Baltimore 2, Tampa Bay 6
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap
Baltimore fell last night to the Rays in the first Friday home game of the season in front of 20,694 purchased tickets and slightly less in attendance. The game immediately became a struggled after Zach Britton gave up three runs on two hard hit balls (a double to BJ Upton and a home run to Brandon Guyer). In the Orioles first 31 games, 16 have ended with them scoring three or fewer runs. This club has been largely producing with a low on base average (.296, 13th in AL) and poor contact (.236, 10th in AL). An offense this enemic needs a strong defense. The Orioles' is rather average (-3 DRS, -0.3 UZR). The team is also dependent on a bullpen that has also been unimpressive (5.58 FIP, last in AL by 0.72). Returning from that aside, Britton calmed down outside of that inning, but was forced out in the sixth inning due to fatigue. The Orioles were able to put a couple runs up on the board and the pen gave up three more. The hope that Britton gives everyone with each of his starts was not rewarded today and Jeremy Guthrie comes to the mound tonight to avoid a three game slide.
Stat of the game
7 out of 21
That's is how well Zach Britton did with managing first pitch strikes. Britton often was pitching behind the count while not hit his spots cleanly. This forced him into deeper counts and being lifted only one out into the sixth inning.
Orioles Game ball
Derrek Lee (1-3, home run, BB)
MiLB game balls
Norfolk (Box) - Nolan Reimold, LF (2-4, HR (4), BB)
Bowie (Box) - Ronnie Welty, RF (3-4, HR (4), 2B (3), BB)
Frederick (Box) - Kenny Moreland, RP (3 IP, 1 H, 2 SO)
Delmarva (Box) - Clayton Schrader (3.1 IP, 1 H, 6 SO, 1 BB).
Three Morning Links
MASN's Roch Kubatko provided an update on Manny Machado and his dislocation.
David Zurawik at the Baltimore Sun reports that MASN ratings have increased so far compared to last year.
Steve Slowinski mentions how one may view small sample size and what it means for this season. Vladimir Guerrero swing rate on first pitches makes an appearance..
Up Next
The O's are in the middle of a three game set with Tampa holding a tenuous 0.5 game lead of fourth place over the Boston Red Sox. Jeremy Guthrie (4.24 xFIP, 132 ERA+) will attempt to get Baltimore back on track against a red hot Jeremy Hekkickson (4.39 xFIP, 86 ERA+). 1:10 pm Eastern start.
07 May 2011
06 May 2011
Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 6, 2011
Baltimore 1, Kansas City 9
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap
Baltimore dropped its first Friday home game of the season against the Rays the third game of the KC series, ending their brief Midwest Swang with a 4-3 record. Chris Tillman was not as bad as his line (3.2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO), but once again he was unable to work through some tough luck hits. I've seen most of Chris's starts this year and am not overly concerned. Are there things to work on? Obviously. But learning to make adjustments at the Major League level is an absolute necessity if a player is to stick, long term, as a contributing piece. Chris is in the difficult position of having to learn what works for him while adjusting to new mechanics and resulting inconsistencies in his stuff. I think he gets there, but there are going to be bumps. Back to the game, the lone bright spot is that Nick Markakis continues to swing it, finishing the road trip 8-30 with a double and a homerun and raising his batting average on the season 21-points. What started out as a feel good trip ends on a sour note, and Baltimore will look to Zach Britton to right the ship against an improving Tampa squad.
Stat of the game
4, 1-3, 0-4 (0%), 32
That's the number of games that Jake Fox has started at catcher, Baltimore's record in those games, the percent of runners Fox has thrown out attempting to steal, and the number of runs Baltimore has allowed in those four games. Small sample size...right?
Orioles Game ball
Nick Markakis (2-4)
MiLB game balls
Norfolk (Box) - Ryan Adams, 2b/3b (2-3, 2B (5), BB)
Bowie (Box) - Brandon Waring, dh (2-4, HR (3), 2B (5), BB)
Frederick (Box) - Tyler Townsend, 1b (2-4, HR (5), 3 RBI (21))
Delmarva (Box) - Kipp Shutz (2-4, RBI (21))
Note: Baltimore's top prospect, Manny Machado (ss, A Delmarva) left the game after crumbling between 2nd and 3rd base. There was swelling in his knee and he is scheduled for an MRI today.
