Each year, I run projections for how well the Orioles will do. Since I began doing this in 2007, they have underperformed every single year. The players just do not seem to uphold any of the standards set by the projection systems, so I tend to be pessimistic when I look at these simple season win projections for how well the team will do.
As I always do, I am using ZiPS which can be found at Baseball Think Factory and at some point will show up on FanGraphs. For the Orioles, I assumed the following roster.
C Matt Wieters
C Craig Tatum
1B Derek Lee
2B Brian Roberts
3B Matt Reynolds
SS JJ Hardy
INF Cesar Izturis
INF Brandon Harris
OF Felix Pie
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Luke Scott
DH Nolan Reimold
I assume significant missed time for Roberts, Hardy, and Jones (about ~200 PA each) with replacement level production assuming a backup role.
S Jeremy Guthrie
S Brian Matusz
S Jake Arrieta
S Brad Bergesen
S Chris Tillman
S Zach Britton (assumed he will get about 100 IP this year)
C Koji Uehara
R Kevin Gregg
R Mike Gonzalez
R Jeremy Accardo
R Jim Johnson
R Rick Vanden Hurk
R Misc
Predictions and some thoughts as to how this team will get to the playoffs after the jump.