Tylenol is a PED?

Ibupropherin appears to cause potential PED effect in geriatric patients:

Taking daily recommended dosages of ibuprofen and acetaminophen caused a substantially greater increase over placebo in the amount of quadriceps muscle mass and muscle strength gained during three months of regular weight lifting, in a study by physiologists at the Human Performance Laboratory, Ball State University.

Thirty-six men and women, between 60 and 78 years of age (average age 65), were randomly assigned to daily dosages of either ibuprofen (such as that in Advil), acetaminophen (such as that in Tylenol), or a placebo. The dosages were identical to those recommended by the manufacturers and were selected to most closely mimic what chronic users of these medicines were likely to be taking . . . All subjects participated in three months of weight training, 15-20 minute sessions conducted in the Human Performance Laboratory three times per week. The researchers knew from their own and other studies that training at this intensity and for this time period would significantly increase muscle mass and strength. They expected the placebo group to show such increases, as its members did, but they were surprised to find that the groups using either ibuprofen or acetaminophen did even better . . . Over three months, says Dr. Trappe, the chronic consumption of ibuprofen or acetaminophen during resistance training appears to have induced intramuscular changes that enhance the metabolic response to resistance exercise, allowing the body to add substantially more new protein to muscle . . . One of the foci of Ball State’s Human Performance Laboratory is the adaptation of the elderly to exercise. Another is the loss of muscle mass that takes place when astronauts are exposed to long-term weightlessness. This work has implications for both groups, says Dr. Trappe.

So where is the line?

What qualifies as a performance enhancing drug?

Now, we would all agree that steroids and hGH (though not enough evidence has come forward to show that hGH does anything to improve performance . . . really we have one, not repeated, study that is unpublished) belong on that list, but what about these:

amphetamines (many would say yes)
cortizone shots
any pain relief medication (tylenol to codeine)
sleeping pills
oxygen (hyperbolic chambers)
protein shakes
etc.

The truth is that everyday things would increase performance. Tylenol has been shown to increase muscle mass in one population (this is actually more evidence than we have for hGH) So what criteria should be used?

The only thing I can think of, and perhaps others will enlighten me, is that PEDs are pretty much a misnomer. In fact, what is meant is actually illegal and illegally-obtained drugs are what is illegal. This would mean that what is being referred to as "PEDs" are not cheating, rather they are punishable because the players are violating the common law. Of course, punishment is greater for using steroids instead of cocaine. The idea being that steroids help with performance and are illegal. So what with drugs that assist in performance, but are legal? Add to that that the powers that be make claims that certain substances are performance enhancing when there is no conclusive proof of it. A system that punishes based on the illegality of the drug would make more sense because we lack so much knowledge and have accumulated so much misinformation about "PEDs."

What we are left with is a punishment system in baseball that is just knee-jerky. There is no rhyme or reason to what is banned and how punishments are carried out except to court public and congressional opinion. This irritates me because it would be so simple to put forward consistent and stable drug abuse guidelines. Now, I am not writing that steroids should be legal and free for use. I am writing that though the system gets some things right, it uses haphazardly conditional statements that are often contradictory. This is a brave new world.

Scott Moore vs the Defensive Spectrum

Scott Moore officially began his attempt to swim against the current last night.

Moore fielded two ground balls cleanly but was unable to come up with Michael Young's hard grounder in the third inning.

Moore was pinch hit for at the top of the seventh in hope of pushing the game into the win column. All in all, not that bad of a first game at second base. He was fairly competent out there, but did not seem to field as well as Brian Roberts, who can be kindly said as being slightly above average as a defender. So, switching from third base to second base. What is Moore up against?

The venerable Bill James.