Three Morning Links
MASN's Steve Melewsky provided an update this morning on Manny Machado and his knee.
Luke Scott is heading to the doc's office for an MRI on his sore shoulder, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Sun.
Dan Connolly of the Sun catches us up on Alfredo Simon's first start of the season since being implicated in a shooting in the Dominican Republic this winter.
Up Next
The O's open a three game set with Tampa tonight. Zach Britton (4.14 xFIP, 152 ERA+) will attempt to get Baltimore back on track against a red hot James Shields (3.12 xFIP, 173 ERA+). 7:05 pm Eastern start.
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap
Baltimore dropped its first Friday home game of the season against the Rays the third game of the KC series, ending their brief Midwest Swang with a 4-3 record. Chris Tillman was not as bad as his line (3.2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO), but once again he was unable to work through some tough luck hits. I've seen most of Chris's starts this year and am not overly concerned. Are there things to work on? Obviously. But learning to make adjustments at the Major League level is an absolute necessity if a player is to stick, long term, as a contributing piece. Chris is in the difficult position of having to learn what works for him while adjusting to new mechanics and resulting inconsistencies in his stuff. I think he gets there, but there are going to be bumps. Back to the game, the lone bright spot is that Nick Markakis continues to swing it, finishing the road trip 8-30 with a double and a homerun and raising his batting average on the season 21-points. What started out as a feel good trip ends on a sour note, and Baltimore will look to Zach Britton to right the ship against an improving Tampa squad.
Stat of the game
4, 1-3, 0-4 (0%), 32
That's the number of games that Jake Fox has started at catcher, Baltimore's record in those games, the percent of runners Fox has thrown out attempting to steal, and the number of runs Baltimore has allowed in those four games. Small sample size...right?
Orioles Game ball
Nick Markakis (2-4)
MiLB game balls
Norfolk (Box) - Ryan Adams, 2b/3b (2-3, 2B (5), BB)
Bowie (Box) - Brandon Waring, dh (2-4, HR (3), 2B (5), BB)
Frederick (Box) - Tyler Townsend, 1b (2-4, HR (5), 3 RBI (21))
Delmarva (Box) - Kipp Shutz (2-4, RBI (21))
Note: Baltimore's top prospect, Manny Machado (ss, A Delmarva) left the game after crumbling between 2nd and 3rd base. There was swelling in his knee and he is scheduled for an MRI today.
Three Morning Links
MASN's Steve Melewsky provided an update this morning on Manny Machado and his knee.
Luke Scott is heading to the doc's office for an MRI on his sore shoulder, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Sun.
Dan Connolly of the Sun catches us up on Alfredo Simon's first start of the season since being implicated in a shooting in the Dominican Republic this winter.
Up Next
The O's open a three game set with Tampa tonight. Zach Britton (4.14 xFIP, 152 ERA+) will attempt to get Baltimore back on track against a red hot James Shields (3.12 xFIP, 173 ERA+). 7:05 pm Eastern start.
05 May 2011
Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 5
Baltimore 3, Kansas City 2
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap
Jake Arrieta, despite struggling through a 35 pitch 2nd inning, gave the O's a much needed seven-inning start, earning the win and posting an impressive game line of 7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, and 8 SO. The young righty continues to show solid velocity to go with an improving ability to sequence (hat tip to Wieters, as well) and more consistent execution of his fastball and each of his breaking balls. Markakis drove in two, including a solo homerun in the 7th (his third on the year), and Adam Jones may have saved the game when he alertly threw up his hands to signal a Mike Aviles drive to the gap had wedged under the padding of the outfield wall, saving a run and keeping Aviles at second (he would be stranded at third to end the inning).
Stat of the game
Mark Reynolds: 3-3, BB, 0 SO
A perfect three hit game for the struggling third baseman, a walk and no strikeout? Worth noting and celebrating for the short term. Here's hoping we will start to see the light tower power manifest in-game soon, and often.
Orioles Game ball
Jake Arrieta (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 SO, W (4))
MiLB game balls
Norfolk - No game
Bowie (Box) - Robbie Widlanski, dh (2-4, 2b (9))
Frederick (Box) - L.J. Hoes, 2b/of (5-5, 2b (5))
Delmarva - No game
Three Morning Links
Jeff Zrebiec reports J.J. Hardy is set to begin his rehab stint at AAA Norfolk.
