Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 12

It has been awhile since I last posted the Orioles predicted wins and playoff probability.  All of the systems were sliding between 76 and 80 wins.  That just did not seem an incredibly exciting thing to update every week.  So where has a month later left us?  Between 76 and 80.  Perhaps it is slightly exciting to note that the Camden Depot and PECOTA predictions are beginning to move away from the Pythagorean.

A few more detailed notes:

• The Orioles took four wins against Seattle during the six games in which they will face each other this year.  My system predicted 3.43 wins, so this was a good outcome for the team.
• They split even with the Nationals three games a piece.  3.42 wins were expected.
• Against Cincinnati they took two of three while the expectation was 1.47 wins.
• They dropped two of their three to the Pirates where they were expected to win 1.67.

Out of these four finished series, they are +0.01 wins based on my initial projection.  This is practically breaking even.  Series against the Yankees, Jays, and Indians are not going so well and the team is likely to under-perform against those teams.

Before we get to the updated graph, here are some solid posts over the past month:
They Lathe Bats, Don't They?  An interview with a guy who makes bats for some of the Orioles
Science of Baseball Always a crowd pleaser
Revisiting MLB Reallignment

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