Happy Holidays

Unless anything really interesting happens, we'll be back on Monday.

On the Links . . . Chris Lamb, Projected Win Totals

A links post today . . .

Dean Jones relates a scouting report on our new pitcher from Oz.

Chris Lamb (19 years old) was signed a couple weeks ago by the Orioles. He was also being courted by the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs. He posted up good numbers in a mid level Australian league, going 2-1 with a 3.03era. He had a K rate of 14.8 per 9 innings, but also walked 10 per 9. The talent level here is more on par with Bluefield. He was promoted to a league that was on par with Delmarva (single A) and appeared to be overmatched. He struck out about one per inning, but walked about 12 per 9. Baseball is somewhat relaxed over in Australia, so hopefully a more regimented scheduled can improves his conditioning.

Jones relates the Aussie team's assistant GM's comments on Lamb:

He's a skinny kid with a live arm and room to add 10-15 pounds of muscle as he fills out. At times he can get erratic and lose the strike zone, but he also has the ability to get hitters to swing and miss. The coaching staff has been working with him on his release point and repeating his delivery. With consistent work in the [United] States he will have a much better opportunity to refine his mechanics. He currently throws his fastball with late sinking action at 88-90 mph and has topped out at 93. His secondary pitches are a real good curveball that drops off the table and a changeup that he is still developing. The coaches have taught him a cutter that he has started to implement into games as well.

As I had mentioned somewhere, he is seen as a potential LOOGY.

Predicted Wins for the 2010 Season Post-Millwood, Atkins, Gonzalez.

The current projected win totals have been posted by Dempsey's Army, Camden Crazies, and us here at Camden Depot. The win totals are as follows:
Dempsey's Army - 83 wins
Camden Crazies - 76 wins
Camden Depot - 77 wins

Mean +/- SD - 78.7 +/- 3.8 wins

What is Aroldis Chapman Worth?

A week ago Roch Kobatko wrote up his interview with John Stockstill, the Orioles' director of international scouting. He had been present at Aroldis Chapman's workout and communicated that representatives from over 20 teams were present for the workout. It appeared the workout was a sort of resetting the clock with his new agents. The goal being that they wanted to show that Chapman was healthy, in shape, and ready to take his professional career very seriously. At the moment, we are aware that the Red Sox offered 15.5MM several weeks ago and that the Marlins are currently sitting on a 12-13MM bonus offer. Conventional wisdom is that either the Yankees or BoSox will wind up winning his services.

An evaluation of his worth as a prospect and a collection of scouting reports after the jump.

Chapman has played the last four years in Cuba top league. This is a league that has 16 teams while Cuba has a population of roughly 12MM. The competition just is not that strong. I have included in with the stat line an expected MLE that is based on a composite of A ball translations to the pro game. Admittedly, this is a large assumption, but I think it gives a ball park idea about his performance and what level of competition he has faced.

Year G GS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA xFIP xMLE(A)
2006 15 15 54.0 48 33 26 5 54 56 4.52 5.33 9.22
2007 23 12 81.1 59 26 25 4 50 100 2.90 3.22 5.57
2008 16 16 74.0 55 36 32 3 37 79 3.49 3.09 5.35
2009 22 20 118.1 109 56 53 7 62 130 3.19 3.34 5.78

We have Pitch f/x data from his WBC game last spring. It is only one outing, but it does present a decent idea as to where his fastball velocity works. He was able to must pitches at 100 and 102 mph, but his working velocity was 93.5mph. Velocity does not exactly match up with performance, but there does seem to be an indication that increased velocity makes a fastball better (of course). The following charts compares average fastball velocity of the top 33 fastballs in the game from starting pitchers, starting with Ubaldo Jimenez and ending with Luke Hochevar. No attempt was made to look at movement or location, just velocity.



Using the equation presented in the chart from MLB quality pitchers. Chapman's fastball velocity was 93.5mph and his projected runs value would be 0.12 runs saved per 100 fastballs. That means it is an above average pitch is about 10.8% above average for this population of starters. If you prefer BtBS's estimate of 94.6mph after weeding out incorrectly defined pitches, then you are looking at 0.52 runs saved per 100 fastballs or 38% better than the average fastball. A major assumption here (on top of all of the other assumptions) is that pitchers will more of a track record are having their pitches properly identified. Regardless, Chapman throws hard. Throwing hard is good. It remains to be seen if he has or will have Major league quality control. I assume many hard throwers are weeded out.

