Reminder: Oriole Book Club

Reminder . . . purchase a copy of Weaver on Strategy and read it for the book club.  We should have a podcast up later in the month along with a live chat and a post or two.

April (one book)

Weaver on Strategy: The Classic Work on the Art of Managing a Baseball Team
by Earl Weaver and Terry Pluto

This book is Earl Weaver handbook on how to run a baseball team.  He dives into the inning to inning tasks as well as what he thinks needs to be considered over the course of the full season.  Personally, I have no read this work and have been told by many that this is essential reading for not only any Oriole fan, but also for any fan of baseball.

May (two books)

The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First
by Jonah Keri

This is Jonah Keri book on how the Tampa Bay Rays success story.  It is about how the worst team in baseball looked to find any and every advantage, no matter how small.  By slightly exploiting areas more efficiently than the Yankees or Red Sox enabled them to be successful.  Studying the Rays' success may provide some perspective to how the Orioles might be better run.

Built to Win: Inside Stories and Leadership Strategies from Baseball's Winningest GM
by John Schuerholz, Bob Costas, and Larry Guest

Schuerholtz tells some stories about his career and throws down some of his knowledge.  As I know his strategies, he considers himself to some extent an anti-Moneyball-ist . . . which is not exactly something I understand what it is.  We figure this is a good book to read about a successful general manager with ideas that differ from those with the Rays and, to some extent, Earl Weaver.

June (two books)

Dollar Sign on the Muscle: the World of Baseball Scouting
by Kevin Kerrane

This book is sadly out of print, but look around and try to find it for a good price.  Nick Faleris suggested this one and with it being in the first half of June . . . it fits in nicely with the Amateur draft.  From what I have been told, it is the history of baseball through a scout's eyes.

Odd Man Out: A Year on the Mound with a Minor League Misfit
by Matthew McCarthy

Matthew McCarthy was a left handed pitcher who was selected late in the draft by the Los Angelos Angels.  This book is about his first and only season in professional baseball.  There has been some dispute over the veracity of aspects of the book, but, for the most part, it is considered a reasonable portrait of minor league ball.

July (first half of July)

Venezuelan Bust, Baseball Boom: Andres Reiner and Scouting on the New Frontier

by Milton Jamail

Reiner is currently with the Tampa Bay Rays breaking into Brazil.  In this book, it describes his effort in tapping into the talent available in Venezuela when almost all teams were ignoring the country.  His finds of note include Johann Santana, Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, Bobby Abreu, and former Oriole Melvin Mora.  The explains how the scouting system works and how Reiner has excelled at it.

Best Pitching Performance of the Year? Jeremy Guthrie

Opening day is out of the way for every team.  As it stands, Jeremy Guthrie has arguably had the great performance of any of them, which is impressive because teams begin the season with the pitcher they perceive as the best.  So how am I suggesting that Guthrie has had the best performance so far?  Game Score.

Game score is a fairly simple statistic that tries to determine the value of a pitching performance.  It uses innings pitched, strikeouts, walks, hits, earned runs, unearned runs (because unearned runs are poorly credited as pitchers really should not be completely absolved of responsibility for them), and extra credit for each innings completed after the fourth.  The formula is as follows:

Game Score = 50 + 3*IP + K + IP (completed after 4 innings) - 2*hits - 4*ER - 2*ER - BB

Jeremy Guthrie's line last night was 8 IP, 3 hits, 6 k, and 1 BB with no runs scored.  Plugging that into the equation we get:

81 = 50 + 3*8 + 6 + 4 - 2*3 - 4*0 - 2*0 - 1

A Game Score of 81 is the best mark of the season.  The top 5 so far are:

Jeremy Guthrie, 81
Clayton Kershaw, 77
Felix Hernandez, 74
Jered Weaver, 73
Chris Carpenter, 67
Derek Lowe, 67
Tim Lincecum, 67

It should be noted that a score of 81 would not have been in last year's top 40 with the lowest score among those being 86.  Last year, Brandon Morrow had the highest Game Score at 100 with his 9 IP one hitter where he marked up 17 strikeouts and walked 2.  The highest Game Score ever for a 9 inning game was Kerry Wood's masterpiece in 1998 where he struck out 20 while only giving up a hit (the highest possible score is 114).

After the jump, Guthrie Game Score graphically as he progressed from batter to batter last night and how his final Game Score compared to his performances last year.

Brian Matusz has an intercostal strain

It was announced tonight that Brian Matusz will be out 3-4 weeks with an intercostal strain and that Zach Britton will take his place in the rotation.  This left many a Baltimore Oriole fan asking . . . "Just what is an intercostal strain?"

