Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 21, 2011

Don't forget today's 136th running of the Preakness

Baltimore 5, Washington 17
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap

The Orioles opened up their interleague play last night and Ryan Adams made his debut at second base.  He collected his first Major League hit, a single, and turned his first Major League double play.  The Orioles' offense also performed well by knocking out the Nationals' starter Jason Marquis after four innings.  Hmmmm . . . what else?  The rest of the game is somewhat forgettable.  Oh right . . . the Orioles pitching was outright crushed last night.  The Orioles and Nationals had the same ineffective starting pitchers, but the Nationals' pen shut the Orioles out.  The Orioles' pen gave up eleven runs, largely coming from five home runs, over 5.1 innings.  This has been a rough week on the Orioles' pen even though they had some time off.  I'm not sure why position players were not throwing from the mound some time this week.  There is little sense in wasting your pen in a lopsided game.

Stat of the game

209

The average team throws  around 145 pitches per game.  The Orioles threw 209, which means the Orioles threw enough extra pitches to cover about five extra innings.  This bullpen has been ineffective and overworked.

Orioles Game ball

Ryan Adams (1-4, first MLB hit)

MiLB game balls

Norfolk (Box) - Rhyne Hughes, 1B (3-5, 2B (8), HR (5))
Bowie (Box) - Xavier Avery, CF (2-2, 2 2B(7), 2 BB)
Frederick (Box) - Bobby Stevens, 2B-RF (1-3, HR (3), BB)
Delmarva (Box) - Kipp Schutz, LF (3-4, 3 2B (13), BB)

Three Morning Links

Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan wrote a piece noting how 2011 draft prospect and Bobby Bundy's little brother, Dylan Bundy, is asking teams not to draft him if they will interfere with his long tossing program.  Six hours later, Passan tweets that Bundy's adviser says not true.

Ex-Oriole Phil Bradley is helping Mizzou women's softball as an assistant coach.

MASN's Roch Kubatko writes that Jason Berken's next outing will be for the Norfolk Tides and troubled pitcher Alfredo Simon will be summoned for Saturday's game.

Up Next

Jeremy Guthrie (4.05 xFIP, 102 ERA+) finally gets back on the mound after a few days of rest from his impromptu relief performance.  He will face off against John Lannan (4.53 xFIP, 84 ERA+) and will try to even the series.

Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 20, 2011

Baltimore 2, New York (A) 13
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap

The Orioles ran out their "B" team against Yankee's ace C.C. Sabathia, with expected results. The O's were held scoreless until the bottom of the 9th, as the Yankees cruised to 13-2 win and 2 game sweep of the Birds. Brad Bergesen did not spot any of his pitches, and the Bombers made him pay -- plating 8 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in just 3.1 IP. Sabathia struck Nick Markakis in the back with a fastball, "evening the score" after two accidental HBP from Baltimore (Chris Dickerson on Wednesday and Robbie Cano last night). The O's and Yanks next meet in the Bronx for a three game set, July 29-31.

Stat of the game

0-6

Baltimore's record against New York so far in 2011. Enough said.

Orioles Game ball

Adam Jones (2-4, 2B (7))

MiLB game balls

Norfolk (Box) - Nolan Reimold, DH (2-4, RBI (22))
Bowie (Box) - Nick Bierbrodt, LHP (in relief, 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO)
Frederick (Box) - Buck Britton, 3B (3-4, 2 2B (9))
Delmarva (Box) - Riley Hornback, C (1-3, 2B (1), BB)

Three Morning Links

Avi Zaleon and Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com examine the rotation shuffle after the Yankees series.

Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tells us Ryan Adams and Nolan Reimold will replace Troy Patton and Chris Jakubauskas on the 25-man.

MASN's Roch Kubatko is a little saucy after the beanballs hurled by Yankee starters and carries over the snark to his look at the upcoming series with the Nats -- good stuff.

Up Next

Jake Arrieta (3.71 xFIP, 98 ERA+) will bring his big fastball and power breaker to the hill against Jason Marquis (3.53 xFIP, 107 ERA+) and the Natinals.