Jon Star (mlb.com) previews this afternoon's rubber match in Kansas City.
Shameless plug: Check out DiamondScape Scouting's midseason top 100 draft prospects, including five mini "player spotlight" scouting reports.
Game three of the series takes place this afternoon (Fox will be behind the plate). Chris Tillman (4.48 xFIP, 77 ERA+) faces-off against former Oriole Bruce Chen (4.70 xFIP, 98 ERA+). 2:10 pm Eastern start.
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap
Jake Arrieta, despite struggling through a 35 pitch 2nd inning, gave the O's a much needed seven-inning start, earning the win and posting an impressive game line of 7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, and 8 SO. The young righty continues to show solid velocity to go with an improving ability to sequence (hat tip to Wieters, as well) and more consistent execution of his fastball and each of his breaking balls. Markakis drove in two, including a solo homerun in the 7th (his third on the year), and Adam Jones may have saved the game when he alertly threw up his hands to signal a Mike Aviles drive to the gap had wedged under the padding of the outfield wall, saving a run and keeping Aviles at second (he would be stranded at third to end the inning).
Stat of the game
Mark Reynolds: 3-3, BB, 0 SO
A perfect three hit game for the struggling third baseman, a walk and no strikeout? Worth noting and celebrating for the short term. Here's hoping we will start to see the light tower power manifest in-game soon, and often.
Orioles Game ball
Jake Arrieta (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 SO, W (4))
MiLB game balls
Norfolk - No game
Bowie (Box) - Robbie Widlanski, dh (2-4, 2b (9))
Frederick (Box) - L.J. Hoes, 2b/of (5-5, 2b (5))
Delmarva - No game
Three Morning Links
Jeff Zrebiec reports J.J. Hardy is set to begin his rehab stint at AAA Norfolk.
Jon Star (mlb.com) previews this afternoon's rubber match in Kansas City.
Shameless plug: Check out DiamondScape Scouting's midseason top 100 draft prospects, including five mini "player spotlight" scouting reports.
Game three of the series takes place this afternoon (Fox will be behind the plate). Chris Tillman (4.48 xFIP, 77 ERA+) faces-off against former Oriole Bruce Chen (4.70 xFIP, 98 ERA+). 2:10 pm Eastern start.
04 May 2011
Collegiate Diamonds by the Numbers: Pac10, Big 12, Conference USA, and Big East
Here are links to the first two columns:
Introduction and ACC
SEC
This post will roll through four different conferences as very few players met this criteria. The Pac10 in fact are not represented. This is not to say there are no prospects in the Pac10. It says that merely following the criteria is set forth would not identify anyone in this grouping. I want to remind you that I am using adjusted numbers from College Baseball Splits and not raw numbers. This post will highlight players who match these criteria in the SEC.
Criteria
Plate Discipline - Walk Rate (>15%) and BB:K ratio (>1.50)
Contact Rate - Batting Average (>.300)
Power - ISO (>.180)
Big 12
Just a Freshman
Erich Weiss, 2B/3B, Texas
397/529/616; 20.2% walk rate, 1.68 BB:K, .219 ISO
It does not appear Erich Weiss was drafted last year, but he has broken out as a freshman for the Longhorns. In high school, Weiss saw time at SS, 2B, and C. In college, he has been handed the job at the hot corner. So far he has performed well as a freshman and will have a couple more years before he is draft eligible (2013). At 6'3" and 180, Weiss is athletic, but I can imagine him adding on another 15-20 pounds as he matures.
Conference USA
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
364/570/573; 32%, 3.01 BB:K, .209 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: Best 3B, Best Overall
I'll let Nick Faleris tell you about him (click here for a full scouting report):
Big East
Joe Panik, MIF, St. John's
397/513/609; 17% walk rate, 2.29 BB:K, .212 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: 3rd 2B, 2nd SS, 44th overall (pre-season)
Panik was largely overlooked by most of the national talent writers with Faleris being the only one to put him in a top 50. However, he is not an unknown. Scouting the Sally reviewed Panik last month and wrote:
Close, but not quite
David Chester, 1B, Pittsburgh
293/422/527; 16.2% walk rate, 1.61 BB:K, .234 ISO
Not ranked by DSS, Keith Law, or Baseball America
Although not ranked by Nick Faleris, Chester was on Nick's Big East Second Team ratings before the season began. He was .007 points shy of batting average to qualify for this list. For a big guy (6'5" 270 lbs), he does a good job making contact with power and earning walks. Large batters anecdotally seem like a risk as the larger the batter, the larger the strike zone he must work with. As a Senior, Chester does not have any leverage. He will likely be taken as an easy slot or below slot signing after past the first five rounds.
