Like Wright, he is a big-bodied righty with some arm strength and a chance to start if things break right. Inconsistencies in his release and his low-angle make it difficult for him to command his slider right now -- improving that offering will be key in determining whether or not he ultimately ends up in the pen. Like Wright, he's tough to lift because of the sink on his heater and his change, allowing him to go 128.2 IP while allowing just two homeruns. He doesn't miss may bats right now, but the hope is that he will once he finds a more consistent breaker.

Depot Selection
Charlie Lowell (lhp, Wichita St. Univ.) Lowell is an arm-strength lefty with a solid slider, sitting low-90s with his fastball and touching 95 mph. He comes with deception and creates a tough angle on his pitches. We view him as a likely bullpen arm with enough size and stuff to make it to at least Double-A as a part of a rotation. If he can find consistency in an off-speed offering, he could stick as a back-end starter.


5th Round
Orioles Selection
Matt Taylor (lhp, Middle Georgia Coll.) A Jordan special, Taylor is a JuCo arm with some velo and some projection in his stuff. Taylor likely profiles in the pen, where his upper-80s to low-90s fastball might see a bump in shorter stints. His change-up is workable and will even show flashes above-average, but the secondaries are a step behind. At the time of the draft we considered Taylor an over-slot sign due to his opportunity to join the Georgia Bulldogs next year and further improve his stock. But the Orioles proved us wrong, inking the lefty this past weekend. Taylor doesn't wow you, but he is a solid upside lefty that could provide solid innings in a pro pen or potentially develop into a back-end arm with mid-rotation ceiling if a pro development staff can help him get more out of his secondaries.


Depot Selection
Matt Skole (3b/1b, Georgia Tech) Skole's best assets are his head and his raw power. He is a savvy hitter, commanding the strikezone well and showing competency in hitting-where-pitched. The Tech third baseman is likely not long for the hot corner, however, which will put pressure on his bat to tap into the plus raw power he possesses. His swing and approach is geared more to the gaps, but our hope is that some adjustments in pro ball will allow him to generate a little more loft. He could be a bit of a tweener, but after missing out on Cody Asche by a dozen or so picks, we felt we needed to grab a corner bat and Skole was a nice fit.



Rounds 1 through 5: Summary

Essentially, the comparison between the Orioles's draft and the Depot's draft will come down to how the kids up top perform. Assuming Bundy, Rendon and Starling all sign, the pairings we'll be watching will be Bundy/Machado vs. Rendon/Starling. While we love the upside of our picks, there are questions with both Rendon (health) and Starling (refinement), making it difficult for us to trumpet our selections over Jordan's. Where we did surpass Baltimore's approach, I think, is in the 2nd Round, where we grabbed another 1st Round calibre talent in Dillon Howard. Time will tell if he signs, but provided he does he will be another entry into our growing low minors talent base.

Outside of the first two rounds, the Orioles did an excellent job of identifying players with solid upside and high floors. There is a little more potential swing-and-miss for us with Skole and Lowell, but ultimately we think the Depot Shadow Draft was well balanced through the first five rounds. Tomorrow we'll look at Rounds 6 through 10, including two examples of Scouting Director Joe Jordan reading the draft pool noticeably better than us.

Cup of jO's: Early draft signings

Game Wrap
Baltimore 6, Tampa Bay 9
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Summary

The Rays took two of three from Baltimore this weekend, including an extra-inning victory on Saturday after a blown save by Kevin Gregg. Yesterday afternoon Brian Matusz had difficulty commanding any of his offerings, and fluttered around 4-5 mph shy of his typical fastball velocity. It is still early in Matusz's season, and it can be expected that it will take several starts for him to once again get fully comfortable on the mound to the point that he can let things fly. If we are still seeing these results at the beginning of July, it will be time to worry.

Of interest...
Of interest to me this morning is the fact that Baltimore has announced that they have come to terms with 5th Rounder Matt Taylor (lhp, Middle Georgia Coll.). While it isn't uncommon for a 5th Rounder to sign this quickly, the fact that Baltimore is inking a JuCo player to a slot deal in the early rounds is solid news. It isn't uncommon for JuCo talents worthy of high round consideration to hold out for overslot deals, as more often than not they will have a chance to transfer to a 4-year school and increase their value significantly for the following year's draft. With Taylor's deal announced now, we can be certain Baltimore is getting him for slot (overslot deals cannot be announced without approval of MLB, and they would not give such approval this early). That means more money for some of the later potential overslot guys, including TCU's Jason Coats (lf).

Further heightening my excitement for Baltimore's slot pull is the fact that conversations with Area Scouts this weekend revealed a number of 4th and 5th Rounders who have stated overslot demands after claiming they would sign for slot pre-draft. Ultimately these deals will all get done, but it is certainly preferable to have the player and the drafting organization on the same page. The harder either side digs in, the more confrontational the other side must be in negotiating. Put another way, the greater the distance between player/organization demands, the greater the likelihood that someone is going to get their feelings hurt during negotiations. Great job by Joe Jordan and the signing scout (and will give a nod to Lady Luck, as well) for reading the situation correctly with Taylor and getting this deal done quickly.

Part 1 of our review of the Depot Shadow Draft and the O's top ten picks will post around 1pm, with a look at Rounds 1 through 5.

The Science of Baseball: June 12, 2011

We have three more topics this week in this edition of the Science of Baseball.  We will dive into different techniques to generate more bat speed while standing in the on-deck circle.  I used to always use donuts and multiple bats when I played.  I mainly did this because the bat "felt" lighter and, more so, everyone else did it.  Second, we will take a look at base running.  A study focused on differences between untrained sprinters and college baseball players when running bases.  Finally, with the draft over and the signings beginning...what effect does the presence of prospects have on Minor League attendance?