Back in the 80s, James devised the defensive spectrum. The defensive spectrum suggests that there is a hierarchy of skill associated to each position. The order is as follows from most skill to least skill:

Catcher
Shortstop
Second Base
Centerfield
Third Base
Rightfield
Leftfield
First Base

The thought is that it is quite difficult to move up. If a shift in defensive position occurs, then it will be downward. That is not to say that any shift downward will be successful. We can all remember Jay Gibbons and Javy Lopez. They shifted downward and could not be competent at 1B. Some skill sets that are advantageous for one position may not be useful to another and vice versa. For instance, I imagine it would be rare for a catcher to be able to successfully convert to being a centerfielder. It has been done (i.e., Biggio), but it is rare. I cannot think of a single instance where a centerfielder became a successful catcher (someone want to doublecheck that?).

There is something unspoken about the defensive spectrum. The indirect effects on offense. As defense becomes a premium, a lesser level of offense is tolerated. Luis Hernandez had a slight chance of being called to the majors as a light hitting defensive wiz at shortstop. If you shift him to first and have his glove anointed by St. Peter, yet keep his bat the same . . . he would be riding the pine in Quibor. To this extent, even if Javy and Jay could have played first base . . . they would have been relatively worthless as firstbasemen in terms of offensive production. In 2007, the defensive spectrum had OPS+ as follows:

Catcher (88 OPS+)
Shortstop (88 OPS+)
Second Base (99 OPS+)
Centerfield (98 OPS+)
Third Base (100 OPS+)
Rightfield (116 OPS+)
Leftfield (100 OPS+)
First Base (108 OPS+)

This line of thinking remains relatively true. I imagine if you combine several seasons together it would wash out that bottom end. Last year seems to have been an amazing success for right fielders. In 2006, that bottom three slots were 110, 105, and 111 collectively. I doubt that LF has become more difficult to defend and imagine that LF has now become a spot to just throw people who have no real position. Typically, these guys would be on the bench or at DH. It is becoming more and more common though to have a full time DH. It is also becoming more common to throw your mistake free agent purchases in LF (read: Jay Payton). Right field is so important defensively on extra base hits that you cannot simply hide people there and Magglio Ordonez and Vladimir Guerrero help push things up offensively. Another interesting thing is how second base has become more and more of an offensive position over recent years with the emergence of guys like Robinson Cano and Brian Roberts.

So what about Moore?

Traditionally, his bat would make him more valuable at second base than third base. However, more and more production is coming from that position. The question is it because traditional secondbasemen are developing more power OR defensive ability is now being downplayed at the position (did Soriano and the Yanks start this?). I would have to think it would be the latter. Fringe guys who should be in left field or third base are being put at second to get more production from that position. Moore's background as an amateur SS should help him somewhat, but playing middle infield several years ago at a lower competition level and learning second base in the majors is quite different. His body shape has also changed. He is still quite athletic and people tend to think he could be passable at second . . . he is a more natural thirdbaseman at this point in his career.

I figure as soon as Mora leaves, he will shift back. The only way he can stay at second base would be that his hitting develops to the point that his defense is not considered as much of a liability. In simple OPS+ terms, he needs to do about 115 . . . which is about where Brian Roberts is. At third base, he can be a viable major leaguer if he can hit consistently around 100-105. I would think if he dips below either of these, he is not helping the team. If he can hit these consistently, then he can probably be a fringe starter until age 30. In the former case (115 OPS+), he would need to be switched to a less demanding position. In the latter case (105 OPS+), he needs to find a comfortable place on the bench or in the stands. I like him. I wouldn't give up on him, but I would not expect him to ever be considered one of the best at his position. Someone like Todd Walker would be the best I would hope for.

And, I am heading out of Camden Depot for the weekend.

A Scott Moore Obsession?
Go here.

24-Sided Die Determines Season

Batting performance is often simplified by people new to sabermetrics as OPS. Others take that a step further and define things by OBP and SLG. These numbers are used to describe the worth of a batter generically. They fail to recognize that batting position also plays a part in run production. Certain skills are often put to better use in certain positions. A simple analysis of this was done by Cyril Morong. He used raw data from 1988-2002 and determined the value of OBP and SLG by position in the batting order. It should be noted though that OBP and SLG are also rather generic, but it is the best data I have. Of course, hit-derived OBP is worth more than walk derived OBP except in extreme chances. Anyway, from these numbers we can determine how well the Orioles are likely to do based on their lineup and projections from ZiPS.