Here are excerpt from a solid scouting report at Baseball Intellect:

Fastball – Chapman’s fastball is typically clocked in the 93 – 96 range and will occasionally touch 97 – 99. The pitch has tremendous life and carry through the zone with some natural tail. Chapman’s control will vary from start-to-start. On average, his control of the pitch is decent and will often be at least around the strike zone. But commanding the pitch is a different story. Pitching to a right handed hitter, the catcher’s mitt might be positioned on the inside corner and Chapman’s ball will often end up right down the middle.

Curveball – A good change of pace offering with a solid two-plane brake. However, Chapman will sometimes slow his arm down when throwing the pitch. It’s clocked as low as 69 mph, getting as high as 75.

Slider – Chapman’s most effective off-speed offering…I’ve heard the pitch can hit 90, but I’ve only seen it come close to that mark once and I’m still not sure the pitch was a slider. I’ve typically seen his slider in the 79 – 83 range. The pitch has major consistency issues and can rate anywhere from below average to plus.

Change-Up and Cutter – Chapman possesses both a cutter and change-up, neither of which he uses often.

Chapman’s release point is inconsistent and it will vary with each pitch type . . . Chapman has to coordinate a lot of moving parts however, and that will naturally lead to an inability to consistently repeat his mechanics though he has the athleticism to do so.

I think it is a fair assessment that Aroldis Chapman would immediately be a top 50 prospect with his big arm, promising secondary pitches, and for being a southpaw. Using Victor Wang's probability model for assessing prospect worth, he will generate roughly 15-16MM in terms of production. I would argue that having his type of fastball puts him in a higher class and his value should be more around 18-20MM. Velocity transfers better to higher competition than pitchability.

Conclusion
If the Orioles signed Chapman, he would immediately become their second or third best prospect behind Matusz and potentially Arrieta/Britton/Bell depending on your perspective. He would probably start in HiA Frederick though a few games at Delmarva is not entirely out of the question. He will probably be in the majors within 3 years. His upside as a top end starter and low end projection as a middle reliever makes the investment of around 20MM quite fitting.

GM Family Tree Offseason 2010

Knowing Major League Baseball to be the incestuous place that it is, here is the Family Tree for the GMs. For space considerations, I did kind of eliminate a few brief interactions and maybe accidentally omitted larger ones. Resources included Baseball America and my memory. The former is much stronger of a resource than the latter.

Could the Rangers Use Luke Scott?

With Mike Lowell's need for surgery, the Rangers' plans on adding a power bat at the DH slot has been reset. Current options in the market would include players like Vlad Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Jermaine Dye (who they were attached to before the Ramirez-Lowell talks). All three of these players could look to see a one year contract at about 6 to 7MM with potential incentive clauses. None of them are competent in the field any longer and pose health risks.

Here is a tally of their play last year vs what Bill James thinks they are capable of this year:
Guerrero 295/334/460 vs 305/369/508
Dye 250/340/453 vs 261/333/480
Thome 249/366/481 vs 245/374/488

All three look to see around 450 plate appearances. That winds up being production around 1.5 WAR or ~6.5MM, which makes sense as to what they may be able to receive in free agency.

A potential alternative would be a player like Luke Scott. More on Scott being an option after the jump.



Scott is a capable left fielder, he managed to rate as average before being pushed out of the role by the plus defense of Felix Pie and then by the hope attached to Nolan Reimold's ability to learn how to play the outfield. This ability to play in the field gives Scott more flexibility than the other three options and allows for some roster juggling and giving some time off to guys in the field. As a left fielder his worth is around 2 WAR. As a DH, he is worth around 1.5 WAR. So he rates well in comparison to the other hitters.

Last Year vs James' Predictions for this year:
Scott 258/340/488 vs 259/342/486

The benefit of dealing for Scott is that the Rangers would not only own control of him for two more seasons, he will be paid somewhere between 4.5 and 5 MM. This is a savings of 1.5MM. More so if you include his ability to play the field.

What would be fair compensation?

I would imagine what would make most sense to the Rangers and the Orioles would be to deal Scott for Chris Davis. The Rangers are deep in potential 1B players and have a stud in Justin Smoak. Davis has little place on this team. He was having great difficulty swinging the bat last year and strikes out often. He is a high upside prospect who probably will not achieve his potential due to issues with contact rate. The fluctuation in his performance means that a second player should be added to the deal. This would most likely be two grade C+ prospects or three grade C guys.

Proposed trades:
Luke Scott for Chris Davis, Tim Murphy, and Kennil Gomez.

