Shadow Draft: 2010 Game Plan

It’s just about that time of year when Camden Depot puts on its Shadow Draft hat and takes a stab at the Rule 4 Amateur Draft. As a reminder, Jon and I will be making a selection at each Orioles pick for the first ten rounds of this June’s draft. Thus far, Camden Depot has made fifteen selections (five in 2008 and increasing to ten in 2009). Here are the results thus far -- the current “Shadow System” (reminder, the system would include all O's picks except those that would have been made below -- so, for example, the Shadow System does not have Xavier Avery since Tim Melville was selected in the same slot):

Year (Round) - Player
2008 (1) - Brian Matusz, LHP, Univ. of San Diego
2008 (2) - Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS (MO)
2008 (3) - Roger Kieschnick, RF, Texas Tech
2008 (4) - Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA
2008 (5) - Brian Humphries, OF, Granite Hills HS (CA) (ATTENDING PEPPERDINE)
2009 (1) - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA)
2009 (2) - Todd Glaesmann, OF, Midway HS (TX)
2009 (3) - Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville University
2009 (4) - Dustin Dickerson, 1B, Baylor Univ.
2009 (5) - Ian Krol, LHP, Neuqua Valley HS (IL)
2009 (6) - Brody Colvin, RHP, St. Thomas More HS (LA)
2009 (7) - Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC)
2009 (8) - Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor Univ.
2009 (9) - Ryan Berry, RHP, Rice University
2009 (10)- Sam Dyson, RHP, Univ. of South Carolina (BACK TO SOU. CAROLINA/2010 ELIGIBLE)

After the jump, Jon and I will be laying-out what we think our strategy for the 2010 draft should be, focusing on areas of need and the best way to fill those while taking the best talent available..

Stotle’s Plan
This draft is heaviest on high school arms (RHP) and the big strategical question is how to best compensate for not having a 2nd Round pick this year. Looking at the Shadow System, the Shadow O’s need bats in a big way. Unfortunately, I don’t see a good fit for that in Round 1, which means we will need to get a little creative. My “wants” checklist for the draft is loosely set at the following:

2 MIF (best available; college/HS)
1 HS Catcher
1 Potential power bat at a corner (college/HS)
1 Potential CF (college/HS)
4 arms (mix upside HS and power college arms)

The Shadow Orioles are weak up-the-middle and there are some good opportunities for centerfielders at different points in the opening rounds. The HS catching crop is solid and should offer some value at multiple points, as well. Plenty of arms to pick from, so I expect to load-up on a couple in Rounds 7-10 (either power college arms profiling to relief of HS arms dropping for signability). The middle-infielders will be the biggest challenge, as both SS and 2B are thin. Still, I think there is the potential to grab at least one, and the goal should be to grab two if the opportunity is there. If not, the fall-back should be a second potential power corner bat. Of course, past pick 1:3, a lot will be determined by what players are available and we should not sacrifice quality simply to try and shoehorn picks from a particular group.

Crawdaddy’s Plan
I largely concur with Stotle's plan. Our system is in need of positional talent. A particular need is the middle infield and center field. As the draft appears to be rolling out, the smart money appears to be on pitching in the first round as opposed to positional talent. Waiting until next time before going too deep into it, I don't really buy into the Manny Machado evaluations that see him as a legit elite talent. The likely path will be focused on pitching in the first round and then seizing on any talent that may slip to rounds three to five due to signability. Although my belief is that you draft according to the talent available, my wants could be described as such:

3 MIF (which will be difficult in a thin class, at least one college level and one HS)
1 HS Catcher
1 Potential CF (college or HS)
4 arms (1-2 LHP college/HS, looking for falling talent)

Assuming that the Orioles draft budget is in the 9-10MM range, what happens in the first round will greatly affect what happens later. For instance, if the first round results in a 7-8MM signing, then the rest of the draft goes for slot. Drafting for slot could hurt our chances of securing any falling talent. I think this may not be all that bad as my feeling right now is that there will be a slightly lower amount of good high risk opportunity in this year's draft as opposed to last year. More than likely, what will happen is that we will be able to secure 4 arms (most or all right handed), 1 MIF, 1 HS catcher, and 3 OFs.