Assumptions
1. The starting nine players will play every inning of the entire season.
2. The starting pitchers will remain the starting pitchers over the course of the season and average 6 innings per start, equally.
3. The bullpen will be league average.
These are rather prominent assumptions, but I frankly do not care to go deeper into it.

We will compare two lineups. The most common one employed by Trembley along with the ideal lineup based on Morong's formula. Each lineup will be compared to the runs expected in the pitching performance. The run tallies will be converted into wins and losses by the pythagorean theorem.

Results

Pitching
ZiPS is not high on the Orioles pitching and assigns ERAs to them as such: Loewen 4.55, Cabrera 4.85, Guthrie 4.84, Traschel 5.20, and Burress 6.12. With each averaging 194.1 IP at an ERA of 5.11 and a bullpen with a 4.35 ERA, the team will give up 4.86 runs per game. That comes to 787 runs. I am ignoring unearned runs, which makes this an optimistic projection.

Trembley's Lineup
Trembley's typical lineup so far has been Roberts, Mora, Markakis, Millar, Huff, Scott, R Hernandez, Jones, and L Hernandez. This lineup should be weak with regard to underutilizing the top of the order by have Luis Hernandez bat last as well as having Millar and his lack of power in the 4 hole. This lineup is predicted to average 4.86 runs per game and a total of 788 runs scored. That results in a record of 81-81.

Ideal Lineup
The ideal lineup as defined by Morong's formula would be Roberts, Markakis, Huff, Jones, Scott, R Hernandez, Mora, L Hernandez, and Millar. Millar bats last to take advantage of his OBP as well as lessening the damage from his projected lack of power. This lineup brings in a predicted 5.07 runs per game and a total of 821 runs. This results in a 84-78 record.

Discussion
I'm not sure this exercise accomplished much, but it does kind of show what can be expected if many things broke our way offensively. It is likely that any backups to our starters would result in a significant decrease in offensive production (oh, wait, Luis, I didn't mean your projected offense). So, in a way . . . this projection should cover the event that several players outperform their expected production level. In a conservative sense, I would probably decrease offensive production by about 10% to account for days our main offensive players take off. Doing that would result in a Trembley lineup record of 71-91. This looks pretty accurate based on what most projection systems use with playing time considered.

I think the best case scenario would be if the offense improves 10% of what should be expected (787 runs) and the pitching improves 10% of what is expected (720 runs). In this scenario we would have an 88-74 record. I think expecting anything more than that would be tragically optimistic. I think to expect 88 wins is tragically optimistic. Probably expecting 81 wins would be inadvisable. Anyway, that is that. On the flip side, 10% decreased performance on each side would result in a 58-104 record. Expecting anything close to that would also be inadvisable.

Further Reading
Frost King Baseball did a quick study back in mid-March, apparently. It is a slightly more optimistic appraisal of the Orioles offense. The site uses a standard base runs method to determine runs scored.

Is a Starting Pitcher more valuable than a Cleanup Hitter?

Yesterday and today, there was a conversation over at the Sun's Oriole message board. The issue was whether it was better to have an ace pitcher or a cleanup hitter. On of the courses of argument led to whether a pitcher or a batter had more opportunity to effect a game. A pitcher averages roughly 25 batters a game and pitches every fifth day while a cleanup hitter typically average about 22.5 at bats every 5 days. To do a rough estimate as to the value each has, I chose to look at Jeremy Guthrie's April, 6, 2008 start and Millar's starts from March 31 to April 6, 2008. Guthrie threw to 27 batters and Millar had 21 at bats, so compared to the average . . . Guthrie has roughly 3 more at bats than he should over Millar. I will also compare the two, if Guthrie did not have that advantage.

Methods
At Bat Valuation
I am using an expected runs table. I will add up each at bat and come up with a total expected runs number, which will roughly relate to the opportunity inherent in each at bat for production. I will also calculate expected runs per at bat. These calculations will be done for the raw data and the adjusted data (which removes the expected runs attributed to three average at bats). The raw data for the games can be found here.

