Uehara working on a changeup.
Pitchers often have to adapt as they age or change from one league to another. Koji Uehara is looking to adding a changeup to his pitch selection, which we identified as including 2 fastballs, a slider, and a forkball. This article introduces that he occaisionally threw a shuuto, which is a pitch that is not seen in the US. It is sometimes referred to as a fast, reverse slider. It was famously confused by Will Carroll as the gyroball. For some reason, the shuuto is fairly common in Japan, but pitchers coming over to the states often drop it from their repertoire. For example, Daisuke Matsuzaka threw it over in Japan, but I am at a loss to have ever seen him throw one here in the states. Here is a video of the pitch:
Another interesting point the article makes and focuses on, is that Uehara is trying to "invent" a curveball. He has never committed to throwing one and wants to introduce it this spring. As seen in this photo mentioned in the NPB article, it is a one finger curve. He claims to have had trouble achieving break with both fingers on the ball. The result is a slow slider or hard curve that he has difficulty placing. Should be interesting to get some video from spring training on the guy.
FanGraphs is beginning to incorporate DPs and Outfield Arms into UZR.
I'm not sure how I feel about this yet. I have been trying to determine how predictive UZR can be and was pretty solid on how to approximate future performance. I guess I just think the work on double plays and outfield arm performance is a bit green to be encapsulated into a larger metric. I do give respect though for the folks at FanGraphs that they do report the numbers separately. It will be something that I will pay attention to and will tinker with. For fun, Orioles infield and outfield UZR/150 from 2008:
1B - Aubrey Huff (-14.8 UZR/150)
2B - Brian Roberts (-3.1; -17.9 cumulative)
3B - Melvin Mora (-5.2; -23.1)
SS - Cesar Izturis (10.5; -12.6)
LF - Feliz Pie (9.2 career; -3.4)
CF - Adam Jones (12.2; 8.8)
RF - Nick Markakis (9.3; 18.1)
So, if the players defend like they did last year according to this metric . . . we can expect the team to be in the black by 18 runs. That is almost two games worth. Major improvements were at shortstop and left field. First base is hurt defensively with Huff being there. Maybe Wigginton is better suited.
13 February 2009
12 February 2009
PECOTA Wieters, Batted Balls, and Amateur Competition Rankings
Matt Wieters for MVP
PECOTA thinks Wieters is the best player in the American League. Oh, MLEs.
More than you wanted to know about ground balls and shifts.
The Tufts group looked at left handed batters from 2002 to 2008. From this group, they looked at the probability of hitting a ground ball out as opposed to a ground ball hit. They also looked at when a shift is implemented on a player. What they found that is interesting is that how much a left handed batter pulls a grounder is not the most significant variable in determining if a shift is called. Instead, it is based on homeruns per flyball and groundball to flyball ratio. Why? Managers shift their infield in order to take advantage of big bodied power hitters grounding toward the first base side. The batter is slow enough that the second baseman in shallow right can still make the throw. This study suggests that managers may be implementing a right field shift without contemplating if a batter even pulls his grounders. Leaves one thinking that even with respect to the limited value of a shift, it is being squandered.
A few days late, but good Division I strength scores.
The Hardball Times published a Sackman piece of the relative strength of different conferences in Division I baseball. Here is a cherry picked Orioles-style top six:
1. 0.648 Atlantic Coast Conference (Matt Wieters)
4. 0.631 Big 12 Conference (Rick Zagone)
8. 0.539 West Coast Conference (Brian Matusz)
12. 0.513 Big Ten Conference (Kyle Hudson)
16. 0.488 Mountain West (Jake Arrieta)
29. 0.334 Independent (Oliver Drake)
Finally, BtBS did what I squirrelled away and forgot.
Throwing side arm did not work for Brian Burres at all.
PECOTA thinks Wieters is the best player in the American League. Oh, MLEs.
More than you wanted to know about ground balls and shifts.
The Tufts group looked at left handed batters from 2002 to 2008. From this group, they looked at the probability of hitting a ground ball out as opposed to a ground ball hit. They also looked at when a shift is implemented on a player. What they found that is interesting is that how much a left handed batter pulls a grounder is not the most significant variable in determining if a shift is called. Instead, it is based on homeruns per flyball and groundball to flyball ratio. Why? Managers shift their infield in order to take advantage of big bodied power hitters grounding toward the first base side. The batter is slow enough that the second baseman in shallow right can still make the throw. This study suggests that managers may be implementing a right field shift without contemplating if a batter even pulls his grounders. Leaves one thinking that even with respect to the limited value of a shift, it is being squandered.
A few days late, but good Division I strength scores.