Schedule
Monday (5/31) - Three Suggested Targets (1:3)
Tuesday (6/1) - Three Suggested Targets (3:3)
Wednesday (6/2) - Three Suggested Targets (4:3)
Thursday (6/3) - Three Suggested Targets (5:3)
Friday (6/4) - Quick Hits: Two Targets Each (6:3 - 10:3)

Monday Morning (6/7) - Dream Draft

Reviewing the Class of 2006 International Free Agents: Dominican Republic

This will be the first of several pieces on MLB free agent signings from 2006. I was able to put together a rather comprehensive list of the major signings (28 total). The first part (this current post) will focus on the Dominican Republic. The second will be on Venzuela. The final piece will focus on the rest that I have listed in Pacific and Netherlands.

Dominican Republic

11 players, 19.93MM spent

1. Angel Villalona, 1B, San Francisco Giants
Villalona was a heavily sought after prospect with many of the big players in the DR bidding for his services. He profiled as a bat with plus power and a good hit tool. The Giants, who had been in contact with him since he was 13, was able to secure Villalona for a signing bonus of 2.1MM. It was thought that the Mariners outbid the Giants, but Villalona was loyal to the contacts made with San Francisco. At 16, Villalona was aggressively pushed into rookie ball and short season A ball. He was roughly three years younger than the competition, but was able to perform on level. BA listed him as the 33rd best prospect in baseball. At 17, he played full season A ball, showing plus plus power, but no ability to take a walk. The plate discipline issue was a concern and he fell to 44th. In 2009, he had injury issues and no improvement to his walk rate. He also was arrested for the murder of a man in the DR. The civil part of the trial was settled, but the criminal phase continues. If/when Villalona returns, there are concerns about his plate discipline. It should be considered though that he was quite young for the leagues he was playing in.

2. Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS, Washington Nationals
As everyone probably remembers, Esmailyn Gonzalez was four years older and went by another name. The 1.6MM spent on him was a waste and illuminated some sketchy goings on in the Nationals international scouting department, if not all of baseball. Needless to say, this one did not work out.

3. Carlos Triunfel, SS, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners signed Triunfel for 1.3MM. He is the most successful of the 2006 DR class. He was listed on BA's top 100 prospects prior to 2008 and 2009, but was left off the list this past year as he struggled in a handful of at bats and was lost for the season at AA. He is now starting at SS for AA West Tennessee, but he is filling out and will see a shift over to third base. There is still power potential in his swing, but he needs to be performing at a higher level than he is currently. It may take a while after last year's abbreviated play for him to get back on track. He probably ranks at about a C+ level if he cannot stay at short.

The rest of the DR class after the jump.


4. Francisco Pena, C, New York Mets
The Mets paid three quarters of a million dollars to sign Pena. He is a rather large target behind the plate, but is severely lacking in his footwork. He shows a lot of power in batting practice, but has had difficulty transfer that into games. His main problem is a lack of contact. Last season as a 19yo, he ops'd 588 in HiA. He currently is in extended spring training trying to overcome a foot he fractured in Spring Training.

5. Engel Beltre, OF, Boston Red Sox
Engel Beltre was signed for 600k and was traded a year later to the Rangers in the Eric Gagne deal. As with many of the players, he has been one of the younger players in the leagues he has played in and has shown no ability to take a walk. His second walk through at hiA has resulted in a much higher successful contact rate and a significant reduction in strikeouts. Gap power is there, but he is not well skilled at using his speed on the basepaths. He is a top ten organizational talent.

6. Oscar Tejeda, 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox
Tejada was signed for a half a million dollars. He is currently in HiA ball and may be breaking out this season. His contact rate and his power have suddenly appeared. He has little plate discipline, but a high batting average and above average power could making him a useful utility player or fringe starting 2B.

7. Emmanuel Solis, 3B, Texas Rangers
Solis was also signed for 500k. He displayed plus power and a strong arm. After a season in the DSL, he was promoted to rookie league ball and completely failed. He played DSL a second time as a 19 year old and performed on average. In 2009, he split time between rookie league and short season A ball. He had no success and was released.