Game Wrap and (Afternoon) Links: May 19, 2011

Baltimore 1, New York (A) 4
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap

Zach Britton wasn't particularly sharp, but he held the Yankees to one unearned run through seven innings. Unfortunately, Bartolo Colon was quite sharp, spotting his 2-seamer to both sides of the plate and keeping it down in the zone throughout eight innings, holding Baltimore scoreless. The O's finally broke through in the ninth, against future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera no less, sending the game to extra innings. Using the entire pen, Showalter was forced to insert Jeremy Guthrie in the 15th after Mike Gonzalez was surprisngly ejected for hitting Chris Dickerson in the head with an errant pitch. Perhaps he was tossed because the HBP happened to followd a Robbie Cano go-ahead double, but it seems clear from replays and context that Gonzalez simply missed badly with the Dickerson offering. It was another anemic night for the Baltimore offense, who standed 15 runners and went just 3-15 with runners in scoring position. Because Guthrie was used last night, Brad Bergesen will start opposite CC Sabathia tonight, with Matt Wieters scheduled to get the day off.

Stat(s) of the game

20.1

The number of consecutive innings rookie sensation Zach Britton has thrown without allowing an earned run. His .227 BABIP is freakishly low, even for an elite groundball pitcher, and may not be sustainable. But even with moderate correction he is throwing like a mid-rotation starter. If he can continue to have balls find the gloves of his teammates, he will remain in the Rookie of the Year running.

Orioles Game ball

Zach Britton (7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO)

MiLB game balls

Norfolk (Box) - Nolan Reimold, LF (2-4 HR (6))
Bowie (Box) - Greg Miclat, 2B (1-2, 2B (7), BB)
Frederick (Box) - Buck Britton, DH (2-5, HR (3))
Delmarva (Box) - Scott Copeland, RHP (8 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO)

Three Morning Links

MASN's Roch Kubatko reviews and comments upon Buck's post game press conference, including discussion of the Gonzalez ejection.

Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun says Caesar Izturis could be out up to 8 weeks following surgery on his right elbow.

Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies thinks Zach Britton could be tabbed Baltimore's lone All-Star rep in July.

Up Next

Brad Bergesen (4.22 xFIP, 91 ERA+) pairs with battery mate Jake Fox to try for the split against C.C. Sabathia (3.47 xFIP, 115 ERA+).

2011 Depot Draft Preview: Finding 1:4 (Danny Hultzen)

We continue our annual look at amateur talents the Baltimore Orioles could (should) be targeting in the 1st Round and beyond. Over the next two weeks we will bear down on the eight potential 1st Round targets listed below, followed by a week dedicated to the 2nd - 5th Rounds and finally the 6th - 10th Rounds. As a reminder, the draft coverage here will focus on Baltimore. More in-depth coverage, including rankings, scouting reports, videos and more can be found over at http://www.diamondscapescouting.com/.

Potential targets at 1:4

Anthony Rendon / 3b / Rice Univ.
Gerrit Cole / rhp / UCLA
Bubba Starling / of/rhp / Gardner Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Sonny Gray / rhp / Vanderbilt Univ.
Danny Hultzen / lhp / Univ. of Virginia
Dylan Bundy / rhp / Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.)
Taylor Jungmann / rhp / Univ. of Texas
Jed Bradley / lhp / Georgia Tech

*Every player discussed in the Depot Draft Preview has been scouted by Nick J. Faleris, either through his efforts at DiamondScape Scouting or as part of his duties as an Associate Scout in the Midwest Region for a National League organization.

Danny Hultzen (lhp, Univ. of Virginia)
Ht/Wt: 6-3/220
B/T: L/L
Year: Junior
Age at Draft: 21y6m
Games Scouted: 1 (in person); 8 (video)

Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 50/55 (55)
Fastball: 55/60 (55/60)
Slider: 50 (55/60)
Change: 60/65 (65/70)
Control: 55/60 (60)
Command: 55 (60)
Feel: 55/50 (60)
Overall Future Potential: 58/60

*Notes on Grades: The Scouting Scale works from 20-80, with 50 being Major League Average. The scale operates loosely on a bell curve, so the further you move from 50 the fewer grades you'll find among ML players (e.g. Aroldis Chapman's fastball, Ichiro Suzuki's arm strength, Adam Dunn's power and Albert Pujols' hit tool would all be 80 grade). A 60 grade is sometimes referred to as plus and a 70 grade is sometimes referred to as plus-plus.