 

The intercoastal are a series of muscles that are interlaced with the ribs and help provide stability to the rib cage.  Straining this muscle is usually the result of a quick and sudden twisting of the core.  Matusz may have experienced this during his reaction to being hit with a line drive this past week in his final tuneup against LJ Hoes.  The batted ball hitting his biceps would not have been the issue, it would have been him reacting and twisting away from the ball.

Based on the three to four week number, this sounds like a Grade II strain of the intercostal muscles.  This is a bad, but not awful strain.  It would not be surprising if it takes about a month and a half for him to heal up and another rehab start or two.  Right now, he is probably feeling some discomfort while breathing and constant, dull ache in his rib cage.

2011 Season Wins and Playoff Odds: Week 0

Bald Eagle Hatching from Ed Smith Stadium

So begins another year and another season of keeping track of projected wins and playoff odds for the Baltimore Orioles.  In years past we have seen the three measures I use (PECOTA, Pythagorean, and Camden Depot's house stats) follow the team and mosey toward actual reality.  Typically, the team does about six to ten games worse than the projections each year.  Hopefully this season is different.

Graphs depicting the journey will appear from now on every Monday.  It being the first week, we only have one data point.  As a brief reminder, here is a rundown of each system:
PECOTA - I use Baseball Prospectus' projections that models the season and predicts wins and playoff opportunity.
Camden Depot - I used MARCEL projections to determine team WAR, adjust the WAR with a log5 strength of schedule factor, and then use a simple binomial function that determines the likelihood of the Orioles winning 92 games.  Why 92?  Based on all of the projection systems I have seen, 92 wins is likely what will result in a wild card.
Pythagorean - It assumes that what has happened will happen again no matter the sample size.  I will also use the same binomial function as a playoff predictor.

Projected Wins:
PECOTA - 80.3 wins; 8.20% playoff chance
Camden Depot - 79.5 (80.7 without adjustment); 2.23%
Pythagorean - 81 (by default); 3.56%

The Depot's current projection of 2.23% is currently the lowest of the systems I can find.  CAIRO puts them at 12.5%.

Vladimir Guerrero Tries to Make History

Vladimir Guerrero is going to try to climb a mountain, a figurative one.  Since the DH came into being, only 24 players who were 36 years or older have had more than 250 plate appearances with at least 95% of those appearances as a DH.  These exclusive DHs averaged 2.0 +/- 1.8 WAR (-0.6 to 5.7 WAR range).  This year we will keep track of how Vladimir performs during the season.

Click to make larger.

They rank as follows:

1. Edgar Martinez, Seattle Mariners, 2000 5.7 WAR
2. Edgar Martinez, Seattle Mariners, 2001 5.5 WAR
3. Hal McRae, Kansas City Royals, 1982 4.0 WAR
4. Edgar Martinez, Seattle Mariners, 2003 3.5 WAR
5. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox, 2007 3.4 WAR
6. Frank Thomas, Oakland Athletics, 2006 3.3 WAR
7. Paul Molitor, Toronto Blue Jays, 1994 3.3 WAR
8. Brian Downing, California Angels, 1988 3.1 WAR
9. Rico Carty, Cleveland Indians, 1978 3.0 WAR
10. Ken Singleton, Baltimore Orioles, 1983 2.3 WAR
11. Frank Thomas, Chicago White Sox, 2007 2.0 WAR
12. Brian Downing, California Angels, 1989 2.0 WAR
13. Dave Parker, Milwaukee Brewers, 1990 1.9 WAR
14. Hal McRae, Kansas City Royals, 1983 1.7 WAR
15. Chili Davis, California Angels, 1996 1.5 WAR
16. Rico Carty, Cleveland Indians, 1977 1.3 WAR
17. Al Kaline, Detroit Tigers, 1974 0.6 WAR
18. Dwight Evans, Boston Red Sox, 1990 0.5 WAR
19. Paul Molitor, Toronto Blue Jays, 1995 0.3 WAR
20. Willie Horton, Seattle Mariners, 1979 0.2 WAR
21. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays, 2008 0.0 WAR
22. Dave Winfield, Minnesota Twins, 1994 -0.2 WAR
23. George Brett, Kansas City Royals, 1993 -0.4 WAR
24. Cecil Cooper, Milwaukee Brewers, 1987 -0.6 WAR

Introducing the Camden Depot Oriole Book Club

It is my pleasure to announce a new feature at Camden Depot: the book club.  We are hoping this is something you can actively take part in with us as we read through some books I am quite excited to review.  The criteria for the inclusion of books in this activity is pretty simple: it has to be about baseball and in some way can be applied to discussion about the Baltimore Orioles.  Those vague qualifications open up some great choices to read during the first half of the baseball season.  We are planning to go through a book every two weeks, so the pace is somewhat accelerated.  Feel free to come along on the ride with us or to pick and choose on books you really want to read.  Although the majority of these works are items I have never read before, they have all come highly recommended to me from various folks in baseball. 