Passing Thoughts
The members of this club I have put together are relatively few, but the criteria I have set forth does appear to be hitting on certain ball players who are widely accepted as good college prospects. This criteria does not replace eyes and stop watches, but it is remarkable how it is finding players who are known and others that are on the fringe.
Introduction and ACC
SEC
This post will roll through four different conferences as very few players met this criteria. The Pac10 in fact are not represented. This is not to say there are no prospects in the Pac10. It says that merely following the criteria is set forth would not identify anyone in this grouping. I want to remind you that I am using adjusted numbers from College Baseball Splits and not raw numbers. This post will highlight players who match these criteria in the SEC.
Criteria
Plate Discipline - Walk Rate (>15%) and BB:K ratio (>1.50)
Contact Rate - Batting Average (>.300)
Power - ISO (>.180)
 |
| citation |
Just a Freshman
Erich Weiss, 2B/3B, Texas
397/529/616; 20.2% walk rate, 1.68 BB:K, .219 ISO
It does not appear Erich Weiss was drafted last year, but he has broken out as a freshman for the Longhorns. In high school, Weiss saw time at SS, 2B, and C. In college, he has been handed the job at the hot corner. So far he has performed well as a freshman and will have a couple more years before he is draft eligible (2013). At 6'3" and 180, Weiss is athletic, but I can imagine him adding on another 15-20 pounds as he matures.
Conference USA
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
364/570/573; 32%, 3.01 BB:K, .209 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: Best 3B, Best Overall
I'll let Nick Faleris tell you about him (click here for a full scouting report):
The story this spring has been a sore shoulder for the five-tool third baseman, which has kept him in the DH role for most of the season. Perhaps stemming from the sore shoulder, Rendon's power numbers have fallen off drastically, with his isolated power dropping from a whopping .407 to a merely impressive .178. Barring troublesome medical reports come draft time, there is little concern that this will have a long term effect on Rendon's game. Provide the shoulder checks-out, he is easily the top position player in the draft class, arguably the top player overall, and on par with the likes of Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg in terms of future potential and draft time skill set. Rendon is the rare five-tool talent with game changing ability in each category (he was clocked at 4.2 seconds home-to-first a number of times last year, during the USA CNT Trials and twice this spring), and an intricate feel for the game on defense, in the batters box and on the basepaths. He has a chance to move quickly once he signs and could be a perennial All-Star at the Major League level.
Big East
Joe Panik, MIF, St. John's
397/513/609; 17% walk rate, 2.29 BB:K, .212 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: 3rd 2B, 2nd SS, 44th overall (pre-season)
Panik was largely overlooked by most of the national talent writers with Faleris being the only one to put him in a top 50. However, he is not an unknown. Scouting the Sally reviewed Panik last month and wrote:
It would be highly doubtful that Panik is available when the Orioles pick in the second round.
- Compact build; Looked closer to 6-foot than the 6-2 he is listed as
- Well developed through hips and shoulders; Room for additional growth?
- Above average speed; Pulled multiple 4.15 times from home-to-first
- Short, compact stroke; Drops bat head on the baseball
- Gap hitter; Present swing mechanics tailor-made for spraying line drives
- Patient hitter; Took a number of borderline pitches
- Questionable power projection; Should push double-digits, but not much more
Close, but not quite
David Chester, 1B, Pittsburgh
293/422/527; 16.2% walk rate, 1.61 BB:K, .234 ISO
Not ranked by DSS, Keith Law, or Baseball America
Although not ranked by Nick Faleris, Chester was on Nick's Big East Second Team ratings before the season began. He was .007 points shy of batting average to qualify for this list. For a big guy (6'5" 270 lbs), he does a good job making contact with power and earning walks. Large batters anecdotally seem like a risk as the larger the batter, the larger the strike zone he must work with. As a Senior, Chester does not have any leverage. He will likely be taken as an easy slot or below slot signing after past the first five rounds.
Passing Thoughts
The members of this club I have put together are relatively few, but the criteria I have set forth does appear to be hitting on certain ball players who are widely accepted as good college prospects. This criteria does not replace eyes and stop watches, but it is remarkable how it is finding players who are known and others that are on the fringe.
Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 4, 2011
Baltimore 5, Kansas City 6
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap
Jeff Francoeur knotted the game at 5-5 in the bottom of sixth with his seventh homerun of the year. Four innings later he broke that tie with a sacrifice fly to medium right field, plating the winning run in the form of Alex Gordon. The loss was Baltimore's second in as many days, dropping their record to 2-2 on this brief Midwest road trip. Jason Berken took the loss and looked pedestrian for the fourth straight appearance. Over that span, Berken's line is a not-so-pretty 3.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 4 BB and 2 SO. The positive? Matt Wieters continues to look more and more comfortable at the plate, with his timing issues from earlier this season appearing to drift further and further into his rearview mirror. He also threw out another baserunner attempting to swipe second -- at some point you have to think teams will simply stop trying, yeah? Adam Jones put together a couple of solid at bats and notch three singles and a walk in five plate appearances.
Stat of the game
KC Pen: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 SO
After starter Jeff Francis spotted Baltimore five runs over five and two-thirds innings, the Royals pen dropped the hammer. After losing the lead in the bottom of the sixth, the Orioles never threatened again, with all four hits thereafter singles and none of those runners reaching second. Owner of the top farm system in the game by a wide margin, the Royals have a nice little pen taking shape on the Big Club. The Royals will be in an interesting position later this summer as they will have to decide whether to hold onto shut-down closer Joakim Soria (club options through 2014 in the aggregate of $22.75 million) or move him for a sizable package of prospects. While the Royals have plenty of payroll room in 2012 and beyond, the ability to add one or two potential impact, cost controlled talents while shifting one of their high-ceiling prospect arms (Aaron Crow or Jeremy Jeffress) to work the 9th may be too tempting to pass-up.
Average age of the Royals relievers used last night: 23y9m.
Orioles Game ball
Luke Scott (2-5, HR (6), 3 RBI)
MiLB game balls
Norfolk (Box) - Michael Ballard, lhp (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, W (2))
Bowie (Box) - Steve Johnson, rhp (6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, ND)
Frederick (Box) - Ollie Drake, rhp (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 SO, W (2))
Delmarva (Box) - Jonathan Schoop, 2b/3b (2-4)
Three Morning Links
Roch Kubatko talks Derek Lee and Jake Arrieta in his latest School of Roch entry.
Peter Schmuck explores the dilemma facing a weary fan base -- do we buy into Buck's Birds in 2011 or is this summer just more of the same?
The Eutaw Street Hooligans bring us a look at Mark Reynolds and his propensity to K in part 1 of a 2 part series, courtesy of Jjaks Clayton.
Game two of the series will pit young power arm Jake Arrieta (4.20 xFIP, 82 ERA+) against Kansas City's Kyle Davies (4.34 xFIP, 51 ERA+). 8:10 pm Eastern start.
Box Score / Play-By-Play / AP Recap
Jeff Francoeur knotted the game at 5-5 in the bottom of sixth with his seventh homerun of the year. Four innings later he broke that tie with a sacrifice fly to medium right field, plating the winning run in the form of Alex Gordon. The loss was Baltimore's second in as many days, dropping their record to 2-2 on this brief Midwest road trip. Jason Berken took the loss and looked pedestrian for the fourth straight appearance. Over that span, Berken's line is a not-so-pretty 3.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 4 BB and 2 SO. The positive? Matt Wieters continues to look more and more comfortable at the plate, with his timing issues from earlier this season appearing to drift further and further into his rearview mirror. He also threw out another baserunner attempting to swipe second -- at some point you have to think teams will simply stop trying, yeah? Adam Jones put together a couple of solid at bats and notch three singles and a walk in five plate appearances.
Stat of the game
KC Pen: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 SO
After starter Jeff Francis spotted Baltimore five runs over five and two-thirds innings, the Royals pen dropped the hammer. After losing the lead in the bottom of the sixth, the Orioles never threatened again, with all four hits thereafter singles and none of those runners reaching second. Owner of the top farm system in the game by a wide margin, the Royals have a nice little pen taking shape on the Big Club. The Royals will be in an interesting position later this summer as they will have to decide whether to hold onto shut-down closer Joakim Soria (club options through 2014 in the aggregate of $22.75 million) or move him for a sizable package of prospects. While the Royals have plenty of payroll room in 2012 and beyond, the ability to add one or two potential impact, cost controlled talents while shifting one of their high-ceiling prospect arms (Aaron Crow or Jeremy Jeffress) to work the 9th may be too tempting to pass-up.