Why would the Orioles want to do this?
Chris Davis provides them with a young, cheap, controlled bat to play first and try to wring long term value there. It enables the Orioles to let Brandon Snyder put more time in at AAA and for the team to use the DH slot to get Pie and Reimold in the same lineup as well as provide a refuge for Matt Wieters to log at bats when he is not catching. Long term, it opens up the possibility for a lefty-righty platoon at first with Snyder and Davis as Snyder pushes his way up.

Tim Murphy adds another polished upper round draft pick arm to the organization. He was a third round pick in 2008 and has struggled in the relatively pitching friendly California league. A switch from the rotation to the pen may show up his ability to be a situational lefty. Kennil Gomez also struggled in the California league, but he shows a much higher potential. He averaged nearly a strikeout an inning, but also exhibited some wildness. Both are long shots at making any significant effect in the Majors.

Why do the Rangers do it?
They are stock with 1B and realy do not need Davis' bat nor are they interested in giving him at bats with the AL West tightening up. The two pitchers mentioned are pretty low in their organization. They have several of more interest to them. This should be a rather easy deal to pull off.

Way-Too-Early Dream Draft

Like many on the East Coast, my wife and I have been kept from our Sunday errands by the massive amounts of snow covering the ground. So, with some down time this afternoon I was left to daydream on the draft. My thoughts eventually brought me to this -- were the draft tomorrow, how would the first ten rounds ideally go down for Baltimore?

I thought about the likelihood of a general draft budget for Joe Jordan to operate under (I kept coming to around $9million -- note that I don't know he's actually given a specific amount). I considered the fact that Baltimore lost it's second round pick when it inked reliever Mike Gonzalez (potentially more money to spread to fewer picks, but fewer picks to bring in talent). And I thought about the players that are draft eligible for this year's Rule 4 draft (this was the easiest, as I'm working on my pre-season positional rankings over at PnRScouting.com and have these talents on my mind quite a bit already). So where did I arrive? At the end of the day, I think there are currently two elite talents in the draft, and if Baltimore has the opportunnity they are best served paying for those talents.

Quick step through my current "dream draft" for the Orioles as of December 2009 after the jump...




1:3 Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS (Texas) -- I think it's highly unlikely Washington passes on Bryce Harper, at this point. That leaves one elite talent in my book, as I have Taillon ahead of other stud prep arms like Cole and Whitson, and college arms such as Ranaudo, McGuire and Pomeranz. Pittsburgh went slot in the first last year to allow for more room to spend later, and my "dream draft" would have them doing it again in 2010. Taillon gives BAL a prep talent with a big league body (6-7/235) and big league stuff right now (his mid-90s fastball and 2-plane power curve could get out big league hitters right now). He'll likely get a large bonus, but if he's around Baltimore takes him in my ideal draft. Estimated Bonus, $5.5million; Total Spent, $5.5million.

2:3 No Pick -- To Braves as compensation for signing Mike Gonzalez. Total Spent: $5.5million.

3:3 Marcus Littlewood, SS, Pineview HS (Utah) -- Littlewood is a switch-hitting prep shortstop with good athleticism and clean actions in the field. He's a good bet to stick at short as one of the steadier fielding shortstops in the prep ranks. He's a strong addition to an organization very weak up-the-middle. Estimated Bonus, $450K (a little over slot); Total Spent, $6.0million.

4:3 Tyler Holt, OF, Florida State Univ. -- Holt has very little in the way of power, but he possesses terrific on-base tools, including an advanced understanding of the strikezone and good speed. There are some questions as to his whether or not his arm and instincts will play in centerfield, but I'm confident they will. He could profile as a top-of-the-order bat with gap power and solid centerfield defense. Estimated Bonus, $375K; Total Spent, $6.38million.

5:3 Nick Pepitone, RHP, Tulane Univ. -- Pepitone is a big-bodied ground ball machine that projects as a bullpen arm. This past summer with Team USA, Pepitone lead the team with an .045 Batting Average Against and a minuscule WHIP of 0.477. He went 14.1 innings pitched over the course of the summer and didn't allow an extra-base hit. Estimated Bonus, $200K, Total Spent, $6.58million.

6:3 AJ Vanegas, RHP, Redwood Christian HS (Calif.) -- Noting I have NO inside knowledge of the matter, Vanegas's commitment to Stanford and strong academic profile could cause him to hold out for top 2-rounds' money in order to convince him to skip his collegiate years. The righty has potential top 60 overall stuff, but the sheer number of talented high school arms in this year's class could cause some teams to shy away from potential tough signs. Ideally, Baltimore finds an arm like this that drops and snatches him up here. Vanegas profiles as a mid-rotation starter with a low-90s fastball and a downer curve effective in and out of the zone. Estimated Bonus, $900K, Total Spent, $7.48million.