8. Carlos Urena, LF/1B, New York Yankees
Urena was paid 350k. He has been unable to achieve any measurable success after three seasons in the DSL. As a 20 year old, he is probably in extended spring training and awaiting a rookie league to begin. If he does not show off his potential this summer, he will probably be released.

9. Robert Rodriguez, RF, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners invested almost 300k in signing Rodriguez. He has not shown much ability in rookie ball. Last year was rough between his 502 ops in rookie ball and testing positive for a performance enhancing drug. He is currently still on roster and serving out a 50 game suspension. If he does not show anything this year, he will probably be released.

10. Damian Taveras, C, New York Yankees
Taveras signed with the Yankees for 200k. Like Rodriguez, he was also caught for using a performance enhancing drug as had to sit out 50 games in 2008. In 2009, he showed remarkable plate discipline and secondary power. He currently is awaiting rookie league ball to begin. He is new to catching and will need a great deal of instruction, but he may be a diamond in the rough for the Yankees. This season will be a better indication of what his abilities may be.

11. Rey Lebron, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Lebron signed as a promising corner outfielder with a plus arm. After two seasons in the DSL, he showed absolutely no talent in making contact with a baseball, so he was converted into a pitcher last season. He logged in 3 quite uneven innings last season and is still undergoing instruction. I do not have any information how successful the transition is currently going.

Summary:
I'll ignore the Gonzalez incident and pretend that Villalona is not on bail. As such, we are looking at 10 prospects who signed for more than 100k coming out of the DR in 2006. Villalona, Triunfel, and Beltre are all capable of playing on level ball at AA while being about 2-3 years younger than the competition. This is impressive, but there comes a point where youth needs to start fulfilling potential and the lag in plate discipline is concerning. Without the ability to take a walk, the margin of safety for a contact oriented approach is rather thin. Any of the three (if Villalona could play) could break out with a giant season and that would not be surprising. Of the other, Oscar Tejeda and Damian Taveras are interesting, but nothing near a sure prospect. Tejeda may establish himself this season if he keeps his offensive performance up. Taveras needs a successful transition to rookie ball. The other five players look to be near lost causes.

Updated Composite Rankings for Draft

Baseball America came out with there rankings, so they are added along with updates from Keith Law, PG Crosschecker, and PNR Scouting. Again, rankings are averaged and are presented along with a standard deviation to show how much agreement is in the placement. As expected, only Bryce Harper's rank agreed upon. Click on the graph to make it larger and more legible.



After the jump, the graph above in a list format.


Top 20
1. Bryce Harper
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Manny Machado
4. Drew Pomeranz
5. Deck McGuire
6. Karsten Whitson
7. Zack Cox
8. Christian Colon
9. AJ Cole
10. Dylan Covey
11. Chris Sale
12. Yasmani Grandal
13. Josh Sale
14. Matt Harvey
15. Kaleb Cowart
16. Brandon Workman
17. Anthony Renaudo
18. Nick Castellanos
19. Michael Choice
20. Bryce Brentz

What is Kevin Millwood Worth?

As has become all too apparent, the Orioles are going nowhere. What is also a given is that Kevin Millwood is unlikely to be offered arbitration as he is is earning 12MM (3 from Texas and 9 from Baltimore) and will not be offered anything near that amount. On the free agent market, he is probably worth about 7-8MM. If the Orioles offered him anything, he would most likely accept and leave the Orioles with a rather large price tag on a declining talent. His place on the squad this year made sense as it has given the rotation another veteran leader . . . and, perhaps more importantly, given the Orioles a dependable arm that can save the bullpen.

In AAA Norfolk, both Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta have performed well enough to audition in the Majors. One being promoted would push David Hernandez back into the relief role for which he is better suited. For the other to get into the rotation, it will require an opening. That might be accomplished by trading Millwood. So, this begs the question . . . what can we get for him?