Average age of the Royals relievers used last night: 23y9m.
Orioles Game ball
Luke Scott (2-5, HR (6), 3 RBI)
MiLB game balls
Norfolk (Box) - Michael Ballard, lhp (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, W (2))
Bowie (Box) - Steve Johnson, rhp (6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, ND)
Frederick (Box) - Ollie Drake, rhp (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 SO, W (2))
Delmarva (Box) - Jonathan Schoop, 2b/3b (2-4)
Three Morning Links
Roch Kubatko talks Derek Lee and Jake Arrieta in his latest School of Roch entry.
Peter Schmuck explores the dilemma facing a weary fan base -- do we buy into Buck's Birds in 2011 or is this summer just more of the same?
The Eutaw Street Hooligans bring us a look at Mark Reynolds and his propensity to K in part 1 of a 2 part series, courtesy of Jjaks Clayton.
Game two of the series will pit young power arm Jake Arrieta (4.20 xFIP, 82 ERA+) against Kansas City's Kyle Davies (4.34 xFIP, 51 ERA+). 8:10 pm Eastern start.
03 May 2011
Collegiate Diamonds by the Numbers: SEC
The previous installment focused on introducing my criteria and players that fit them in the ACC. Also, I want to remind you that I am using adjusted numbers from College Baseball Splits and not raw numbers. This post will highlight players who match these criteria in the SEC.
Criteria
Plate Discipline - Walk Rate (>15%) and BB:K ratio (>1.50)
Contact Rate - Batting Average (>.300)
Power - ISO (>.180)
Hitting All Four
Dan Gamache, INF, Auburn
363/462/562; 16% walk rate, 1.59 BB:K, .199 ISO
Not ranked by Diamond Scape Scouting, Keith Law, or Baseball America
Gamache is a Junior on the Auburn Tigers. He might be the first diamond in the rough as I was unaware of him and have not found a recent scouting report. He has shown an increase in power and plate discipline, but there is a question as to where exactly he will play as a pro. I cannot say much more than that. I look forward to Nick's thoughts in the comment section. As Oriole fans know with Trent Mummey, future power is difficult to measure in Auburn because it can be rather easy to hit home runs there.
Taylor Dugas, OF, Alabama
333/439/539; 16% walk rate, 2.07 BB:K, .206 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: Not Ranked for OF, 177th best overall (pre-season)
Dugas might be taken anywhere from the fourth to seventh rounds. He profiles as a speedy outfielder with good defensive skills. He has shown a good success rate in the past for stolen bases, but has been largely ineffective this year with seven steals and four times caught. His bat is also considered somewhat limited and there are questions if he can sustain a high level of doubles and a smattering of home runs at the next level. For Oriole fans, Matt Angle might be a decent comp, but I think Dugas' bat profiles a little better than Angle's.
Matt Duffy, 3B, Tennessee
328/434/522; 16% walk rate, 1.56 BB:K, .194 ISO
Not Ranked by Diamond Scape Scouting, Keith Law, or Baseball America
Matt Duffy was not selected last year and is now in his senior season. As yet, I have not found anyone releasing any scouting reports on him or ranking him. This season he has maintained his high level of defensive play at third (or so it seems) while he has drastically reduce his strikeouts, increased his walks, and may be showing a little more power. He may have some worth pas the eighth round for slot. I don't know who to compare him to.
Passing Thoughts
The first review of talent in the ACC gave me hope that this series would be largely validated by the work of talent scouts as represented by Diamond Scape Scouting and Baseball America. However, this collection of SEC talent is a bit unimpressive when compared to who these other groups are looking. It will be interesting to see how this somewhat arbitrarily derived criteria performs as these players move on to the pros.