Assumptions
Guthrie's total expected runs are normal and not a product of his pitching success during the game in question.
Millar's opportunities are also normal.
Neither of these assumptions have been tested.

Results
Raw Data
The raw data shows that Guthrie's 27 at bats resulted in 10.16 expected runs. Millar's 21 at bats resulted in 10.78 expected runs. Millar's numbers showed a 6.04% increase in value over Guthrie's. The average value of a Guthrie at bat was 0.376 expected runs, while our cleanup hitter's average at bat was worth 0.513 expected runs (36% greater in value).

Adjusted Data
If you remove three average at bats from Guthrie's totals, his total is reduced to 9.04 and Millar's value is now 19.3% more. If you shorten Guthrie's rest to four days and assume everything else stays the same . . . his adjusted four day production is 5% more valuable than Millar's opportunities over four days.

Discussion
Based on the results of this study, the Orioles cleanup hitter had a greater effect on the team's success over five days than their ace pitcher. When the at bats were adjusted to league averages, the cleanup hitter's worth was 19.3% more than the starting pitcher's worth. This would agree with final VORP totals for hitters and pitchers in years past. For instance, in 2007 Arod had a VORP of 96.6 and Jake Peavy had a VORP of 77. Arod's number is 25% higher. Now VORP is not going to correlate with expected runs on a 1 to 1 basis as they do not exactly measure the same thing, but it definately gives credence to the idea that hitters have more opportunities to help a team than a fifth day starter. Simply put, it is in the ballpark.

Conclusion
A star pitcher seems to be less valuable than a star hitter if the pitcher is on a five man pitching staff. He seems to be slightly more valuable than a star hitter, if he pitches on three days rest instead of four. This suggests that hitting may win division pennants and wild cards, but pitching wins in the playoffs. This might explain why teams so well suited for the regular season may flounder in the post-season. Who knows? When teams face each other in the post-season you typically have clubs that differ in winning percentage less than 0.02. You cannot figure out who is better in a five or seven game series when the difference you are trying to discern is so slight.

Discussion over at the Sun Orioles message board.

Jaffe predicts O's get Bonds

On Jay Jaffe's blog, he predicts that Barry Bonds will sign with the Orioles on July 1st. I guess the immediate question would be: why? What really would make Barry and the Orioles a good fit for a July 1st signing?

Now, Barry is a DH. He just isn't a left fielder anymore with his knees and hammies. So, with whom does he conflict?
Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff, Nolan Reimold, Scott Moore.

What needs to happen?
1. Millar and Huff would have to be dealt with Moore taking over 1st, Bonds at DH, and Reimold struggling in the minors.
2. Millar and/or Huff would need to be dealt with Bonds at DH, Moore as a utility man or at 2B, and Reimold struggling.

What will happen?
Millar is dealt. Huff and Moore share 1b. Huff and Scott share DH. Scott and Reimold share LF. Bonds signs with a team that is actually competing for a playoff spot.

Where does Bonds go?
Detroit. To share time with Sheffield at DH and to spell Jacque Jones in LF against left handed pitchers. Jones is so awful against southpaws that I can imagine Jim Leyland would put up with Barry and Cabrera killing their defense on the left side. Add in a healthy Granderson and you have some help out there for Barry.

Performance Enhancing Drugs and Sports Illustrated

Over at CosellOut, they have done a great job of linking to all of the stories about PEDs in Sports Illustrated starting 1969. Bill Gilbert wrote a three part series on drug use in the summer of '69. The second part focuses on baseball and is a must read. The first hGH article is printed in 1984. This should not be considered a full history.

So you are saying there is still a chance?

The Orioles have put together a string of five thrilling, incredible, unlikely games. If their strategy is to win every game from behind and by one run, they might become disappointed really fast. The season, so far, has been characterized by an above average offense, a solid bullpen, and a poor starting rotation. We are 5-1 . . . so what are our postseason chances after 6 games according to the PECOTA and ELO projections?

