Updated AL East Predicted Standings: 04/09/11

In the rush of posts in the past two weeks, I neglected to put out the initial week's projected standings.  These are calculated by estimating runs scored and given by each team in a neutralized setting.  This is done by using the MARCEL projections along with a simple tool that predicts Wins Above Replacement by inputting playing time, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.  Once this is calculated I apply Bill James' log5 win expectancy model and the team's remaining schedule.  As with the expected wins piece on Monday, this will eventually take the shape of a graph when I get more data points.

03/31/11 (prior to opening day)
Red Sox 94.7
Yankees 90.0
Rays 82.3
Orioles 79.5
Blue Jays 73.9

04/09/11
Red Sox 93.3
Yankees 90.7
Orioles 81.7 (up from 4th)
Rays 80.1 (down from 3rd)
Blue Jays 74.8

As you can see a week full of games has very little impact on these predictions.  The greatest difference is the Rays who lost 2.1 wins due in part by their losing and also due to Manny Ramirez retiring.  He was on the ledger as contributing 2.5 wins this year.  However, his replacements (Casey Kotchman and eventually Desmond Jennings) account for a 1.5 decrease over the rest of the season.

Is Chris Tillman Injured or just a Taun Taun?

I want to be completely and utterly clear here.  On this occasion, I have absolutely no inside information and am basing this solely off of Pitch f/x.

This Spring Training there were murmurs from opposing scouts that Chris Tillman had turned into a junk pitcher.  He was no longer using his fastball as much and was using it as a show me pitch.  Instead, he had increased his use of his secondary pitches.  I had thought he was doing this just to get more feel on them and get ready for the season.  Last night, it did not look so good.

Fastball
Count: 63
Swing and Miss: 2
Velocity: 87.3 +/- 1.1 mph (89.5 mph max)
Horizontal Run: -1.8 +/- 1.7 inches
Vertical Drop: 11.0 +/- 1.8 inches

In comparison, this is what he did on July 10, 2010:

Fastball
Count: 69
Swing and Miss: 2
Velocity: 91.4 +/- 1.2 mph (93.5 mph max)
Horizontal Run: -3.4 +/- 1.6 inches
Vertical Drop: 10.2 +/- 2.1 inches

Whenever I see a difference of 3 mph or more, it concerns me.  That loss of velocity is a major hindrance.  Comparing the two starts, Tillman was not missing bats with his fastball, but that loss of speed can give a batter more time to square up and make more solid contact.  Compounding that with Tillman getting less movement on his fastball and it becomes more of a concern.

Another important aspect of pitching is to have a nice delta between your fastball and change up.  The wider the margin while keeping the same arm action will affect the batter's ability to time.  Last July the difference between the fastball and change up was 9.5 mph while last night it was 6.8 mph.  The movement also looks a bit flatter.  Last year it had more horizontal runs and more sink.  The curve balls look different too, but both could be useful.  Last year, the pitch was harder and had more drop.  This year, it is about 3 mph slower with more horizontal movement and slightly less drop.

It may have just been a bad night.

How did it compare to last Saturday?
He was humming along at 89.4 with a max of 93.5 mph.  His curve balls was about the same speed, but had almost twice as much movement.  The delta on his fastball to change up was 11 mph.  So . . . this was not the same pitcher.  Tillman, as mentioned earlier, had diminished velocity during the Spring.  His game last Saturday would count as that.  However, last night was worse as his max speed was 4 mph less.  Hopefully, it is just him not being able to adapt to the cold.

Josh Rupe: No. 1

One finger down has traditionally been synonymous with a fastball.  Josh Rupe knows this well.  He knows this so well that he probably is confused when he sees anything else.  At least, this was probably true last night.  Josh Rupe threw 51 pitches over parts of four innings.  He started off with a slider, then mixed in 16 four seam fastballs, a slider, then 17 four seam fastballs, and at this point he decided to mix things up with four seamers and sliders.  It was a remarkable night because I often saw this type of pitching when I was in travel leagues as a teenager.  This approach is fairly uncommon these days.

