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PECOTA has the Orioles with a 5.5% chance to reach the playoffs. I have them at 1.89%.
If you prefer odds, that would be about 1 in 18 for PECOTA and 1 in 52 for the Depot.
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There is no doubt Jeter and Tejada are struggling enough that their managers will face questions about where they bat in the order and how many days of rest they should be afforded. But guess what: This is what life used to be like for 37-year-old middle infielders. All of us have to recalculate what should be expected of players as they age through their late 30s.That is a pretty foolish statement to make. Just because Jeter and Tejada are doing poorly, are old, and you have a hypothesis . . . it does not necesarrily mean it is a good idea to lump them together. Verducci fails here because he makes an assumption that there were actually 37 year old middle infielders who were good. It just has never been so.
"I've been having this a long time and nobody knew what I had, so knowing now this is what I have (and) can be treatable makes me feel better mentally and now I want to feel better physically, too, to get ready and be here again," Gutierrez said. "It's going to take time for the medicine to work. Let's see how it goes."My knowledge of IBS is somewhat limited. However, I will do my best to explain it. It is a disease that is diagnosed because pretty much everything else has been ruled out. It is not well understood and conditions known as IBS may actually encompass several different issues yet unknown. Stress is known to intensify symptoms, which include bloatedness, abdominal pain, and diarrhea. There also seems to be a connection between IBS and depression. This may be the product of dysregulation of serotonin levels associated with IBS.
“People think if you’re rich, you must be happy,” he says. “They can’t understand why you’re not. I feel guilty making so much money playing a game. If I pitch a shutout, it doesn’t make me happy. I think of the guys I struck out, how they’re going home, depressed, to their families.”I find this interesting because he also suffers from IBS. In Oakland, Duchscherer started out in the bullpen and would have issues with his bowels. In the middle to late innings, he would often run off to the bathroom from the pen to use the restroom. The A's, noticing how his 'nerves' were not handling the bullpen well, shifted him to the starting rotation to give him scenarios where he knew exactly when he would pitch. That certainty paid off for the A's and resulted in Duchscherer pitching quite effectively when healthy. The Orioles are hoping that in the second half of the year that Duchscherer is able to provide some usefulness to their rotation. He is currently dealing with a chronic hip issue that does not appear to be going away. Based on the current performance of the starting staff and the thin talent at AAA, the Orioles will need him.
|Orioles' OF Xavier Avery|
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Zach Britton has a chance to become what Stephen Strasburg was last year: Must-see TV. He is a very rare lefty with veering 95 mph fastball.As you probably know, I have always been a bit shy when it comes to predicting success for Zach Britton over the years. He is a pitcher who does best by inducing poor contact (e.g. ground balls). In the minors, you typically see a reduction in ground ball rates as you move up the ladder. If I remember correctly, a league average pitcher will typically see a decrease in grounders about 10%. In other words, if a pitcher was inducing 50% ground balls in low-A then the average result would be a 45% line in AAA. These lost grounders are thought to be diverted into balls and line drives. This is thought to mostly be a product of more polished hitters higher in the minors who lay off the low pitches or can square up the ball low in the zone or get around on high velocity pitches.
Klein is another interesting pitcher to anticipate seeing in Frederick.Klein is an interesting proposition in that his medical history, aggressive demeanor on the mound and fastball/curveball combo all seem to point to a career in relief (as was his role this spring at UCLA). However, with his change-up and slider also as potentially solid offerings, and with some strength in his legs and core, there is enough raw material here to give him a serious run at a rotation spot. The big question will be how his shoulder holds-up under the stress of a full season pro workload, but there is also a question as to whether the stuff will maintain its effectiveness over five to seven innings and over the course of a season. There is some risk here developing him as a starter, but the injury history and his season in the pen mean you can take a shot at a potential mid-rotation arm at a discount. As a redshirt-sophomore, he has some leverage and could head back to UCLA to up his value as a weekend starter alongside 2011 potential 1st Rounders Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. He has set-up upside in the pen, and his fastball/curve/change don't need a ton of work to play against pro bats.
The only substantive thing I've heard on them is a preference for a college player, which would probably put them on Hultzen, Bradley, Jungmann, Gray.Here is what we wrote about these targets a week or so ago:
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