PECOTA
66.4 wins
0.85% AL East Champions
1.25% Wild Card
2.10% Playoffs

ELO
77.2 wins
7.26% AL East Champions
5.76% Wild Card
12.02% Playoffs

Note: ELO is a ranking-based projection system.

Today's Links

Pedro Alvarez Has Some Demands

Kiley McDaniel of SaberScouting (easily becoming one of my favorite sources) says that Boras is saying that he wants 9.5MM for Pedro and that this is about 3MM too much. It is basically Boras being Boras.

Bill Ordine Has Ideas About Building a Franchise


I'm not sure this concept of a erecting a mast really works for a baseball team. I am not sure how hockey teams function. My knowledge of that sport is rooted in EA Sports NHL '94 and, to this day, I am confused as to why players do not skate diagonally and then cross back 5 ft from the goals and shoot high and out. I scored like 40 goals with 5 minute periods once.

Anyway, can anyone think as to when a baseball team signed a single All Star and then became relevant? Sounds like the Rangers with Arod and that didn't help them out much. The point is that most team sports (and I assume hockey is more like baseball and football than basketball) depend on more than one guy. We all tend to love the single man theory of history. We like to attribute everything to one person. It makes for a more gripping as well as convenient narrative, but it is often not true.

So how do I think a baseball team has to be made (in order of importance)?
1. Deep farm system
2. Average player development
3. Retention of key personal
4. Supplement roster with free agents and trades

I think it is pointless to do the latter if you cannot accomplish what is listed before. If you do . . . you will not sustain your ability to compete.

A Tale of Two Pitchers

Weather permitting, today's matchup pits Daniel Cabrera against Carlos Silva. Both are international signings, who are merely 2 years apart. Both are amazingly average pitchers with Silva showing the extremes more on a season to season scale where Cabrera illustrates the extremes on a game to game scale. The main difference is that Cabrera strikes out quite a few batters and walks quite a few. Silva does neither. Case in point, Silva's 2005 season consisted of 188.1 major league innings and 9 walks. 9. On April 12, 2006, Cabrera walked 9 Devil Rays in 5 innings of work. These guys bookend the walk spectrum.

Cabrera was an international pickup backed in 1999 out of the Dominican Republic where he was once considered a good 1B prospect. When he signed with the Orioles, he focused exclusively on pitching. He spent two more seasons at our facilities in the DR until 2001 when he was added to the Gulf Coast roster. He walked nearly a batter per inning, but only had a 5.53 era. A combination of poor control and decent life to his pitches made him somewhat difficult to hit. In '02 he hung out with the fresh college draftees in Bluefield and dominated them with amazing control. In '03, his control lessened at Delmarva and he was knocked around in A ball. In '04 . . . he had 5 solid games and then was promoted to the bigs, which ,at the time and now, seems like a bad idea. The 2004 Orioles did not have a lot of depth and when Matt Riley, who was ineffective, got injured . . . Cabrera was their most competitive option. An inexperienced, large pitcher like Cabrera should have been left in the minors where he could experiment and learn at a slower rate. I assume they valued winning immediately more valuable than letting him develop. Although, he probably never would have been an exceptional pitcher, this started his arbitration clock and perhaps stunted his performance growth. Since then, he showed some promise and had solid outings in '05 and '06. Last year was arguably his worst although he did manage to reduce his pitch counts (almost 9 less per 9 innings) and walks . . . along with reducing his strikeout rate. He can be a frustrating pitcher. He has nasty stuff, but it doesn't translate into much success. Do we have cause for hope?

Hope:
Although his 2007 ERA was 5.55, his FIP was 5.06. That isn't too far from average. His ERA was probably inflated by a poor defense who could not handle his uptick in groundball percentage. He hit 50% groundballs, which is very good and means his slider is working well. Luis Hernandez should help shore up the left side of the infield and drop Cabrera's ERA to something closer to his actual performance. Hernandez' bat probably won't help getting those wins. It also seems that bad luck got to Cabrera as he gave up about 70% more homeruns than normal. That might be a blip and, if it is, he will register an ERA of about 4.50.