Physical Description:
Broad shoulders, broad hips, high waist. Handles long limbs well, solid body control. Lean, athletic build with sturdy trunk.

Motion:
Hultzen keeps a good pace and repeats his simple mechanics with ease. Throwing out of a low three-quarters arm slot and shielding the ball well, he creates good angle on his offerings and is difficult to pick-up and to square. He has a medium arm circle that he keeps well shielded (though he will at times hook and flash on the backside), and gives a late look at the ball as he is accelerating forward, helping the ball to really jump on hitters. He is a medium strider, but his long limbs help him to get solid extension and he stays out and over his plant leg well.

Stuff:
Fastball - 90-93 mph last year but generally dropping off into the 88-90 range by the late innings, Hultzen has maintained his velocity a little more consistently this spring. Additionally, he saw a bump in velo earlier in the season, touching 95 mph (some reported 96) in several starts. Because he took the summer off last year, and the velocity hasn't been a mainstay in his later season starts, there is some concern that he'll be closer to 90-92 once he's shouldering a pro workload. He spots the pitch well and gets a lot of swings-and-misses up in the zone after setting-up hitters with his secondaries down.

Change-up - Hultzen's change is regularly a plus offering right now, and perhaps the best off-speed pitch in the draft class. He throws 78-82 mph with arm slot deception with the pitch regularly boasting late fade and drop. He effectively runs the pitch outside to righties, with it serving as a "disappearing" off-speed and true swing-and-miss weapon. As noted above, it is also useful to set-up his average to above-average fastball.

Slider - The largest improvement this spring may have come in the consistency and command Hultzen has shown with his breaking ball. A fringy pitch last spring, it has been a solid average offering in 2011 and a useful third weapon, particularly as a backdoor pitch to righties and a bury pitch to lefties. There is minimal upside, as the pitch lacks ideal tilt, but it could end-up above-average with reps and continued improvement in implementation and execution. He was 79-82 last spring and has raised his velo a tick to 80-83, touching 84 mph on occasion.

Discussion:
Hultzen entered the spring as one of the higher probability arms with mid-rotation upside, and has grown that projection into a ceiling as a true #2 starter. He has roundly won over evaluators and gets glowing reviews from the national media outlets covering the draft. The UVA lefty has been tried, tested and proven repeatedly over his three year career in Charlottesville, showing growth in stuff each year, poise on the mound and improved durability. The concerns with Hultzen hang on his slider and his fastball velocity. Hultzen's motion creates a tough angle on hitters and produces a limited view of the ball before release, giving the illusion of pitches jumping on hitters. The draw back is that the angle and plane of his slider limit both the tilt on the pitch and the strike entry window at the plate. If more advanced hitters are able to identify the pitch early enough (a task admittedly made more difficult by the mechanics) the utility of the pitch may peak at "giving them a different look." Additionally, while the maintenance of low-90s fastball velocity into later innings is a big step forward, the peak velocity reaching 95/96 mph in the early spring may not be here to stay. As it is the frequency of the peak velos have dropped in recent starts, and Hultzen may have benefited early this year from his recharge after taking the summer off. Throwing on shorter rest through a longer season could, likewise, negatively affect his ability to climb up to the 95 mph range with consistency. His easy arm action negates some of these concerns, but they are worth keeping in mind. All in all, Hultzy is an advanced college arm with three legit ML pitches, including a potential fringe plus-plus change-up, and advanced pitchability and command. He is a safe pick with good ceiling if everything continues to click and should be off the board in the first ten picks.

Projected position: #2/#3 starter on tier one team
Suggested draft slot: Top ten overall

Video:






This scouting report originally published by the author here.

Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 18, 2011

Baltimore, Boston (ppd rain)
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap

The O's/Sox had the second and final game of their short series at Fenway postponed due to inclement weather. It has been announced that Zach Britton, scheduled to start last night in Boston, will get the nod tonight against the Yanks, with Jeremy Guthrie taking the mound on Thursday.