The Hardball Times published a Sackman piece of the relative strength of different conferences in Division I baseball. Here is a cherry picked Orioles-style top six:
1. 0.648 Atlantic Coast Conference (Matt Wieters)
4. 0.631 Big 12 Conference (Rick Zagone)
8. 0.539 West Coast Conference (Brian Matusz)
12. 0.513 Big Ten Conference (Kyle Hudson)
16. 0.488 Mountain West (Jake Arrieta)
29. 0.334 Independent (Oliver Drake)
Finally, BtBS did what I squirrelled away and forgot.
Throwing side arm did not work for Brian Burres at all.
21 pitches
10 hitters
15 at bats
12 balls
1 called strike
1 swinging strike
3 foul balls
1 ground out
2 singles
1 home run
11 February 2009
On the links . . .
A few more links this morning . . .
How an increase in ability can result in a decrease in performance.
Orioles Hangout has published an article by one of their in house writers, Ted Cook. The focus is on Nick Markakis and about how projection models are often suggesting that his performance will decrease due to a rather fantastic BABIP last year (.351). It would follow suit that a BABIP regression may result, which in turn would lower his production even though it would be an improvement if his BABIP were normal last year. It would be a faux slump, ability-wise. His conclusion reads as if it was based on his gut after all of this focus on modeling as Cook claims that we will actually see an increase in performance due to a lower K rate. I'm not sure where he is getting that. It seems that he might be unaware of any of the pitch ID information out there as he also seems for a loss on why Markakis saw a significant increase in his walk rate. It is an interesting exercise though.
Potential Abreu signing might eventually mean something for Baltimore.
With the removal of future journayman middle relief RHP Nick Green from the 40 man roster, we might be able to expect the Abreu rumors are about to end with him signing with the Halos. It is thought his signing will mean he will be wandering in left field as well as logging time at DH. He could also spell Vlad sometimes in right. That being said, this probably cements Chone Figgins at third base and Kendry Morales at first base. How does this play into the Orioles' hand? The Angels will probably find themselves in a fight with the A's for the western crown and will need a pick me up from, what I imagine will be, some poor offensive play from Morales. I think this will push the Angels into the market for a first baseman, again. That market will be sure to include Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Dmitri Young, Chad Tracy, Adam LaRoche, and Aubrey Huff. The Angels probably would not commit themselves to another big deal like last year's Teixeira trade, so I imagine that would eliminate Gonzalez and Fielder from their list. This may put the O's and probably the Pirates in good position to pick up one of LAA's neglected prospects, Sean Rodriguez or Brandon Wood. That might be a deal one sees in July.
Keith Law on tap for the second day in a row.
He comments on what makes the Rangers system special at the moment:
This is important in how it relates to the Orioles in that this is what MacPhail's new dedication to the international market may help bring. That the Rangers have already made one of their strategies evident makes me doubt the Orioles could take advantage of trades like the Rangers did, but this quest to become more aware of the Latin and Pacific Rim talent base will hopefully bring them to equal footing. Nothing the Orioles do is particularly novel, but maybe they will follow the leader and make their upper mid-level revenue flow work for them.
Finally, some sad news about Roberto Alomar
If the lawsuit is to some extent correct, it appears Roberto Alomar has AIDS and might have be rather negligent is seeking proper medical care. Sadly, this disease is something that has kind of moved to the back burner of the American conscious . . . often only covered with respect to inner city dynamics, Africa, and Southeast Asia on mainstream news outlets. This disease has been in the human population from sometime between 1884 and 1924 around the Belgian Congo based on a 2008 study published in Science. Most likely, the disease entered into Latin America and the United States in the late 1950s when Haitian populations immigrated between their home country and work opportunities in North America and Africa. The disease slowly entered the international conscious as peculiar cases popped up in France and coastal US cities.
Erroneously thought of by layman as a disease afflicting homosexuals (originally referred to as GRIDS - Gay Related Immunodeficiency Syndrome), the disease was poorly funded for research. This partially caused the relatively widespread infection of the blood reserves in the United States and the subsequent spread of AIDS via blood transfusion (90% of severe hemophiliacs contracted AIDS due to infected blood). This brought us into the late 80s and 90s, where safe sex became more entrenched. Now, it seems that has somewhat dissipated. With the success of drug cocktails, differences in symptoms between viral strains, and other factors; many HIV-infected individuals are living for much longer periods of time. Some now even seem to think that this disease has been cured. With Alomar's potential reemergence into the spotlight as someone suffering from AIDS, maybe information about this disease will saturate again.