Lit Consulted:
Baseball Cube
Baseball Reference
The Hardball Times

Today's Links

Today's Links:

Aaron Crow Biomechanics Report



Kiley McDaniel breaks down potential Orioles draft pick Aaron Crows over at SaberScouting. Crow has great mechanics, but there is a kink in his delivery that decreases his tempo. As he brings his arm fully cocked behind him, he has this weird hitch as he comes back across that slows down his movement and increases stress on his elbow. It probably means nothing, but, yeah, that looks like the only issue with his mechanics. Very sound, but he could improve his speed to the plate by correcting that hitch . . . if possible without affecting his performance. Weight transfer and front-side mechanics are near perfect.
Discussion at the Baltimore Sun

Chorye Spoone Biomechanics Report



Alex Eisenberg over at the Hardball Times breaks down Orioles minor leaguer Chorye Spoone:

Spoone is a workhorse. He'll walk his share of batters, but if he can maintain a solid K rate to go along with the many ground balls he is going to give up, then there is a possibility that he can reach his upside as a No. 2 starter. His mentality and work ethic give him an even better chance of reaching that upside.

Discussion at the Baltimore Sun

Composite Model Prediction for 2008 Season
In 6000 seasons, the O's never won the East. TB have a 1 in 20 chance of winning it. We do not have a 1 in 6000 chance. Yikes. No other team failed to win their division once in 6000 seasons.

3 . . . 2 . . . and . . . We are back.

Ok, I have been thinking about resurrecting this blog. I will probably go in a little bit different of a direction and maybe not be as regular in terms of posting.

First Week Thoughts . . . Orioles 4-1

The Orioles have been able to take advantage of weak schedules and good luck in the past few years. I have not done any research on this, but it seems we tend to have a pretty uneven schedule. The Rays and Mariners qualify as such.

The Rays are a largely unproven team with great upside. Commentators have been lauding the Rays for years and it finally seems like it might be coming together. Andrew Freidman is an amazing GM who knows how to do the little things. His pickup of Carlos Pena (of which he and I were the only ones who liked this kid) and several minor moves have strengthened the team in a cheap and efficient manner. His offseason deal to improve his rotation and infield defense may come with a steep cost if Delmon Young figures out what a strike zone actually is or develops his contact rate on par with Vlad. Often focused on money, as pretty much all teams are, they sent Evan Longoria down to AAA. The intent is to strangle in another arbitration year as he is ready for the show. This will cost the team a win or two, which is not really significant as they should finish the season in the realm of .500. 2010 is their season. Still, they are not a strong team, so taking a game isn't big news. It sure is an accomplishment, but we really need to recognize that the O's just are not a strong team this season.

The Mariners are a team that everyone wants to win. People love this team and remark how they pulled together in the face of great adversity and won 88 games. They did two unlikely things: they busted their composite projected record (76 predicted wins) and they busted their pythagorean runs for and against record (80 predicted wins). About 10% of teams do this. They are just simple outliers. It most likely isn't a skill as teams do not sustain this type of production in consecutive years. Anyway, the projection systems say that the Mariners will win 79 games +/- 6. That isn't a strong team. We just won our third straight against them.

Although the Mariners is not a strong team. Our performance is definately something to celebrate. Our bullpen is solid. Our players have been able to hit in a timely fashion (which may or may not be a skill . . . it certainly is a skill that is not very dependable). On the downside, our starting pitching has been bad. Trashcel somehow manages to go deep pitch-wise into games. I still am not sure how he does it. Hopefully, we can turn him into more prospects at the deadline. I don't trust him. Anyway, he needs to go deeper into games or we will see something similar to last year when Sammy burned out our pen. I think our pen is better this year, but if you have to cover 4 innings everyday. That is going to where your guys out. Loewen is what he has been in the past. He has very high potential, but he needs to get more experience. He may always have control issues though. For the past two years . . . I think him and Cabrera share a lot in common. Guthrie helped out today by going a strong 7.

Hopefully, the Orioles become one of those weird 10% teams that do something completely astonishing. Of course, I am not aware of any team achieving 30 games over their given prediction.