Effect of various warmup devices on bat swing velocity of college baseball players.
Szymanski et al 2011 J Strength Conditioning Res

This study focused on the effects of certain warm-up devices to increase bat speed at the plate.  The subjects were 22 DI baseball players.  The warm-up devices included: resistance tubing device worn by player while swinging standard baseball bat (33 in, 30 oz), 96 oz on-deck implement, weighted batting gloves (25 oz each) worn while swinging a standard bat, 25 oz weight (added to standard bat), 16 oz donut ring (added to standard bat), 14 oz plastic fins (air resisted device added to standard bat), 34 oz wood bat, 26 oz aluminum bat, 22 oz fungo bat, and a 33 in, 30 oz aluminum baseball bat.

The experimental design included a warm-up, five minutes rest, three full effort swing with warm-up device, two swings with the standard bat, and then three game simulated swings with a 20 second rest period between swings.  Bat velocity was measured on the game simulated swings.  No differences were found between the different warm up devices.  This includes being compared to the control which is when no warm up device is used.  In other words, weighted bats do no appear to increase bat speed.  However, this does contradict previous research.  Here is one example where it was found that warm up routines with different weighted bats had different effects on bat speed.  This might require a few more studies before we can determine whether or not weighted bats help or hurt.

Comparison of base running in baseball players and track and field athletes.
Miyaguchi et al. 2011 Health 3:26-31. pdf

I adore Japanese studies on baseball.  They certainly look at the game in a more nuts and bolts sort of way.  Yes, tradition is big, but there are some elements of assured knowing that seem strange to me.  For instance, the idea that catcher ERA means much of anything.  Yes, catchers do affect the game, but it is in a way that it would be quite difficult to ascertain through something as generic as ERA.  However, this is a tangent.

In this study, the researchers took students on the baseball team and those on the track and field teams and evaluated their speed and speed efficiency.  They measured straight sprints of distances similar to running home to second as well as completely around the bases.  They also measured these same distances with the players actually running the bases.  As expected running with a twist slowed the runners down.  Runners were about a half second slower for every turn (1 second slower to second, 2 seconds slower to home).  What was interesting (and obvious) is that baseball players were most efficient in retaining speed.  Where sprinters had a higher mean speed in a straight line sprint, they lost that advantage when turns were included.

Perhaps the limiting part of this study is that these were not elite athletes.  It may be that elite talent would differ in that elite runners are considerable faster than elite baseball players.  There are a lot of 80 runners in track and only a handful in the Majors.  However, it does show that athletes with relatively similar ability benefit from knowing how to take turns when running.  So, yes, the sky is still blue.

Top prospects and Minor League Baseball attendance
Gitter and Rhoads 2011 J Sports Econ 12:341-351

This is an article written by two individuals located at Towson University.  They have written several papers in the past looking at how different aspects of a Minor League team affects attendance.  For one, they found new stadiums attract fans.  However, in this article they find that for the most part top prospects do not bring more fans out to the ballpark.  This study found that the only prospects that improved attendance were prospects that ranked in the top 5 of Baseball America.  That bump in attendance was 4% (for top 5 prospects).  As a prospect focused person, I do not find it all that surprising. 

We run several prospect pieces on this site and we do it because we enjoy it.  The readership numbers on those pieces are rather low.  This made me look up numbers for the Delmarva Shorebirds as this year they have a number of great talents on their team and that contrasts greatly with last year.  Last year, the Shorebirds averaged 3,157 per game.  This year with their prospect heavy team, 2,895 per game.  This might be an issue with whole season vs first part of season comparisons (one imagines when school ends that attendance will jump up), but it seems that the prospects presence does not account for much.

Some of us remember that a reason that was floated for Rochester to end its arrangement with the Orioles was that the Orioles' AAA squads were awful and had been awful for about two decades.  It was claimed the lack of prospects and the poor play led to poor attendance.  The team not winning likely affected things.  The lack of top prospects?  Only indirectly through not winning.

Cup of jO's: Orioles Announce Military Appreciation Program

Last night, Mark Reynolds hit two homeruns and is making us look a little silly.  Unbeknownst to you all, we were involved in an exercise with ESPN's Sweetspot network to simulate an expansion draft.  Mark Reynolds was left off our initial protection list, our first pull back, and our second pull back.  Our perspective was that the money due to him would be better spent elsewhere.  Oh well...more troubling was Kevin Gregg harking back to his Cubs and Marlins' says when he had average luck.  O's lost in extra frames.

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For those of you in our Armed Forces, we felt the Orioles new program would be of interest:

Orioles Announce New Military Appreciation Program

Program includes ticket offers, suite donations for military and families

Aspects of the Program:

1. Ticket discounts at every game - the Orioles are offering a $3 discount off of all tickets for all military (active, retired, and reserve) and their families, available at the Oriole Park Box Office.  More significant discounts for military members can be arranged by contacting their ITT/Leisure Travel office.
2. Military Sundays - During non-prime games on Sundays, members of the military (active, retired, and reserve) are available for buy one, get one free for select sections through their ITT/Leisure Travel Office.
3. Sunday Suite Program - Every Sunday game, Orioles donate a catered private suite to wounded soldiers and other active military groups and their families.  Guests will be treated to a special player meet and greet before the game, recognition after the playing of "God Bless America" and will receive t-shirts and hats.  Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Jim Johnson, Luke Scott, and Matt Wieters will all participate in the program.
4. Active Duty Special Offer - Show your active duty ID badge at the Warehouse's Fan AssistanceCenter to receive a complementary Orioles cap.
5. Welcome Home Scoreboard Messages - Orioles offer free "Welcome Home" messages, call 888-848 Bird to get more information.

Hope this enables the Orioles to thank many of you.