The first book we will read is Weaver on Strategy.  It should be required reading for any Oriole fan.  Nick Faleris (of Camden Depot and DiamondScape Scouting) and I will be publishing a podcast on our thoughts on the book the third week of April with an open live chat during the fourth week of April.  By putting a podcast out first, it may help focus some conversation for the live chat or kindle new ideas to raise.

Here is a list of books we have scheduled so far.  I have included links to potential places where you can find them.

April (one book)

Weaver on Strategy: The Classic Work on the Art of Managing a Baseball Team
by Earl Weaver and Terry Pluto

This book is Earl Weaver handbook on how to run a baseball team.  He dives into the inning to inning tasks as well as what he thinks needs to be considered over the course of the full season.  Personally, I have no read this work and have been told by many that this is essential reading for not only any Oriole fan, but also for any fan of baseball.

May (two books)

The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First
by Jonah Keri

This is Jonah Keri book on how the Tampa Bay Rays success story.  It is about how the worst team in baseball looked to find any and every advantage, no matter how small.  By slightly exploiting areas more efficiently than the Yankees or Red Sox enabled them to be successful.  Studying the Rays' success may provide some perspective to how the Orioles might be better run.

Built to Win: Inside Stories and Leadership Strategies from Baseball's Winningest GM
by John Schuerholz, Bob Costas, and Larry Guest

Schuerholtz tells some stories about his career and throws down some of his knowledge.  As I know his strategies, he considers himself to some extent an anti-Moneyball-ist . . . which is not exactly something I understand what it is.  We figure this is a good book to read about a successful general manager with ideas that differ from those with the Rays and, to some extent, Earl Weaver.

June (two books)

Dollar Sign on the Muscle: the World of Baseball Scouting
by Kevin Kerrane

This book is sadly out of print, but look around and try to find it for a good price.  Nick Faleris suggested this one and with it being in the first half of June . . . it fits in nicely with the Amateur draft.  From what I have been told, it is the history of baseball through a scout's eyes.

Odd Man Out: A Year on the Mound with a Minor League Misfit
by Matthew McCarthy

Matthew McCarthy was a left handed pitcher who was selected late in the draft by the Los Angelos Angels.  This book is about his first and only season in professional baseball.  There has been some dispute over the veracity of aspects of the book, but, for the most part, it is considered a reasonable portrait of minor league ball.

July (first half of July)

Venezuelan Bust, Baseball Boom: Andres Reiner and Scouting on the New Frontier

by Milton Jamail

Reiner is currently with the Tampa Bay Rays breaking into Brazil.  In this book, it describes his effort in tapping into the talent available in Venezuela when almost all teams were ignoring the country.  His finds of note include Johann Santana, Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, Bobby Abreu, and former Oriole Melvin Mora.  The explains how the scouting system works and how Reiner has excelled at it.

---

The second half of the book club season will be announced some time in June to let anyone who is taking part in it to have ample time to buy the books.  We hope some of you out there will find this as interesting and exciting as we do.

Orioles sitting at home while other teams go abroad.

The latest in the continuing coverage of the Orioles international efforts on talent acquisition.  Follow us @CamdenDepot on twitter.

I was reading the latest issue of ESPN magazine on the train home yesterday.  Usually, I consider the writing to be largely fodder that occupies me as I wait to traverse sixteen stations to get to work or to come back home.  However, one article by Jorge Arangure Jr. piqued my interest: Beisebol from the Ground Up.  Beisebol is Portuguese, I assume, for baseball.  Brazil has been a hotbed of athletic recruitment for basketball and soccer, but has been largely ignored for baseball.  What is more interesting is that there is a strong but small undercurrent of interest in the game as a result of a 1908 trade agreement between Brazil and Japan.  The Japanese immigrants took baseball along with them and have been playing in Brazil ever since.  Although there is interest, no Brazilians are in the majors and only six have made it into the minors.  This definitely sounds like an area that might be exploited by a Major League Baseball team.  That team would be the Tampa Bay Rays.