Perhaps indicative of individuals still lacking understanding of the disease, the lawsuit mentions:
That would be 1985. It would be remarkable if he was infected in 1985 and did not register symptoms until 18-20 years later. More likely, his infection probably occurred between 1994 and 1998 if it was a typical case. This would be toward the end of his time in Toronto and during his stay with the Orioles. Of course, it is near impossible to determine with any certainty how this disease acts. Our thoughts and prayers are extended to the Alomar family and those he has known over the years.
How an increase in ability can result in a decrease in performance.
Orioles Hangout has published an article by one of their in house writers, Ted Cook. The focus is on Nick Markakis and about how projection models are often suggesting that his performance will decrease due to a rather fantastic BABIP last year (.351). It would follow suit that a BABIP regression may result, which in turn would lower his production even though it would be an improvement if his BABIP were normal last year. It would be a faux slump, ability-wise. His conclusion reads as if it was based on his gut after all of this focus on modeling as Cook claims that we will actually see an increase in performance due to a lower K rate. I'm not sure where he is getting that. It seems that he might be unaware of any of the pitch ID information out there as he also seems for a loss on why Markakis saw a significant increase in his walk rate. It is an interesting exercise though.
Potential Abreu signing might eventually mean something for Baltimore.
With the removal of future journayman middle relief RHP Nick Green from the 40 man roster, we might be able to expect the Abreu rumors are about to end with him signing with the Halos. It is thought his signing will mean he will be wandering in left field as well as logging time at DH. He could also spell Vlad sometimes in right. That being said, this probably cements Chone Figgins at third base and Kendry Morales at first base. How does this play into the Orioles' hand? The Angels will probably find themselves in a fight with the A's for the western crown and will need a pick me up from, what I imagine will be, some poor offensive play from Morales. I think this will push the Angels into the market for a first baseman, again. That market will be sure to include Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Dmitri Young, Chad Tracy, Adam LaRoche, and Aubrey Huff. The Angels probably would not commit themselves to another big deal like last year's Teixeira trade, so I imagine that would eliminate Gonzalez and Fielder from their list. This may put the O's and probably the Pirates in good position to pick up one of LAA's neglected prospects, Sean Rodriguez or Brandon Wood. That might be a deal one sees in July.
Keith Law on tap for the second day in a row.
He comments on what makes the Rangers system special at the moment:
They have integrated their scouting and evaluation across all areas -- draft, international, pro -- better than any team in baseball. They were the first team to target Latin American signees as throw-ins in trades while those players were still in short-season ball, often within a year of their original signing dates. You can't do that unless your international scouting department is talking to pro scouting and to the GM, or unless the information is all readily accessible to the GM when he's conducting the negotiations. In a league where the best teams are increasingly the best-run teams (Boston, Tampa Bay), staying ahead of the operational curve is obligatory.
This is important in how it relates to the Orioles in that this is what MacPhail's new dedication to the international market may help bring. That the Rangers have already made one of their strategies evident makes me doubt the Orioles could take advantage of trades like the Rangers did, but this quest to become more aware of the Latin and Pacific Rim talent base will hopefully bring them to equal footing. Nothing the Orioles do is particularly novel, but maybe they will follow the leader and make their upper mid-level revenue flow work for them.
Finally, some sad news about Roberto Alomar
If the lawsuit is to some extent correct, it appears Roberto Alomar has AIDS and might have be rather negligent is seeking proper medical care. Sadly, this disease is something that has kind of moved to the back burner of the American conscious . . . often only covered with respect to inner city dynamics, Africa, and Southeast Asia on mainstream news outlets. This disease has been in the human population from sometime between 1884 and 1924 around the Belgian Congo based on a 2008 study published in Science. Most likely, the disease entered into Latin America and the United States in the late 1950s when Haitian populations immigrated between their home country and work opportunities in North America and Africa. The disease slowly entered the international conscious as peculiar cases popped up in France and coastal US cities.
Erroneously thought of by layman as a disease afflicting homosexuals (originally referred to as GRIDS - Gay Related Immunodeficiency Syndrome), the disease was poorly funded for research. This partially caused the relatively widespread infection of the blood reserves in the United States and the subsequent spread of AIDS via blood transfusion (90% of severe hemophiliacs contracted AIDS due to infected blood). This brought us into the late 80s and 90s, where safe sex became more entrenched. Now, it seems that has somewhat dissipated. With the success of drug cocktails, differences in symptoms between viral strains, and other factors; many HIV-infected individuals are living for much longer periods of time. Some now even seem to think that this disease has been cured. With Alomar's potential reemergence into the spotlight as someone suffering from AIDS, maybe information about this disease will saturate again.
Perhaps indicative of individuals still lacking understanding of the disease, the lawsuit mentions:
In April 2005, Alomar told Dall he was suffering from erectile dysfunction and confided "he was raped by two Mexican men after playing a ballgame in New Mexico or a Southwestern state when he was 17," the suit says.