Stat(s) of the game

2

The number of Orioles expected to be placed on the disabled list prior to tonight's game. Derrek Lee and Caesar Izturis appear to be troubled by an oblique and nerve in the hand, respectively. Troy Patton (lhp, AAA Norfolk) and Brandon Snyder (1b, AAA Norfolk) are expected to replace them on the 25-man roster.

Orioles Game ball

Brandon Snyder (Call-up for the former top 10 organizational prospect)

MiLB game balls

Norfolk (Box) - Ryan Adams, 2B (3-5, 2B (10), RBI (8))
Bowie (Box) - Alfredo Simon, LHP (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, W (1))
Frederick (Box) - Rick Zagone, LHP (6 IP, 3 H 0 R, 4 BB, 2 SO, W (2))
Delmarva (Box) - Clayton Schrader, LHP (2 IP, O H, O R, 0 BB, 4 SO)

Three Morning Links

MASN's Roch Kubatko recaps Alfredo Simon's third start at AA Bowie.

Matt Vensil at the Baltimore Sun writes the legal troubles for the Dominican lefty are far from over, and Baltimore will have to make some related roster moves in the near future.

Orioles Hangout's Chris Stoner had some draft questions for MLB.com's prospect/draft writer Jonathan Mayo.

Up Next

Zach Britton (3.83 xFIP, 164 ERA+) pushes back a day and laces them up against the Yanks. He'll be opposed by Bartolo Colon (3.05 xFIP, 108 ERA+) and the second most productive offense in the American League (5.02 runs per game).

2011 Depot Draft Preview - Finding 1:4 (Jed Bradley)

We continue our annual look at amateur talents the Baltimore Orioles could (should) be targeting in the 1st Round and beyond. Over the next two weeks we will bear down on the eight potential 1st Round targets listed below, followed by a week dedicated to the 2nd - 5th Rounds and finally the 6th - 10th Rounds. As a reminder, the draft coverage here will focus on Baltimore. More in-depth coverage, including rankings, scouting reports, videos and more can be found over at http://www.diamondscapescouting.com/.

Potential targets at 1:4

Anthony Rendon / 3b / Rice Univ.
Gerrit Cole / rhp / UCLA
Bubba Starling / of/rhp / Gardner Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Sonny Gray / rhp / Vanderbilt Univ.
Danny Hultzen / lhp / Univ. of Virginia
Dylan Bundy / rhp / Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.)
Taylor Jungmann / rhp / Univ. of Texas
Jed Bradley / lhp / Georgia Tech

*Every player discussed in the Depot Draft Preview has been scouted by Nick J. Faleris, either through his efforts at DiamondScape Scouting or as part of his duties as an Associate Scout in the Midwest Region for a National League organization.

Jed Bradley (lhp, Georgia Tech)
Ht/Wt: 6-4/224
B/T: L/L
Year: Junior
Age at Draft: 21y0m
Games Scouted: 1 (in person); 2 (video)

Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 55/60 (60/65)
Fastball: 55/60 (60/65)
Slider: 45/50 (55/60)
Change: 50 (60)
Control: 50 (60)
Command: 45/50 (60)
Feel: 45/50 (60)
Overall Future Potential: 59/61

*Notes on Grades: The Scouting Scale works from 20-80, with 50 being Major League Average. The scale operates loosely on a bell curve, so the further you move from 50 the fewer grades you'll find among ML players (e.g. Aroldis Chapman's fastball, Ichiro Suzuki's arm strength, Adam Dunn's power and Albert Pujols' hit tool would all be 80 grade). A 60 grade is sometimes referred to as plus and a 70 grade is sometimes referred to as plus-plus.

Physical Description:
Wide frame, solid strength with room for more; could add inches, as well. Strength in legs/core with room for more. Very good body control, fields position well.