Criteria
Plate Discipline - Walk Rate (>15%) and BB:K ratio (>1.50)
Contact Rate - Batting Average (>.300)
Power - ISO (>.180)
Hitting All Four
363/462/562; 16% walk rate, 1.59 BB:K, .199 ISO
Not ranked by Diamond Scape Scouting, Keith Law, or Baseball America
Gamache is a Junior on the Auburn Tigers. He might be the first diamond in the rough as I was unaware of him and have not found a recent scouting report. He has shown an increase in power and plate discipline, but there is a question as to where exactly he will play as a pro. I cannot say much more than that. I look forward to Nick's thoughts in the comment section. As Oriole fans know with Trent Mummey, future power is difficult to measure in Auburn because it can be rather easy to hit home runs there.
Taylor Dugas, OF, Alabama
333/439/539; 16% walk rate, 2.07 BB:K, .206 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: Not Ranked for OF, 177th best overall (pre-season)
Dugas might be taken anywhere from the fourth to seventh rounds. He profiles as a speedy outfielder with good defensive skills. He has shown a good success rate in the past for stolen bases, but has been largely ineffective this year with seven steals and four times caught. His bat is also considered somewhat limited and there are questions if he can sustain a high level of doubles and a smattering of home runs at the next level. For Oriole fans, Matt Angle might be a decent comp, but I think Dugas' bat profiles a little better than Angle's.
Matt Duffy, 3B, Tennessee
328/434/522; 16% walk rate, 1.56 BB:K, .194 ISO
Not Ranked by Diamond Scape Scouting, Keith Law, or Baseball America
Matt Duffy was not selected last year and is now in his senior season. As yet, I have not found anyone releasing any scouting reports on him or ranking him. This season he has maintained his high level of defensive play at third (or so it seems) while he has drastically reduce his strikeouts, increased his walks, and may be showing a little more power. He may have some worth pas the eighth round for slot. I don't know who to compare him to.
Passing Thoughts
The first review of talent in the ACC gave me hope that this series would be largely validated by the work of talent scouts as represented by Diamond Scape Scouting and Baseball America. However, this collection of SEC talent is a bit unimpressive when compared to who these other groups are looking. It will be interesting to see how this somewhat arbitrarily derived criteria performs as these players move on to the pros.
Game Wrap and Morning Links: May 3, 2011
Baltimore 2, Chicago (A) 6
Box Score Play-By-Play AP Game Recap
The Birds dropped the series finale to the White Sox, missing out on a chance for a sweep for the second straight series. Jeremy Guthre (L, 1-4) put together a solid start. The Orioles' Ace scattered five hits and two walks over seven innings, with his only real trouble coming in the 6th when he loaded the bases and subsequently allowed a Paul Konerko sacrifice fly. Derek Lee continues to climb out of the statistical hole dug by his highly unlucky offensive April. The former All-Star was 3-4 last night with one walk and one home run. Matt Wieters showed very well, again, behind the plate with two more sub-2.0 pops to second, throwing out 2-of-3 would-be base stealers. His 53% caught stealing is second in all of baseball, among qualified catchers, behind Oakland's Kurt Suzuki.
Stat of the game
Team LOB 13 (BAL); 0-9 RISP (BAL)
Guthrie continues to suffer through abysmal offensive showings from his teammates -- this time in the form of 13 runners left on base and an inept 0-9 with runners in scoring position. On the season, Guthrie has received the 7th worst run support in all of baseball, with the O's managing just 3.46 runs per Guthrie start.
Orioles Game ball
Derek Lee (3-4, HR (2), BB)
MiLB game balls
Norfolk - PPD
Bowie - Ronnie Welty, of (2-4, 0 SO!)
Frederick - Tyler Townsend, 1b (2-5, HR (4))
Delmarva - Jonathan Schoop, 22/3b (3-5, 2 2B, 3 R)
Three Morning Links
The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly notes beleagured Alfredo Simon, a suspect in a fatal shooting this winter in the Dominican Republic, could start Thursday's game for the AA Bowie Baysox.
The Sun's Jeff Zrebiec with his Morning Notes covering Guthrie, Markakis, Rupe and Bergie.
Brit Ghiroli takes a closer look at Guthrie's lack of run support at MLB.com, noting, "In Guthrie's 18 losses since 2010, the Orioles have scored 24 runs when he's pitching."
Baltimore heads to Kansas City tonight, 8:10 pm Eastern start. Brad Bergesen (0-3, 4.76) will take the hill for the Orioles against Jeff Francis (0-3, 5.03) of the Royals.