That would be 1985. It would be remarkable if he was infected in 1985 and did not register symptoms until 18-20 years later. More likely, his infection probably occurred between 1994 and 1998 if it was a typical case. This would be toward the end of his time in Toronto and during his stay with the Orioles. Of course, it is near impossible to determine with any certainty how this disease acts. Our thoughts and prayers are extended to the Alomar family and those he has known over the years.
10 February 2009
On the links . . .
Camden Depot - New York Yankees prospect list
Here at the Depot, we (primarily Nick) has issued the Yankees prospect list as the 9th organizational prospect report. Of particular interest to many Yankee fans is the dark horse centerfield candidate Austin Jackson:
Keith Law Reports from the Southern California Invitational
Law mentions a few players we have mentioned before. Kieth breaks down SS Jiovanni Mier (CD's 8th ranked SS; 10/15/08) as a good defender who short on power. OF Jacob Marisnick (5th ranked OF; 11/11/08) was identified by us as being the best defensive outfielder available in this year's draft whereas Keith mention only his offensive capability in his notes. Marisnick has added some muscle and has improved his swing. Several other players are also mentioned Matt Davidson, Bryan Berglund, Tyler Skaggs, Jonathan Meyer, Matt Hobgood, Austin Wilson, and Beau Wright. Potential Orioles selection Tyler Matzek did not appear and is limiting his pitching to about 2 innings.
Minor League Roster News from Baseball America
Some notable names going through minor league transactions. LHP John Parrish is returning to the Orioles after spending last season as a starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. The hope for him being that he will be part of the revolving door that is sure to be the back end of the Orioles' rotation. Daryle Ward and Jacque Jones were signed by the Reds, which makes sense for their need of more power hitting and Dusty Baker's presence. Tanyon Sturtze is trying to make a comeback with the Dodgers, which may be a bad idea as they seem to have a pretty thick collection of bullpen arms at the moment. Sturze's starting days are most likely over. Eddie Guardado is a Rangers and Ken Takahashi signed with the Blue Jays. A potential favorite to win a role with the Nationals' big league club is Javier Valentin who will try to move his way up their meager catching depth chart.
Question/Comments?
Email us at camdendepot@gmail.com
Here at the Depot, we (primarily Nick) has issued the Yankees prospect list as the 9th organizational prospect report. Of particular interest to many Yankee fans is the dark horse centerfield candidate Austin Jackson:
The plus-defender continued to creep closer to the bigs in 2008, despite an August-to-forget in which he saw his strikeout-rate rise and his walk-rate drastically decrease. Because he has just average bat-speed, Jackson will need to continue to refine his pitch-ID and strikezone command in order to have continued success at AAA and above. In addition to making pitch-ID a tad more challenging, his average bat speed will likely prevent him from developing more than average power. While his offensive upside is somewhat limited at this point, Jackson has true game-changing potential in the field. He has solid range in center field and tracks the ball well to both gaps. More than capable of covering above-average ground, Jackson profiles as a plus-defender up-the-middle with the potential to be an average producer at the plate. He’ll likely start in AAA Scranton and could get a call as early as mid-season in 2009.
Keith Law Reports from the Southern California Invitational
Law mentions a few players we have mentioned before. Kieth breaks down SS Jiovanni Mier (CD's 8th ranked SS; 10/15/08) as a good defender who short on power. OF Jacob Marisnick (5th ranked OF; 11/11/08) was identified by us as being the best defensive outfielder available in this year's draft whereas Keith mention only his offensive capability in his notes. Marisnick has added some muscle and has improved his swing. Several other players are also mentioned Matt Davidson, Bryan Berglund, Tyler Skaggs, Jonathan Meyer, Matt Hobgood, Austin Wilson, and Beau Wright. Potential Orioles selection Tyler Matzek did not appear and is limiting his pitching to about 2 innings.
Minor League Roster News from Baseball America
Some notable names going through minor league transactions. LHP John Parrish is returning to the Orioles after spending last season as a starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. The hope for him being that he will be part of the revolving door that is sure to be the back end of the Orioles' rotation. Daryle Ward and Jacque Jones were signed by the Reds, which makes sense for their need of more power hitting and Dusty Baker's presence. Tanyon Sturtze is trying to make a comeback with the Dodgers, which may be a bad idea as they seem to have a pretty thick collection of bullpen arms at the moment. Sturze's starting days are most likely over. Eddie Guardado is a Rangers and Ken Takahashi signed with the Blue Jays. A potential favorite to win a role with the Nationals' big league club is Javier Valentin who will try to move his way up their meager catching depth chart.
Question/Comments?
Email us at camdendepot@gmail.com
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