Motion:
Bradley has some of the cleanest mechanics of the top tier college arms in this draft class. Throwing out of a true three-quarters slot, Bradley has a free and easy arm action with good tempo. There is deception in his ability to shield the ball with his wide frame and clean, medium arm circle. There is solid drive in his strong lower-half and almost no recoil in his finish. The lone clean-up area might be the release in his secondaries -- while he hits the same arm slot with all three offerings he can lose his release point on the slider and change. Everything in his motion is so repeatable and effortless, however, this is an issue that should resolve upon pro instruction and reps.

Stuff:
Fastball - Bradley's most frequently used fastball is a 2-seamer with late boring action to the armside. He routinely sits 90-92 mph with an ability to push up to 94/95 mph with regularity. Additionally, he'll throw the 2-seamer with some cutting action, giving hitters another look and making it highly difficult to square the ball on the barrel even when the hitter can identify a fastball. At his best, he fills-up the strikezone with the pitch, and college hitters have had such trouble with it he can go through stints where he throws it almost exclusively.

Slider - Bradley's slide-piece is probably his third best offering right now, generally in the 79-81 mph range and capable of hard late sweeping action. Slapping a grade on the pitch is tricky, as it showed above-average, flashing plus, earlier in the season, but was decidedly fringy in his recent start at UIC. As noted above, he can coast at times off the strength of his fastball, which may have stunted the growth of his slider simply because he doesn't necessarily need to throw it much.

Change-up - As with the slider, Bradley is often in a position where he can break-out the 78-80 mph offspeed as a "show me" pitch while relying on the fastball to earn the outs. He turns over the change well, creating fade and dive on a trajectory reminiscent of his boring 2-seam fastball. It's an above-average pitch right now at its best, and could be a true plus offering as he learns to better implement it at the next level.

Discussion:
Bradley is one of the top arms in the draft class and offers a not-often-found combination of "now" production and projection. The lefty gives you a plus fastball two-ways, two potential above-average to plus secondaries, a simple and repeatable low-impact motion and some projection to boot. He has some of the less refined secondaries among the top tier arms, but should see a nice bump in stuff across the board once he gets into a pro system and is tasked with focusing on better executing the slider and change. He has yet to allow a homerun in 81.1 IP, and while his SO/BB ratio could be stronger he produced a highly impressive 44 strikeouts to just 6 walks last summer on the Cape. There's little to dislike, provided you believe in the motion and arm being too clean not to lead to some tightening up of the secondaries. He's an arm worthy of top 5 consideration and should certainly be in the mix for a number of teams drafting in the top 10.

Projected position: #2 starter on tier one team
Suggested draft slot: Top ten overall

Video:





This scouting report originally published by the author here.

2011 Depot Draft Preview - Finding 1:4 (Derek "Bubba" Starling)

We continue our annual look at amateur talents the Baltimore Orioles could (should) be targeting in the 1st Round and beyond. Over the next two weeks we will bear down on the eight potential 1st Round targets listed below, followed by a week dedicated to the 2nd - 5th Rounds and finally the 6th - 10th Rounds. As a reminder, the draft coverage here will focus on Baltimore. More in-depth coverage, including rankings, scouting reports, videos and more can be found over at http://www.diamondscapescouting.com/.

Potential targets at 1:4

Anthony Rendon / 3b / Rice Univ.
Gerrit Cole / rhp / UCLA
Bubba Starling / of/rhp / Gardner Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Sonny Gray / rhp / Vanderbilt Univ.
Danny Hultzen / lhp / Univ. of Virginia
Dylan Bundy / rhp / Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.)
Taylor Jungmann / rhp / Univ. of Texas
Jed Bradley / lhp / Georgia Tech

*Every player discussed in the Depot Draft Preview has been scouted by Nick J. Faleris, either through his efforts at DiamondScape Scouting or as part of his duties as an Associate Scout in the Midwest Region for a National League organization.

Derek "Bubba" Starling (of, Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.)
Ht/Wt: 6-4/185
B/T: R/R
Year: Senior
Age at Draft: 18y10m
Games Scouted: 5 (in person); 2 (video)

Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 25/30 (55/60)
Power: 30 (55/60)
Arm: 55/60 (60/65)
Defense: 40 (60/65)
Speed: 70/75 (65/70)
Feel: 40 (60)
Overall Future Potential: 60/61

*Notes on Grades: The Scouting Scale works from 20-80, with 50 being Major League Average. The scale operates loosely on a bell curve, so the further you move from 50 the fewer grades you'll find among ML players (e.g. Aroldis Chapman's fastball, Ichiro Suzuki's arm strength, Adam Dunn's power and Albert Pujols' hit tool would all be 80 grade). A 60 grade is sometimes referred to as plus and a 70 grade is sometimes referred to as plus-plus.