In 2006, the Rays hired long time scout Andres Reiner after he left the Astros.  Us Oriole fans might remember him as the guys who found Melvin Mora.  He also attributed for Johan Santana, Bobby Abreu, Carlos Guillen, and Freddy Garcia.  He is well established and he was able to sell the Rays to take a chance on expanding their horizons.  Now, this is something we generally attribute to rich teams that have extra cash to spend on long term bets.  The Yankees are involved in China, the Braves in Panama, and the Cubs in Korea.  How did the Rays manage to do this.

Arangure Jr. writes:

Even harder to believe is that the Rays have so far spent zero dollars on the construction of the academy [in Brazil near San Paulo].  The 2.5MM project has been subsidized by both federal and local funds.  Tampa Bay's only financial commitment is for the upkeep of the academy, which could be anywhere from 500k to 1MM per year, for the next five years.  Tampa Bay won't even have to spend a dime on players' medical care since all Brazilians are covered through the country's universal health care system.

This is exactly what the Orioles should be thinking about and doing.  The Rays found a venue for talent that they could get a head start on and their seeding money investment is next to nothing.  They are really only responsible for their head scout arranging everything and his travel.  In return, Brazilians become familiar with the team and relationships build.  This is one of the most important aspects of signing prime talent on the middle and lower end of the signing bonus spectrum.  Having good contacts in a country is important, otherwise you are simply fighting over the high priced prospects.  The Orioles have shown before with Miguel Jean Sano that they do not have a strong interest in fighting for those players, so this would be a strong alternative.  It is a vision that I wish the Orioles had.

2011 First Round Talents in MLB Draft: Composite Rankings (March 27, 2011)

Each year, I keep track of some of the major publications and evaluators to determine a consensus amateur ranking.  This should give you an idea where in general these evaluation sources agree and where they disagree.  For the first edition, I have included Keith Law, Nick Faleris, and Baseball America.  Keith Law is an analyst for ESPN and does his own scouting.  Nick Faleris operates Diamondscape Scouting and contributes to an MLB organization.  He as well does his own scouting.  As I understand Baseball America's process, their list is more a compilation of discussions with scouts.

The following chart list the top 33 rankings, which is the same number of selections in the first round this year.  The name rank from 33rd to 1st.  In order words, players thought to be of higher quality are found lower down on the list.  The extension from the bar is the standard deviation of the three sources, which indicates level of agreement.  If a source does not rank a specific prospect in their top 50, I automatically gave them a value of 75 from that source.  Only two players in the top 33 had to have ranks of 75th assigned to them (Taylor Guerrieri from Baseball America, Kolton Wong from Keith Law).

Finally, the sources date as follows Baseball America (February 3rd), Keith Law (March 22nd), and Nick Faleris (March 27th).

Click on the graph to make it more legible.

Based on these rankings, Bubba Starling is the fourth ranked player at 5.67.  The following is a list of players ranked above Starling as well as those who are with one standard deviation of 5.67.  Players are listed (with mean +/- SD) from 76 players mentioned among all three lists over the course of this draft season:

1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice University 1.33 +/- 0.58
2. Garrit Cole, RHP, UCLA 1.67 +/- 0.58
3. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt 4.33 +/- 1.15
4. Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS) 5.67 +/- 3.79
5. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas 7.33 +/- 3.21
6. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia 7.67 +/- 3.51
12. Matthew Purke, LHP, TCU 10.67 +/- 7.09
31. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, North Augusta HS (SC) 34.33 +/- 35.91

Both Matthew Purke and Taylor Guerrieri might fall off this list.  Based on reports, it sounds like more and more scouts are growing weary of Purke.  This downgrading is apparent in both Law's and Faleris' March rankings, but is not in Baseball America's February rankings.  Due to BA reacting to what the field tells them, they will be slightly slower in gauging value and a month old list will affect that even more.  I imagine a re-ranking from BA would result in Purke being in the 12-17 range with a much narrowing standard deviation.  Guerrieri would probably have the same fate.  If BA would re-rank their list, Guerrieri would probably fall within the top 50 and he would like find himself in the 20s with a standard deviation insufficient to make this list.

I should note that players not mentioned on that list would not be reaches.  Based on merely standard deviations, it would be safer to use a two standard deviation measure to indicate a "total universe" of considered selections.  Even then, it should not be used as a hard and fast rule.  Joe Ross (ranked 47th with the composite mean) would qualify for this list while Archie Bradley (ranked 9th) would not.  I'm not certain what a more solid rule would entail.