I think part of Rupe's ability to do this is that his four seamer gets considerable run into right handed batters.  Thrown with good command and control, it is a pitch that will force a good deal of poor contact.  Based on Pitch f/x data, he averages about 8 inches of horizontal run on the pitch.  That aspect of it was the most of any pitcher who threw last night.  The four seamer has enough movement that he can basically throw it over and over again.  However, if his command is slightly off, batters can tee up something that does not run as much or settles into the middle of the plate . . . as we saw last night.  His slider is merely a show me pitch that he uses merely to keep batters off guard with slight movement in the other direction and a change of speed.  If used sparingly, he can throw it for an uncontested strike or get a swing and miss due to sheer surprise.

Here are the numbers...

Four Seam Fastball
Count: 45
Strikes: 28
Swing and Misses: 4
Velocity: 91.6 +/- 0.9 mph
Horizontal Run: -8.2 +/- 1.4 inches
Vertical Drop: 6.4 +/- 1.3 inches

Slider
Count: 6
Strikes: 5
Swing and Misses: 1
Velocity: 84.1 +/- 1.75 mph
Horizontal Run: 4.4 +/- 0.9 inches
Vertical Drop: 1.8 +/-  1.3 inches

To understand the horizontal and vertical movement, it is good to read the Physics of Baseball by Adair.  A normal projectile should have a no movement (0 inches, 0 inches).  There is no such thing as a rising fastball, but there is such a thing as a pitch that does not drop as fast as it should (or faster than it should).  This is due to the seams on the baseball and how its flight can change due to them.

Five Keys to Watch in Frederick

As the Orioles minor league system goes this year, single A Frederick does not offer the promise that is on show in Delmarva, Bowie, and Norfolk.  However, there are several second and third tier prospects who might break out this year.  Including the first player on the list, who has been a follow of ours since he was drafted in the 8th round back in 2008.

Bobby Bundy, RHSP (21 years old)
Bundy was an 8th round selection due to his tearing his anterior cruciate ligament while playing basketball before his senior baseball season.  He rushed back to the mound and pitched while wearing a brace.  His velocity was down, but the Orioles saw enough of the player who was there before the injury to take a chance on him and give him an overslot contract.  Working off the injury and as an 18 year old, it took Bundy about a year and a half for every thing to start clicking.  In 2010, Bundy threw 116 innings at 3.65 with 7.1 k/9 and 3.3 bb/9 rates.  These are not exceptional numbers, but they are solid for a 20 year old in Delmarva and show considerable improvement.  Lapses in command of his fastball (leaves it up sometimes) and his curve (flattens out) still need some more ironing out, but he is becoming more proficient at pitching.  I am looking forward to seeing him throw live for the first time.


The name will also be familiar to those following the draft.  His younger brother Dylan is looking to be drafted in the first 15 picks in June.  There is an off hand (incredibly off hand) chance Dylan is drafted by the Orioles.

Jesse Beal, RHSP
Beal has been mentioned by some as a poor man's Zach Britton.  His numbers have not been quite equal to those of Zach, but he has passed through each level a year younger than Britton.  He is a big guy (6'6") and he throws a heavy fastball, inducing a great deal of ground balls.  His breaking ball and change are still works in progress.  He does not produce many swing and misses, but manages to get hitters to top off on his fastballs and produce weak grounders.  That type of pitcher is one is hard to project.  With each level, he will need to prove himself as more advanced hitters lay off fastballs moving down and beneath the zone.  Those groundballs typically turn into a greater number of line drives.  Zach Britton has been able to defy conservative projections.  How Beal does this year will be a good indication of whether he could do the same.

Dan Klein, RHP
Klein will be throwing this year from the bullpen as he works up innings.  He will likely be groomed as a starter in 2012.  This is what Nick Faleris wrote about him last year:

Klein is an interesting proposition in that his medical history, aggressive demeanor on the mound and fastball/curveball combo all seem to point to a career in relief (as was his role this spring at UCLA). However, with his change-up and slider also as potentially solid offerings, and with some strength in his legs and core, there is enough raw material here to give him a serious run at a rotation spot. The big question will be how his shoulder holds-up under the stress of a full season pro workload, but there is also a question as to whether the stuff will maintain its effectiveness over five to seven innings and over the course of a season. There is some risk here developing him as a starter, but the injury history and his season in the pen mean you can take a shot at a potential mid-rotation arm at a discount. As a redshirt-sophomore, he has some leverage and could head back to UCLA to up his value as a weekend starter alongside 2011 potential 1st Rounders Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. He has set-up upside in the pen, and his fastball/curve/change don't need a ton of work to play against pro bats.