Physical Description:
Strong, athletic build. Broad shoulders tapered to medium hips. Strong core with medium high waist. Elite athlete with body control, speed, agility and acceleration all well above average. Frame has potential to house a fair amount of additional strength.

Defense:
Starling is a work-in-progress in the outfield, still tentative in his first step and raw in his lines. At the same time, he closes on balls in the air very well and shows an impressive ability to track, even if his initial lines create some extra ground to cover. The arm-strength is evident and should ultimately play as plus in-game. Right now, he cuts his arm circle short and throws too often from the ear, limiting his carry and on occasion his accuracy. Starling could profile in center or right field, with his ultimate size and range being the likely determinant.

Bat:
The most surprising aspect of Starling's game is how effective he is at getting the barrel of the bat to the ball, considering the limited amount of time he has spent on the diamond compared to his contemporaries. Belying his "raw" label, hard contact was the norm in Long Beach during the Area Code Games, including a deep drive to pull and an opposite field rocket hit just shy of the track out in right-center (following Tilson's homerun). The hand/eye coordination and bat speed will give him a chance to hit for average, and as he cleans-up his load and weight transfer some he could grow into legit plus power. It is a true "sky is the limit" offensive profile that could be developed quickly once the Kansas prepster is focused on baseball.

On the Mound:
Starling spent time last summer on the mound, showing promise with low-90s velocity and solid spin on a 12/6 curveball, all in spite of unrefined mechanics and little formal coaching on the pitching side. He neglected to pursue pitching this spring and is at this point should be considered an outfielder, exclusively. The same, he showed enough foundation and feel on the hill that a drafting organization can feel more than comfortable that should the worst happen, developmentally, on the offensive side for Starling, he has a nice potential fallback as an arm.

Discussion:
Starling has the potential to develop into a truly elite talent in every respect. He is the class' best athlete, and while he has not devoted his attention to baseball yet he is far from an "athlete first"-type of player. The most encouraging aspect of his performance last summer was not the jaw-dropping SPARQ testing, impressive in-game displays, or even the mature approach considering his experience. Rather, what sets Starling apart is the strides he was able to make between June and August, and the ferocity with which he was able to devour instruction, digest it and apply it to his game. His swing, still in need of fine-tuning at the Area Code Games, was cleaner than it showed at the Tournament of Stars a little over a month earlier -- particularly in his weight transfer. He circled the ball better in the outfield and showed more confidence in his actions at the plate after logging dozens of plate appearances throughout the summer months against the country's (and in some cases, the world's) top high school/18U talent. There is, of course, risk in committing a large sum of money to a high school player with unrefined skills. If ever there is a time to do it, however, it's when you come across an unrefined talent that displays elite athleticism, a knack for picking-up instruction and the competitive drive to push until he masters something -- that's exactly what you have in Bubba. For organizations adept at molding young talent, Starling is as promising a ball of clay as you are going to find.

Projected position: Above-average to elite center/right fielder on 1st division team
Suggested draft slot: Top 10 overall

Video:







































This scouting report originally published by the author here.

Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 17, 2011

Baltimore 7, Boston 8
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap

Chris Tillman was not crisp, but he got the job done through five innings and exited with a 6-0 lead. That lead evaporated at the hands of the Orioles pen, with six different arms throwing and only Koji Uehara and Clay Rapada neglecting to allow a run. Closer Kevin Gregg managed to record one out in the ninth before issuing back-to-back walks to Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia and giving up a walk-off double to the red hot Adrian Gonzalez. It was an ugly loss on a night where Baltimore seemed all but assured of a third straight victory over a divisional rival and a .500 record through 40 games. Instead, the Birds drop to 19-21 and fall to 4.5 games out of 1st and 1.5 games out of 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

Stat(s) of the game

$22 million; $32 million

That's the amount of guaranteed money and potential money (including escalators and vesting options) that Andy MacPhail and the Baltimore front office has invested in closers Mike Gonzalez and Kevin Gregg. Through about 1.5 of their cumulative contracted four years (entering tonight's game), the two have been worth a total of .8 wins according to baseball-reference.com, or approximately $3.6 million. Now, let's all remember that Baltimore also gave up a second round pick for the privilege of inking MGon. It's a good thing the organization isn't throwing money away in Latin America -- it's clearly much more wisely invested domestically.