Looking at deals for pitchers like Joe Blanton and Scott Kazmir, we may be looking at something a little less than the Blanton deal and on par with the Kazmir trade. Millwood is a veteran and performing well, but he is a free agent after the season and is an expensive addition on the short term. So, I think it is possible the Orioles could pull back a B/B- prospect along with a C+/C prospect.

After the jump, who may be in the market and what could they offer that the O's need?


1. Washington Nationals

PECOTA puts the Nationals at a 6% chance of making the playoffs. This ignores any effect Stephen Strasburg could have on the team. Strasburg's addition could potentially add three or so wins over Craig Stammen. The difference in talent is that great between the two. I have their playoff odds increasing to 12% with that move. Strasburg alone puts the Nats in the conversation, but leaves much to chance. Atilano is another pitcher in the rotation that needs to be replaced. Kevin Millwood would provide a major boost to this rotation and be what Jason Marquis was supposed to be. Trading for Millwood would also be a gain of two to three wins over Atilano. That would put the Nats at 19%.

The Nationals have a thin system, but they do have some redundancies. They have seemed to have found a starting SS in Ian Desmond. This could open up AA shortstop Danny Espinosa for being dealt. He certainly can stay at shortstop. He shows good athleticism and his hit tool should be good enough for that position. He has an outside chance of being above average. A second pitcher who could be offered would be someone like RHP Bradley Myers who would be similar to someone like Steve Johnson in our system. Myers' pitches are not special, but he seems to get the job done.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are flailing, but they seem to believe they are a better team than I think they are. The NL West is very competitive, so any addition could make or break a team. PECOTA at this point has them sitting at a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. Millwood filling in would increase the competitiveness of the team by about 2 games. That probably does not help them much. The Orioles could target someone like Brandon Allen here. Allen could immediately step into first base for the Orioles and solve that issue. The Diamondbacks might be able to just stick with Adam LaRoche who has performed well in the desert.

3. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are in dire need for a pitcher to boost their rotation. Homer Bailey needs to heal and probably get some time in AAA. PECOTA has them at 52% making the playoffs. Millwood replacing Bailey would set the Reds at 60%. That would be very beneficial to that club and would probably make it worth it to spend the 4-5MM on Millwood. They do have redundancies where the Orioles need help. The two main names to focus on would be Todd Frazier and Yonder Alonso. Alonso is in AAA right now and could potentially play for the Orioles next year at first. He has a good eye and strong bat . . . he also has major issues hitting left handers. Having both him and Josh Bell in the lineup could spell trouble. Todd Frazier could fill in at third or potentially at second. He has a good eye and should be able to hit in the majors. The Orioles would certainly jump for Alonso, but they could probably make do with Frazier. That said, I think based on the Reds needs . . . Frazier is more of a long term fit for them since they have Joey Votto at first.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

PECOTA has the Dodgers at 54% and I have a Millwood addition giving them a boost to 63%. Money seems tight with the organization, but a one year increase in payroll or if the Orioles throw in some cash . . . they might be able to add Kevin to their roster. The Dodgers have two shortstops in their system. Ivan DeJesus Jr. is considered to be less of a talent than Dee Gordon. He suffered a broken leg last year and lost some development time. He is back in AAA this year. He is probably the piece the Dodgers would be willing to deal in exchange for Millwood.

5. Detroit Tigers

This year the Tigers have Verlander and Bonderman . . . and a bunch of question marks. The addition of Millwood would settle down that rotation and give the Tigers much more stability. That move (~3 wins) would increase PECOTA's prediction of 43% to mine of 59%. The Tigers system has been thinned out over the years with a few uneven drafts and trades, but they do have some parts to offer. Ryan Strieby can play first base and might be an average bat there. He probably is not special and the Tigers have redundancies everywhere he can play. With such a low end pick, he would have to be teamed up with a higher level prospect like Casper Wells or Cody Satterwhite. This probably is not the team the Orioles would want to target.

6. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

LAAA is not a great fit either, but they do believe they have a shot at the playoffs. Replacing Kazmir with Millwood would probably get them a few more games and raise them past the 10% mark. The Angels' system does not match well up with the Orioles, but I could see something based on a solid arm like Trevor Reckling and then accompanied by probable bust Brandon Wood.