Klein is another interesting pitcher to anticipate seeing in Frederick.

Matt Hobgood, RHP
What can one say about Matt Hobgood?  He has just recently begun throwing after suffering an injury this past off season.  He will likely pitch for the Keys mid-way through the season.  He has been largely underwhelming during his professional career.  The hard fastball and hammer curve that were seen before the 2009 draft have not entire appeared at this level.  His fastball has been consistently in the upper 80s and the curve has lacked command.  He has shown flashes of being a good pitch, but not as often as was hoped when he was selected.  The hope is that his injury is not serious and he has become more devoted to his workout regime.  He has yet to fail at any level, which needs to be emphasized . . . but we have not seen anything to make us think he will be an average MLB player.

Tyler Kelly, 3B
Kelly has some interest to me.  He is not on many follow lists, but he has shown some interesting skills.  He has been sufficient as a third baseman, which is useful.  He also has shown some secondary power, hitting 30 doubles last year.  If more of those can be turned into balls deposited over the fence, it will increase his value immensely.  He has also shown a good ability to draw walks.  However, a major problem is making good contact.  It is difficult for a low minors hitter with a .261 batting average to successfully graduate through the minors.  There is some potential there and fans will probably enjoy seeing him out there.

I hope I am proven wrong about Frederick.  I would be hard pressed to name someone beyond these five.  I'll see them quite a lot this year, so we will see.

Keith Law Mentions Possible O's Draft Targets

In Keith Law's chat on March 31, 2011, he wrote:

The only substantive thing I've heard on them is a preference for a college player, which would probably put them on Hultzen, Bradley, Jungmann, Gray.

 Here is what we wrote about these targets a week or so ago:

Danny Hultzen, LHSP
University of Virginia
Hultzen is a highly polished pitcher with fringe plus offerings. I do not think there is much projection left in his pitches with the exception of his change up. He shows good feel for it and it might qualify as a future plus-plus offering. Command is not an issue, but I think he could improve upon his placement and that would improve how he uses those pitches. His dominance so far this season has been largely due to how well he has been able to place his slider. Some like to think if you flash a skill, you own the skill. I'm a little more conservative than that, but do think the possibility is there. Like Bradley, I think he will move quickly through the minors and not be challenged until the Majors. For comparison's sake, I would put Brian Matusz above him or Bradley.

Jed Bradley, LHSP
Georgia Tech
I tend to value college players and college lefties a great deal. Bradley fulfills both. He throws a fastball in the low 90s and accompanies that with a fringe-plus change up and a good slider. He is the type of pitcher who is a safe bet to glide through the minors and not meet resistance until he faces more polished hitters in the Majors. He has a good strong body and a motion without any red flags for me. I'm hoping to see him in person when I make it to Clemson this year.

Taylor Jungmann, RHSP
University of Texas - Austin
Jungmann is safer than Gray and has the potential to be a front end starter. His pitching motion is easier than Gray's as it is not as maximum effort. However, it should be noted that there may be some interest in lengthening his stride as currently it is short enough that he puts extra stress on his shoulder to get his arm to catch up. It may also be a situation where he is a very good prospect and it might be a poor idea to change anything significantly. He has a low 90s fastball and slots his change up similarly to make it an effective offering. Jungmann also has a slurve that is not as sharp as Gray's, but flashes plus with good command. He is another solid arm in this draft class.

Sonny Gray, RHSP
Vanderbilt University
I might be on an island here, but many look at his full effort delivery and his small stature . . . then see a closer in the making. Although it is a full effort delivery, I think it can be repeatable. His stuff is electric with a hard, tailing fastball that he keeps in the mid to low 90s and a plus-plus curve that has movement in two planes. He has had some control issues in the past and many blame the delivery on it, but from reports I have read this year it sounds that control has not been as worrisome. He has also been working on a slider that would give his repertoire a boost in the depth of his offerings. I would be quite excited to land him.

