Miguel Tejada is the Rock That Keeps Tigers Away

Tom Verducci is known to take a good idea and then grease up every bit of fact to wedge them into his good idea.  He has done it before, quite famously, with the Verducci Effect.  The Verducci Effect states that pitchers are likely to get injured or become ineffective if they suffered an increase of innings pitched greater than 30 from year to year before they turn 25.  The concept is sound.  However, the data has not been entirely useful.  Understanding the variation between arms, 30 innings are likely to be an overly arbitrary number.  A similar instance also known would be Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) as they do not correlate with pitching injury well.  Again, just because the numbers do not entirely support these concepts does not invalidate these concepts.  Moreso, it means that it is difficult whether or not there is an effect due to so many confounding factors.

Another pet project of Verducci is his love of how age performance curves may have changed after MLB instituted stricter drug testing.  In today's column Verducci writes:

There is no doubt Jeter and Tejada are struggling enough that their managers will face questions about where they bat in the order and how many days of rest they should be afforded. But guess what: This is what life used to be like for 37-year-old middle infielders. All of us have to recalculate what should be expected of players as they age through their late 30s.

That is a pretty foolish statement to make.  Just because Jeter and Tejada are doing poorly, are old, and you have a hypothesis . . . it does not necesarrily mean it is a good idea to lump them together.  Verducci fails here because he makes an assumption that there were actually 37 year old middle infielders who were good.  It just has never been so.

So, how many seasons has a 37 year old or older SS produced a WAR greater than 2?
19.

Under Verducci's statement, we would assume that his carefully researched piece would indicate that a large proportion of those 19 season performances happened in the 2000s.  Here they are by year:

1900
Bill Dahlen, 1908 3.9 WAR
1910
Honus Wagner, 1911 7.2
Honus Wagner, 1912 8.1
Honus Wagner, 1913 2.9
Honus Wagner, 1914 2.7
Honus Wagner, 1915 4.5
1920
Rabbit Maranville, 1929 2.3
1930
none
1940
Luke Appling, 1946 5.3
Luke Appling, 1947 3.8
Luke Appling, 1949 4.6
1950
Pee Wee Reese, 1956 2.5
1960
none
1970
Maury Wills, 1971 2.0
Luis Aparicio, 1973 2.3
1980
Larry Bowa, 1983 2.7
1990
Ozzie Smith, 1992 4.3
Ozzie Smith, 1993 2.5
2000
Mike Bordick, 2003 2.1
Omar Vizquel, 2004 3.1
Omar Vizquel, 2006 3.1

As you can see clearly, there is not some amazing boost to the presence of useful, old shortstops in baseball in the 2000s.  This sort of thing happens a couple times each decade and usually happens with a rather unique individual.  The fact that there is not likely going to be an average 37 year old or older SS this year in baseball is not exactly a useful piece of evidence.

Best bets to cross the 2.0 WAR threshold this decade?
2011-2012 Derek Jeter
2013 Marco Scutaro
2015 Rafael Furcal

Thinking about the Duke and Irritable Bowel Syndrome

Through Hardball Talk, I read an article in the Seattle Times.  Defensive wunderkind CF Franklin Gutierrez spent time at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota undergoing a series of tests to have a better understanding of his increasingly worse intestinal ailment which had landed him on the disabled list.  They reached a diagnosis of irritable bowel syndrome, which can be somewhat controlled with medication.  He expressed a sentiment I have heard from a few friends who experienced similar circumstances:

"I've been having this a long time and nobody knew what I had, so knowing now this is what I have (and) can be treatable makes me feel better mentally and now I want to feel better physically, too, to get ready and be here again," Gutierrez said. "It's going to take time for the medicine to work. Let's see how it goes."

My knowledge of IBS is somewhat limited.  However, I will do my best to explain it.  It is a disease that is diagnosed because pretty much everything else has been ruled out.  It is not well understood and conditions known as IBS may actually encompass several different issues yet unknown.  Stress is known to intensify symptoms, which include bloatedness, abdominal pain, and diarrhea.  There also seems to be a connection between IBS and depression.  This may be the product of dysregulation of serotonin levels associated with IBS.

This story and this connection between IBS and depression also makes me think of Justin Duchscherer.  In the May edition of Men's Health, Duchscherer gave an interview to the amazing writer Pat Jordan in which Duke discusses his issues with depression.  Here is an excerpt from the article where he is explaining how he feels:

“People think if you’re rich, you must be happy,” he says. “They can’t understand why you’re not. I feel guilty making so much money playing a game. If I pitch a shutout, it doesn’t make me happy. I think of the guys I struck out, how they’re going home, depressed, to their families.”

I find this interesting because he also suffers from IBS.  In Oakland, Duchscherer started out in the bullpen and would have issues with his bowels.  In the middle to late innings, he would often run off to the bathroom from the pen to use the restroom.  The A's, noticing how his 'nerves' were not handling the bullpen well, shifted him to the starting rotation to give him scenarios where he knew exactly when he would pitch.  That certainty paid off for the A's and resulted in Duchscherer pitching quite effectively when healthy.  The Orioles are hoping that in the second half of the year that Duchscherer is able to provide some usefulness to their rotation.  He is currently dealing with a chronic hip issue that does not appear to be going away.  Based on the current performance of the starting staff and the thin talent at AAA, the Orioles will need him.

I don't know how prevalent IBS is among baseball players.  In a 1999 study on long distance runners and cyclists, it was found that 71% and 64%, respectively, suffered from lower intestinal problems.  Many of these individuals are likely suffering from IBS.  However, it is largely assumed that long distance running or cycling would be more likely to suffer from intestinal issues as extreme fatigue redirects blood from the intestines to the brain and muscles.  Baseball players likely do not have this confounding factor at play.  The only two other professional baseball players who suffered from this that I am aware of are George Brett and Matt McCarthy.  The latter is the author of Odd Man Out, which we will be reading in late June as part of the Camden Depot Book Club.

Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 4

After four weeks into the season, consisting of 20 games, the Orioles find themselves roughly where I imagined them to be: winning about half of their games.  I did not expect them to be so streaky, but it is not surprising.

All three predictions are hovering around each other.  They are who we thought they are.

PECOTA playoff projections have decreased to 2.1%.  They were at 11.6% after two weeks.  Depot projections are at 0.71%.  After two weeks, the probability was at 3.9%.