7:3 Colin Bates, RHP, Univ. of North Carolina -- Bates spent 2009 in the Tar Heels bullpen but could get a shot at the rotation in 2010 with the loss of Friday starter (Alex White, Indians, 1st Round) and Sunday starter (Adam Warren, Yankees, 4th Round) last June. A 37th-Round selection by Oakland last year, Bates returns as a redshirt junior and will look to potentially raise his value as a starter. He flashes low-90s velocity with some boring action on his fastball and a solid slider. He'll need to show he can maintain his stuff late in a game in order to stick as a starter, but could otherwise be a useful arm in the pen. Estimated Bonus, $200K, Total Spent, $7.68 million.

8:3 Blake Kelso, 2B/SS. Univ. of Houston -- Kelso isn't known for his bat, but he takes to the plate an advanced and controlled approach (walked more than he struck-out last year) and profiles as a solid glove at second base. He has solid speed but needs to improve his reads on the bases to become a threat to steal as a pro. With a couple of over-slot picks earlier, Kelso serves as an inexpensive sign that could add some depth up-the-middle in the minors and potential slot in as a utility guy. Estimated Bonus, $125K, Total Spent, $7.93million.

9:3 Jake Rodriguez, C, Elk Grove HS (CA) -- Rodriguez doesn't profile enough with the bat yet to warrant an early-round selection, though he's one of the better defensive catchers in the prep ranks. He has played on the showcase circuit for some time, and is comfortable handling talented arms -- I grab him here and sell him on the difficulty he faces facilitating his baseball growth at Oregon State with uber-freshman backstop Andrew Susac set to take over as the starting catcher in 2010. Estimated Bonus, $175K, Total Spent, $8.11million.

10:3 Matthew Price, RHP, Virginia Tech (Sophomore) -- Price is a projectable sophomore-eligible righty capable of getting to the low-90s with his fastball and generally sitting upper-70s with his slider. Consistency of stuff will determine how high he's selected in June, but Baltimore should have plenty of coverage with Virginia Tech so close, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Jordan make a selection like this, looking for good value by jumping on a talent before all the pieces have quite clicked. It'll take some extra jingle to sign him away from his last two years at Va. Tech, but there's good upside as Price was roundly considered one of the more intriguing arms on the Cape this summer when throwing his low-90s gas and solid slider out of the pen. As he adds strength, he could gain enough durability to maintain that stuff as a starter. Estimated Cost, $450K; Total Spent, $8.56million.

Summary: If Baltimore were able to sign each of these nine picks, my guess is there is room for at least one significant over-slot signing later on in the draft. As far as the haul described above, Baltimore would have achieved the following:

1. Added a true elite draft talent on par with the likes of Matusz and Wieters (Taillon, 1:3). He's advanced enough to catch-up to the Hobgood/Bundy group likely headed to Delmarva (A) this summer and profiles as a true ace.

2. Added depth up-the-middle with a potential future starter to above-average shortstop in Littlewood (3:3) and a solid second-baseman in Kelso (8:3). It doesn't fix the system, but it chips away at the dearth of middle-infielders. Kelso should sign quickly and could allow Baltimore to take an extra year with Hoes's development at the Delmarva (A)/Frederick (A-Adv.) levels, if needs-be.

3. Jake Hernandez (9:3) slots in as an experienced d-first catcher to climb the system with the talented group of Taillon, Hobgood, Vanegas (6:3) and Bundy.

4. "Safe"ish picks of Holt (4:3)/Pepitone (5:3) should be good bets to provide Major League value with upside of solid regulars, and perhaps more.

5. Bates (7:3)/Price (10:3) represent high-upside picks with some risks. Both could develop into solid starters or provide potential back-end value in the pen with more consistency in their stuff. Each qualifies as a power arm, which I'm always excited to bring into the system.

So, it's way too early for any of these thoughts to matter too much -- some players will get injured, some will raise their stock and others will fall some. But I think there's always value in taking stock of where a draft class currently sits, as well as strategizing as to how best to tap into the collection of talent. In the end, I've passed a couple of hours putting these thoughts down, stayed warm with the snow swirling outside and given you a glimpse into the types of selections I'd like to see Baltimore make come June.

Stay warm; speak to you again, soon!
-NJ