Box Score Play-By-Play AP Game Recap
The Birds dropped the series finale to the White Sox, missing out on a chance for a sweep for the second straight series. Jeremy Guthre (L, 1-4) put together a solid start. The Orioles' Ace scattered five hits and two walks over seven innings, with his only real trouble coming in the 6th when he loaded the bases and subsequently allowed a Paul Konerko sacrifice fly. Derek Lee continues to climb out of the statistical hole dug by his highly unlucky offensive April. The former All-Star was 3-4 last night with one walk and one home run. Matt Wieters showed very well, again, behind the plate with two more sub-2.0 pops to second, throwing out 2-of-3 would-be base stealers. His 53% caught stealing is second in all of baseball, among qualified catchers, behind Oakland's Kurt Suzuki.
Stat of the game
Team LOB 13 (BAL); 0-9 RISP (BAL)
Guthrie continues to suffer through abysmal offensive showings from his teammates -- this time in the form of 13 runners left on base and an inept 0-9 with runners in scoring position. On the season, Guthrie has received the 7th worst run support in all of baseball, with the O's managing just 3.46 runs per Guthrie start.
Orioles Game ball
Derek Lee (3-4, HR (2), BB)
MiLB game balls
Norfolk - PPD
Bowie - Ronnie Welty, of (2-4, 0 SO!)
Frederick - Tyler Townsend, 1b (2-5, HR (4))
Delmarva - Jonathan Schoop, 22/3b (3-5, 2 2B, 3 R)
Three Morning Links
The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly notes beleagured Alfredo Simon, a suspect in a fatal shooting this winter in the Dominican Republic, could start Thursday's game for the AA Bowie Baysox.
The Sun's Jeff Zrebiec with his Morning Notes covering Guthrie, Markakis, Rupe and Bergie.
Brit Ghiroli takes a closer look at Guthrie's lack of run support at MLB.com, noting, "In Guthrie's 18 losses since 2010, the Orioles have scored 24 runs when he's pitching."
Baltimore heads to Kansas City tonight, 8:10 pm Eastern start. Brad Bergesen (0-3, 4.76) will take the hill for the Orioles against Jeff Francis (0-3, 5.03) of the Royals.
02 May 2011
Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 5
At the end of 5 weeks, the Orioles are not wildly over or underperforming based on the initial predictions of Camden Depot and the PECOTA forecasting. The Depot has seen a bump of 0.8 games and PECOTA is showing a drop of 0.4 games. Roughly eyeing it, I would say 5 games would be a major shift. We are not seeing that here. There have also been no surprises so far based on what my projections indicate for the rest of the AL East. Although, the Yankees and BoSox have flipped to first and second, respectively.
PECOTA has the Orioles with a 5.5% chance to reach the playoffs. I have them at 1.89%.
If you prefer odds, that would be about 1 in 18 for PECOTA and 1 in 52 for the Depot.
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PECOTA has the Orioles with a 5.5% chance to reach the playoffs. I have them at 1.89%.
If you prefer odds, that would be about 1 in 18 for PECOTA and 1 in 52 for the Depot.
Collegiate Diamonds by the Numbers: Introduction and ACC
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What are those criteria?
Plate discipline - I measure plate discipline by the walk rate and the ratio of walks to strikeouts. I have arbitrarily set these lines as a walk rate >15% and a >1.5 BB:K ratio. The thought behind this is to target players who have a good understanding of hittable pitches and their ability to work for a walk.
Contact rate - I also look for batting averages greater than .300. From an anecdotal perspective, players with good plate discipline AND poor contact rates in college have trouble progressing through the minors. As they face a greater number of pitchers with more command of their pitches, the opportunities for walks will decrease. Pitchers are more likely to pitch in the zone and for a player to make contact. Collegiate players who do not have good contact rates tend to get eaten up by pro-quality offerings.
Power - Good contact rate and plate discipline are a great foundation for a hitting skill set. However, slapping the ball in professional leagues with players who field better is not as useful. There are just not many Ichiro Suzukis out there. In the pro game, there needs to be some power to go along with these skills. Otherwise, pitchers will go at hitters and give them pitches to hit, knowing that there is unlikely to be much damage. For this criteria, I set an ISO of .180.
The numbers I use above are eyeball figures. My goal is to find players who sit above the 75th percentile for these three categories. As I learn more these numbers may change.
Continue reading to see my review of several players in the Atlantic Coast Conference who match this criteria. After the ACC, I will be going through each collegiate conference and identifying players who fit these criteria.
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