2011 Season Wins and Playoff Odds: Week 1

There are only two data points, so there is not much to say.  However, the three wins nearly doubled our probability for the Orioles to make the postseason.  This is a result of the Orioles sweeping the Rays whereas the model thought they would win one game, maybe two.  The Pythagorean method is being swamped by only have three data points and no foundation to base its earlier 81 default.  It should settle down more so in the next few weeks.



Click on image to make larger.



The Pros and Cons of Zach Britton

It appears that when Brian Matusz was hit by LJ Hoes' line drive, he twisted sharply and suffered a Grade II strain on his intercostal muscles.  This set up a flurry of medical tests and plane tickets that has placed Matusz on the 15 day DL, likely to be out for six weeks, and Zach Britton getting the call on Sunday in Tampa.  The original plan was for Britton to pick up a month or two in Norfolk before sliding into the rotation in Baltimore, thereby giving the Orioles and additional year of control over his contract.  If he now spends less than 20 days from here on in the minors outside of rehabilitation stints, that year comes back to the Orioles.  You may remember that this was exactly what happened to JJ Hardy when Milwaukee optioned him to the minors in 2009 and prevented him from entering free agency last off season.

How does this effect the Orioles in the long term?
Well, losing out on Zach Britton is a concern.  The value of an average pitcher in 2010 dollars is about 10MM on the free agent market.  Lets assume, Britton is an average pitcher from 2011 to 2016.  In 2010 dollars, his saving each year would be about 9.5, 9.5, 10, 6, 4, and 2MM.  If you delayed him from the start, you get him for seven years and see something like 9.5, 9.5, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 2MM.  With that perspective, you lose one year of an average pitcher at 2MM.  Or 8MM to subsidize a pitcher.  That 8MM could then be used to put someone like Derrek Lee at first base for a season.  So, it is a considerable savings.  Even more so when this is practiced as a full on strategy because you wind up saving money long term on the performance of several players and all you had to do was not have one of them for 20 days.

Realistically though . . . how does this effect the Orioles in the long term?
It probably does not.  In all likelihood, Zach Britton will not be an average pitcher six years from now.  If you look at Baseball America's top 100 prospects over the past 20 seasons, pitching prospects who ranked in the 21 to 30 range (Zach Britton was ranked 28th this season) were considered "busts" 79.4% of the time.  In other words, four out of five Zach Brittons are not going to be able to keep themselves in a Major League rotation over the course of six seasons.  What the Orioles are losing is a 8MM lottery ticket that they will win on 20% of the time . . . six years from now.

Does this make sense?
For the Orioles . . . I do not see really any way it makes sense.  The team has a 2-3% chance to make it to the playoffs.  The difference between Zach Britton and Rick VandenHurk or Mark Hendrickson over the course of four to six starts is probably worth about half a win to a full win in the standings.  Let us say, it is worth two wins to be generous.  The Orioles will likely need to win 92 games to win the Wild Card and I currently have them hovering just below a .500 team.  It is highly unlikely that the team is a 90 win team (I have them as a 3.2% likelihood of reaching 90 wins), so that 8MM lottery ticket is potentially being tossed in the drainage grate in exchange for nothing.

However, for a team teetering on the edge of the playoffs, an increase in two wins is quite a considerable value.  Teams bring in about 1.5-2 MM for every home playoff game they play.  If the player makes enough of a difference that his presence on the team is the deciding factor on them making the playoffs, then just by being in the divisional series the team will break even in value.  This does not consider any potential gains in attendance at the beginning of the following year due to the playoff appearance.

In other words, a team like the Yankees should have Zach Britton in their rotation without regard to contract status while a team like the Orioles should not.  However, I will be quite interested in seeing Britton dealing in the low 90s and inducing grounders 60% of the time.

Note - Super Two status is most likely not an issue here as the next Collective Bargaining Agreement because that status is likely not going to be there.