Orioles Game ball

Vlad Guerrero (3-5, 2 2B (9))

MiLB game balls

Norfolk (Box) - Brendan Harris, SS (2-4, 2B (8), 3B (1), 2 RBI (13))
Bowie (No Game) - N/A
Frederick (Box) - Buck Britton, SS/2B (2-4, 2 RBI (24))
Delmarva (Box) - Tyler Kelly, 3B (2-4, 2B (3))

Three Morning Links - Draft Edition

MASN's Roch Kubatko reports that Chris Tillman left last night's start with some tightness in his back.

Yesterday our links led to a story profiling potential draft target Owasso (Okla.) HS right-handed pitcher Dylan Bundy. Today, Jim Callis of Baseball America tells us that Bundy's supposed asking price is astronomical.

Orioles Hangout's Adam Vencill contributes to the Baltimore Sun staff report on Brian Matusz's return to A-Adv. Frederick for his first rehab start.

Up Next

Baltimore's young lefty RoY candidate Zach Britton (3.83 xFIP, 164 ERA+) takes the hill with a chance to salvage a two-game split. The Red Sox counter with the ageless Tim Wakefield (5.12 xFIP, 77 ERA+) who will make his 443rd career start and his 36th against the O's.

Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 7

The Orioles are quite the streaky team this year.  The last week has seen the Orioles sweep the Mariners in a three game set and going two and one against the Rays.  All three projection systems are still in line with each other, which is quite impressive to me.  Eventually, I expect a shift to occur.  I do not use the same system as PECOTA or runs given/earned.

Remember when thinking about playoffs, we are talking about somewhere around 92 wins.  The Orioles are currently far off that pace.  PECOTA puts the Orioles as having a 5% chance of hitting that.  My system has them at 1.3%.

2011 First Round Talents in MLB Draft: Composite Rankings (May 14, 2011)

I had meant to send this out a few days ago, but the Blogspot issues prevented that and I then just forgot.  Remembering now to do so, here is the updated composite rankings of the top 33 prospects in this year's draft.  I am showing 33 prospects because that is how many selections are in the first round this year.  These rankings are composites from three well respected sources: Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, and DiamondScape Scouting's Nick Faleris (who also writes for Camden Depot).  Baseball America's contribution comes from their mid-season evaluations on April 12th.  Keith Law's was published on May 4th.  Nick Faleris' was from May 12th.  The bar represents the average ranking with the whisker illustrating the standard deviation.  I have been asked instead to do a median with two whiskers showing the highest and lowest ranking for each player.  However, I am averse to doing that because as far as I know, some of the rankings are proprietary and a reasonably inquisitive mind could figure out who ranked who where.

There seems to be growing speculation that Anthony Rendon, Garrit Cole, and Danny Hultzen will be the first three taken in some order.  The wild card of those three to drop would be Cole.  That would be the ideal situation for the Orioles.  In that scenario, Rendon would go first with the Mariners going after a bat and the Diamondbacks taking Hultzen.  I doubt that happens.  Assuming those three do go first, it has been said that the Orioles are looking for college pitchers of which there are many.  Jed Bradley and Trevor Bauer are the names mentioned most with Dylan Bundy, Bobby Bundy's brother, as the dark horse.  I would personally prefer Sonny Gray or Bubba Starling.

Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 16, 2011

Baltimore 9, Tampa 3
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap

Jake Arrieta came out and dealt again, leading the Orioles to a 9-3 win over the division-leading Rays and earning a 2-1 series win on the road. The second year starter went six strong allowing two runs on four hits and three walks, while strikign out seven. Pegged as a back-end starter by a number of national "prospectors", Arrieta is doing his best to show he still has a shot to be a legit #3 off the strength of his fastball, breaking balls and improving control. J.J. Hardy delivered the knockout blow in the sixth inning, taking a Cesar Ramos offering and depositing it into the left field stands. Matt Wieters had a day, throwing out the only would-be base stealer (ho hum) while going 3-4 at the plate with a walk. Nick Markakis, Vlad Guerrero and Brian Roberts also chipped in with multi-hit games.

Stat(s) of the game

9-3; .325/.386/.550

That is the Orioles record with J.J. Hardy in the line-up, and Hardy's triple-slash over his first 45 PA. Obviously it's way too early to draw any conclusions, but suffice it to say things look a little brighter than they did in 2010 when the shortstops in Baltimore combined for a triple-slash of .236/.277/.272.

Orioles Game ball

Jake Arrieta (6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 SO, W (5))

MiLB game balls

Norfolk (Box) - Brendan Harris, SS (1-4, 2 RBI (11), GW RBI)
Bowie (Box) - Caleb Joseph, DH (1-3, BB)
Frederick (Box) - Bobby Bundy, RHP (6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, W (4))
Delmarva (Box) - Mychal Givens (2-5, 2 2B (4))

Three Morning Links - Draft Edition

Roch Kubatko talks Brian Matusz's rehab start in Frederick tonight and the effect his return might have on the Baltimore rotation.

Bill Haisten of Tulsa World takes a look at Dylan Bundy (rhp, Owasso HS, Owasso, Okla.), potential 1st Rd draft target in June and brother of O's standout prospect Bobby Bundy (rhp, A-Adv. Frederick).

Early AL RoY candidates Zach Britton (lhp, Baltimore) and Michael Pineda (rhp, Seattle) are "emerging stars", writes MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince.

Up Next

Chris Tillman (4.48 xFIP, 65 ERA+) will attempt to maintain the momentum in the series opener against Daisuke Matsuzaka (5.12 xFIP, 89 ERA+) and the Boston Red Sox. Start time 7:10 Eastern at Fenway Park.

Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 15, 2011

Baltimore 6, Tampa 0
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap

Baltimore climbed back in the win column off the strength of Brad Bergesen's best start of the year. Bergie went the distance, using just 105 pitches and facing just five over the minimum while shutting-out the divisional leaders. His two-seamer was at its best, and the Rays hitters struggled all day to square-up the pitch. Offensively, the O's got all they needed in the first when Vlad Guerrero doubled home Derek Lee with two outs. Adding some cushion in the mid-innings were Jake Fox and Mark Reynolds, who found the left and right field stands, respectively, prompting me to immediately switch to the weather channel to confirm my suspicions. In all seriousness, it was an enjoyable game and the Birds put together nine solid innings of baseball.

Stat of the game

23.1%

That's Adam Jones's linedrive percentage through the first two weeks of May. He was 2-4 in Saturday's action, including a walk and his sixth double of the year, raising his triple-slash line to .285/.331/.453 on the year.

Orioles Game ball

Bradley Bergesen (9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, W (1))

MiLB game balls

Norfolk (Box) - Ryan Adams, 2b (1-3, 2B (9), 2 BB)
Bowie (Box) - Ronnie Welty, RF (2-4, HR (7))
Frederick (Box) - Tyler Kolodny, DH (1-4, 2B (9))
Delmarva (Box) - Jonathan Schoop (2-4, 3B (3), HR (5))

Three Morning Links - Draft Edition

DiamondScape Scouting thinks Baltimore should take Dylan Bundy (Owasso HS, Owasso, Okla.) in the first round of next month's draft.

Baseball America projects Jed Bradley (rhp, Georgia Tech) to be Baltimore's pick at 1:4.

Keith Law weighs-in, claiming Trevor Bauer (rhp, UCLA) lands with the Birds (ESPN Insider content).

Up Next

Jake Arrieta (3.81 xFIP, 96 ERA+) takes the hill for Baltimore in the rubber match against Tampa and Andy Sonnanstine (5.06 xFIP, 132 ERA+).