Five Shorebirds to Watch in Delmarva

For those of you who might be interested, here is a quick list of players to pay attention to in the low minors.  Finishing up my doctorate last year, I managed to see only a single game at Bowie (it was a tough long summer), so these assessment are a product of some video, my thoughts before last season, and various reports all mingled together.  I am also assuming where certain players may wind up.  First up . . . the Delmarva Shorebirds.  This is the team I am most excited about in the Orioles system and I am hoping to venture over to the Eastern Shore a few times this season, enjoy some minor league ball, and eat some Smith Island Cake.

Jonathan Schoop, 3B (19 years old)
I've never seen Schoop play, but he was certainly garnering a good deal of attention last year in training camp and then in the Gulf Coast League and the Appalachian League.  A shortstop last season, he will likely be shifting over to third base for the Shorebirds to accomodate 2010 first round selection Manny Machado.  This move expedited a switch that was likely to come later on based on body shape.  Schoop has shown good plate discipline and secondary power that might develop into above average power.  At this moment, he appears to be the most valuable international prospect the Orioles currently employ. 

Mychal Given's Predraft ESPN Photo

Mychal Givens, INF (21 years old)
Givens has had some trouble to begin his career.  He was an older high school senior, held out until the end for a contract after being drafted, was thought to be more advanced as a pitcher, and quickly broke his thumb a few games into the season last year.  However, in a handful of at bats he dominated Aberdeen, getting walks, doubles, and home runs.  It was quite a small amount of plate appearances to gauge anything on, but it leaves hope that his bat is far better than he showed in high school or for what I credited him.  Although his plus arm and average-ish range is not ideal for second base, I imagine he will slide over there in Delmarva.  I think he will likely be patroling the outfield by the time he reaches Bowie . . . or pitching.

Manny Machado, SS (18 years old)
Machado was the Orioles first selection (third overall) in last year's draft.  He managed to take in a few plate appearances in Aberdeen and did not look overmatched.  His first major test will be in Delmarva where he stands to play shortstop for the Shorebirds.  My expectations for him will be that he will at least hold his own and will likely be one of the better hitters in the league while playing average defense (for a A- shortstop).  I still fear that as he matures, it will force a move to third base where his bat will look less impressive.  That sentiment though finds me in a great minority.  Everyone else I talk to thinks he will be able to stick at short and develop into an average defensive shortstop.

Micheal Ohlman, C (19 years old)
I listed Ohlman here because there really are not any other big ticket items here and Ohlman carries a 1MM signing bonus from the 2009 draft.  Last year found him with several injuries and being completely overmatched with his hitting.  At 6'4, his catching skills are likely to never develop into a beneficial characteristic of his play, so the Orioles need his bat to develop.  This is not exactly a make or break year for him as a player, but in my mind it sure seems to be in terms of keeping track on him past 2011.

Bridwell tossin' for Whitefaces

Parker Bridwell, RHSP
Here is what co-founder of Camden Depot, Nick Faleris, had to say about Bridwell last year:

Bridwell is still mostly projection, but there is a lot to like given the room in his frame to add strength and his easy arm action producing upper-80s velocity. He is a multi-sport talent with good athleticism, which should help him to incorporate pro instruction into his motion without throwing things out of whack. Schrader may be the best value of the draft for Baltimore, capable of dialing up to the 94-95 mph range and regularly sitting in the low-90s. He also shows-off a hard low- to mid-80s slider with sweep and dive, giving him a prototypical combo for late-inning work. He racked up SO/9 and SO/BB rates of 15.97 and 3.67, respectively, this spring along with a .217 BAA. If he can show an ability to spot his slider against advanced bats, he could move very quickly.

He could be a very exciting player to watch.  I've heard nothing but positives about him over the off season.

Based on what we currently know about the players this year in Delmarva, I suggest you all go and see them play.  Much of the Orioles potential up and coming talent will be found there.

As a sad aside, one of the players I noted to watch last year was a promising pitcher by the name of Vito Frabizio.  He had dropped out of high school, move to Florida, and was said to be avoiding the trouble that chased him up in Jersey.  In 2009, he was able to rack up strikeouts and few walks.  He never threw a pitch last year for the Orioles because he was released with people mentioning that he was uncoachable and disrespectful (this was incorrect, I was informed otherwise since publishing, but am not able to share what I have been told).  I hoped it would be a wakeup call and he would find himself with an Indy team and back with a MLB club this spring.  None of that lost promise matters now as he was arrested this past week in connection to a robbery.  He admitted that the money was stolen in order to buy heroin.  I hope he finds help.